Helmond Sport and VVV Venlo face a finely balanced encounter, with the model favouring a home win. The probabilities are 40% for Helmond Sport, 29% for a draw and 31% for VVV Venlo. The expected total goals hover at 2.6, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.7% chance. Helmond Sport, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.36 goals scored and 1.27 conceded, while VVV Venlo, on the road, averages 1.36 scored and 1.64 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.4% with a 5% edge), Under 6.5 (97.8% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.3% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.3% with a 6% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (96.2% with a 6% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.9% with a 6% edge) and Under 5.5 (94.0% with a 6% edge). Helmond Sport is coming off a defeat to Jong Ajax, while VVV Venlo is riding a three-game winning streak.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Helmond Sport win
40.1%
Avg Implied 35.9% · @ 2.58
Edge
+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.70
Bet365
2.70
Betano
2.65
1xBet
2.62
William Hil
2.62
Draw
28.6%
Avg Implied 26.9% · @ 3.44
Edge
+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Dafabet
3.60
Pinnacle
3.54
Superbet
3.50
VVV Venlo win
31.2%
Avg Implied 37.2% · @ 2.49
Edge
-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.57
10Bet
2.55
Dafabet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.53
Superbet
2.52
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Helmond Sport
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.80
1.40
1.67
0.73
1.93
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
3.12
1.50
2.75
0.75
3.50
vs Similar (22)
1.05
1.32
1.36
1.27
0.73
1.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (VVV Venlo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VVV Venlo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.60
1.56
1.75
1.21
1.43
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.83
0.33
3.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (24)
1.62
1.54
1.85
1.46
1.36
1.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Helmond Sport) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.8%
@ 1.17-4.9%
Under 1.5
25.2%
@ 4.59+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Pinnacle
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Under
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Pinnacle
4.85
BetVictor
4.75
Superbet
4.60
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.6%
@ 1.60-10.0%
Under 2.5
51.4%
@ 2.27+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.64
10Bet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
Under
Betfair
2.38
Pinnacle
2.32
Betano
2.30
Bet365
2.30
Marathonbet
2.27
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.8%
@ 2.44-11.3%
Under 3.5
73.2%
@ 1.50+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.65
Betfair
2.55
10Bet
2.50
Pinnacle
2.48
Betano
2.42
Under
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.53
BetVictor
1.50
Both teams to score
Yes
54.3%
@ 1.48-8.2%
No
45.7%
@ 2.46+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.53
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Superbet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.48
No
Betano
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Bet365
2.50
William Hil
2.50
Superbet
2.47
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%@ 6.56+6.9%
1-0
9.0%@ 10.71+4.8%
2-1
8.7%@ 9.09+3.8%
0-0
8.5%@ 12.74+5.0%
0-1
7.6%@ 10.56+3.4%
1-2
7.5%@ 8.94+2.6%
2-0
7.2%@ 14.42+4.1%
0-2
5.4%@ 13.82+2.1%
Helmond Sport goals ↓
VVV Venlo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
7.6%
5.4%
2.2%
0.7%
1
9.0%
14%
7.5%
3.1%
0.9%
2
7.2%
8.7%
5.3%
2.1%
0.6%
3
3.4%
4.1%
2.5%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.2%
1.4%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Helmond Sport goals (down), columns = VVV Venlo goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Helmond Sport is 0.16 points worse than VVV Venlo in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Helmond Sport is 0.21 goals worse than VVV Venlo in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Helmond Sport is 0.11 goals worse than VVV Venlo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.53).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Helmond Sport is 0.2 percentage points worse than VVV Venlo in terms of average possession (49% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Helmond Sport
For 4.7 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 11.2 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
VVV Venlo
For 4.1 · Against 6.5 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 12.2 · Total 22.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Helmond Sport
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.9
10.5
3.2
3.2
3.3
25.4
25.5
25.3
vs Stronger (11)
11.2
10.6
11.7
3.5
3.2
3.7
23.7
21.6
25.5
vs Similar (39)
10.5
10.9
10.1
3.2
3.1
3.2
25.9
26.5
25.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
60%
72%
48%
46%
44%
48%
80%
84%
76%
% under line
40%
28%
52%
54%
56%
52%
20%
16%
24%
This opponent (VVV Venlo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VVV Venlo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
10.7
11.8
3.4
3.3
3.5
23.7
22.2
25.3
vs Stronger (8)
9.8
10.2
9.0
2.6
2.0
3.7
23.2
20.0
28.7
vs Similar (42)
11.5
10.8
12.2
3.5
3.6
3.5
23.8
22.7
24.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
70%
65%
75%
40%
38%
42%
58%
50%
67%
% under line
30%
35%
25%
60%
62%
58%
42%
50%
33%
This opponent (Helmond Sport) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.2
FC OSS
11.9
De Graafschap
11.9
Dordrecht
11.3
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Heracles
10.9
Helmond Sport
10.7
Jong PSV U21
10.6
Jong AZ
10.6
FC Eindhoven
10.6
Jong Ajax
10.5
Emmen
10.3
FC Volendam
10.3
MVV
10.2
Vitesse
10.0
Waalwijk
10.0
Roda
9.9
NAC Breda
9.8
Jong Utrecht
9.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.5
Dordrecht
4.3
FC OSS
4.1
Emmen
3.9
NAC Breda
3.9
Jong Ajax
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
VVV Venlo
3.5
Heracles
3.5
Jong AZ
3.5
FC Volendam
3.4
Roda
3.3
Helmond Sport
3.3
Waalwijk
3.3
De Graafschap
3.3
Jong PSV U21
3.2
MVV
3.2
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Jong Utrecht
3.0
Almere City FC
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.0
Vitesse
26.7
Dordrecht
25.8
Emmen
25.7
Jong Utrecht
25.5
Helmond Sport
25.4
Jong Ajax
25.0
Roda
24.8
Heracles
24.1
Jong PSV U21
23.8
VVV Venlo
23.7
Jong AZ
23.4
Den Bosch
23.3
NAC Breda
22.9
FC Eindhoven
22.9
De Graafschap
22.7
MVV
22.5
Waalwijk
22.4
FC Volendam
22.3
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
61.6%
@ 1.56+2.5%
Under 9.5
38.4%
@ 2.26-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.61
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.56
Betano
1.55
Unibet
1.49
Under
Unibet
2.38
Betano
2.35
Pinnacle
2.22
Marathonbet
2.18
1xBet
2.15
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
47.3%
Under 3.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
75.1%
Under 21.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Helmond Sport or Draw
69.4%
Avg Implied 62.7% · @ 1.49
Edge
+6.7%
40%
29%
31%
covers Helmond Sport + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.52
William Hil
1.50
Betfair
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Helmond Sport or VVV Venlo
72.2%
Avg Implied 73.3% · @ 1.27
Edge
-1.1%
40%
29%
31%
covers Helmond Sport + VVV Venlo
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Draw or VVV Venlo
58.4%
Avg Implied 64.0% · @ 1.46
Edge
-5.6%
40%
29%
31%
covers Draw + VVV Venlo
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.50
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.44
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Helmond Sport over/under 0.5
Over
77.5%
@ 1.20+0.5%
Under
22.5%
@ 4.01-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.21
Betfair
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.24
BetVictor
4.10
Betano
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Helmond Sport over/under 1.5
Over
43.9%
@ 2.07-1.2%
Under
56.1%
@ 1.70+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.12
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
1xBet
2.08
Under
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
1xBet
1.70
BetVictor
1.70
Helmond Sport over/under 2.5
Over
18.9%
@ 4.37-2.3%
Under
81.1%
@ 1.17+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
1xBet
4.40
Under
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Helmond Sport over/under 3.5
Over
6.4%
@ 9.60-3.4%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.04+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
9.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.03
VVV Venlo over/under 0.5
Over
71.4%
@ 1.20-6.0%
Under
28.6%
@ 4.09+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Under
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Betano
4.05
VVV Venlo over/under 1.5
Over
35.5%
@ 2.02-10.4%
Under
64.5%
@ 1.72+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.10
Unibet
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.03
1xBet
2.01
Under
Pinnacle
1.77
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
VVV Venlo over/under 2.5
Over
13.2%
@ 4.23-8.7%
Under
86.8%
@ 1.19+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
10Bet
4.33
Unibet
4.30
Under
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
VVV Venlo over/under 3.5
Over
3.8%
@ 9.36-6.2%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.04+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
9.60
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
8.70
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Helmond Sport, so a minus line means Helmond Sport give that many goals of a start and VVV Venlo receive them. At -1, Helmond Sport must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Helmond Sport win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Helmond Sport)
Helmond Sport -2
8.2%
@ 9.48-1.2%
Draw -2
12.8%
@ 6.68-0.4%
VVV Venlo +2
79.1%
@ 1.14+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
12.00
Unibet
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Superbet
9.10
Marathonbet
6.30
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
6.80
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
4.85
Away
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
Handicap -1 (Helmond Sport)
Helmond Sport -1
20.9%
@ 4.83+2.4%
Draw -1
20.6%
@ 4.40+0.3%
VVV Venlo +1
58.4%
@ 1.47-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Bet365
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.75
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.00
Away
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.47
Betfair
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Handicap +1 (Helmond Sport)
Helmond Sport +1
69.4%
@ 1.48+9.2%
Draw +1
17.1%
@ 4.36-3.3%
VVV Venlo -1
13.5%
@ 4.59-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.47
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.40
Superbet
4.35
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Away
10Bet
4.75
Bet365
4.75
Unibet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Handicap +2 (Helmond Sport)
Helmond Sport +2
86.5%
@ 1.15+8.4%
Draw +2
9.0%
@ 7.06-3.7%
VVV Venlo -2
4.5%
@ 9.70-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.20
Superbet
6.60
Unibet
6.50
Away
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
9.50
Marathonbet
9.20
Superbet
8.80
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Helmond Sport
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.80
0.73
0.73
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.62
0.75
1.25
0.25
2.00
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.50
0.73
0.55
0.45
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (VVV Venlo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VVV Venlo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.69
0.56
0.29
0.64
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.58
0.85
0.46
0.27
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Helmond Sport) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.8%
@ 1.29-4.5%
Under 0.5
32.2%
@ 3.35+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Under
William Hil
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.45
BetVictor
3.40
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.9%
@ 2.30-8.4%
Under 1.5
68.1%
@ 1.55+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Pinnacle
2.38
Unibet
2.35
1xBet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.32
Under
Superbet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.58
William Hil
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.3%
@ 5.28-6.3%
Under 2.5
88.7%
@ 1.12+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.75
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Helmond Sport over/under 0.5 HT
Over
44.8%
@ 1.89-4.2%
Under
55.2%
@ 1.82+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Unibet
1.88
Under
Pinnacle
1.87
Superbet
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Betano
1.82
Unibet
1.79
Helmond Sport over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.6%
@ 5.58-5.1%
Under
88.4%
@ 1.11+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.90
Marathonbet
5.90
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.40
Superbet
5.20
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Helmond Sport over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.7%
@ 14.83-3.7%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.01+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
VVV Venlo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
44.9%
@ 1.87-4.6%
Under
55.1%
@ 1.83+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Unibet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Pinnacle
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
Superbet
1.87
10Bet
1.83
Betano
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
VVV Venlo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.8%
@ 5.42-5.3%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.12+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.65
1xBet
5.65
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.20
Superbet
5.10
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
VVV Venlo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
@ 14.75-4.8%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Helmond Sport
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.93
0.33
1.07
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.50
0.75
1.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.82
0.64
0.73
0.27
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (VVV Venlo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VVV Venlo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.00
0.88
1.19
0.93
0.79
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.17
0.33
2.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (24)
1.04
0.96
1.00
1.00
1.09
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Helmond Sport) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.7%
@ 1.16-3.7%
Under 0.5
23.3%
@ 4.74+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.13
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betano
4.80
Marathonbet
4.70
1xBet
4.70
Superbet
4.65
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.9%
@ 1.78-7.3%
Under 1.5
55.1%
@ 1.94+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.77
Under
Betano
2.02
Bet365
2.00
William Hil
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.1%
@ 3.37-10.4%
Under 2.5
82.9%
@ 1.28+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.50
William Hil
3.40
Marathonbet
3.36
1xBet
3.36
Superbet
3.35
Under
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Helmond Sport over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.5%
@ 1.59-6.9%
Under
48.5%
@ 2.24+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.61
1xBet
1.60
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Under
Betano
2.30
10Bet
2.25
1xBet
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Helmond Sport over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.0%
@ 3.88-5.9%
Under
82.0%
@ 1.22+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.10
Superbet
3.90
1xBet
3.90
10Bet
3.80
Betano
3.70
Under
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Helmond Sport over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.1%
@ 9.58-5.6%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.04+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
VVV Venlo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.8%
@ 1.58-3.8%
Under
45.2%
@ 2.24+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Under
Betano
2.30
10Bet
2.25
1xBet
2.20
Superbet
2.20
VVV Venlo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.7%
@ 3.78-8.8%
Under
84.3%
@ 1.22+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.82
1xBet
3.80
10Bet
3.80
Betano
3.65
Under
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
VVV Venlo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.7%
@ 9.50-6.1%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.04+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
10.00
Superbet
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+4.8%
Under 6.5
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Betfair
1.01
+4.2%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.7%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
-
-
+6.1%
Away under 3.5 goals
96.2%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
+6.2%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
-
-
+5.6%
Under 5.5
94.0%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
BetVictor
1.04
+6.0%
Home under 3.5 goals
93.6%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.03
+3.4%
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.7%
1.12
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.11
+6.3%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.4%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
+5.1%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.2%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
+5.3%
Away under 2.5 goals
86.8%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
+8.7%
Over 19.5 fouls
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.5%
1.15
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
+8.4%
Under 4.5
85.7%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+7.2%
Under 5.5 cards
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.3%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
+8.8%
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.9%
1.28
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.25
+10.4%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.0%
1.22
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
+5.9%
Home under 2.5 goals
81.1%
1.17
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+2.3%
Away +2 handicap
79.1%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
+1.6%
Home over 0.5 goals
77.5%
1.20
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.21
Betfair
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
+0.5%
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.7%
1.16
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.13
-3.7%
Over 21.5 fouls
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.8%
1.17
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Pinnacle
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
-4.9%
Under 3.5
73.2%
1.50
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.53
BetVictor
1.50
+11.3%
Over 8.5 corners
73.2%
1.31
1xBet
1.33
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
Unibet
1.29
-
+3.6%
Home or Away
72.2%
1.27
Betano
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
-1.1%
Under 4.5 cards
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.4%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
-6.0%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Helmond Sport
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Brian Koglin25%
Sem Dekkers25%
Mauro Lenaerts25%
Menno Bergsen0%
Michel Ludwig0%
Labinot Bajrami0%
Helgi Fróði Ingason0%
Xander van der Velde0%
Kiton Ekoli0%
Tijn Landheer0%
Livio Cicero0%
Wassim Lantaki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Wassim Lantaki50%
Brian Koglin25%
Michel Ludwig25%
Labinot Bajrami25%
Helgi Fróði Ingason25%
Mauro Lenaerts25%
Menno Bergsen0%
Sem Dekkers0%
Xander van der Velde0%
Kiton Ekoli0%
Tijn Landheer0%
Livio Cicero0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Helgi Fróði Ingason25%
Livio Cicero25%
Wassim Lantaki25%
Brian Koglin0%
Menno Bergsen0%
Michel Ludwig0%
Labinot Bajrami0%
Sem Dekkers0%
Mauro Lenaerts0%
Xander van der Velde0%
Kiton Ekoli0%
Tijn Landheer0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Brian Koglin0%
Menno Bergsen0%
Michel Ludwig0%
Labinot Bajrami0%
Sem Dekkers0%
Helgi Fróði Ingason0%
Mauro Lenaerts0%
Xander van der Velde0%
Kiton Ekoli0%
Tijn Landheer0%
Livio Cicero0%
Wassim Lantaki0%
VVV Venlo
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dean Zandbergen50%
Edhy Zuliani50%
Devy Hendrix33%
Nassim Ait Mouhou33%
Luis Görlich25%
Raf Vullers25%
Alex Schalk0%
Youri Schoonderwaldt0%
Gabin Blancquart0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Mohammed Odriss0%
Lars de Blok0%
Tristan Schenkhuizen0%
Tijn Joosten0%
Thomas Janssen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luis Görlich75%
Edhy Zuliani50%
Alex Schalk33%
Mohammed Odriss25%
Thomas Janssen25%
Youri Schoonderwaldt0%
Dean Zandbergen0%
Devy Hendrix0%
Gabin Blancquart0%
Nassim Ait Mouhou0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Lars de Blok0%
Tristan Schenkhuizen0%
Tijn Joosten0%
Raf Vullers0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lars de Blok75%
Alex Schalk67%
Devy Hendrix33%
Edhy Zuliani25%
Mohammed Odriss25%
Youri Schoonderwaldt0%
Luis Görlich0%
Dean Zandbergen0%
Gabin Blancquart0%
Nassim Ait Mouhou0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Tristan Schenkhuizen0%
Tijn Joosten0%
Thomas Janssen0%
Raf Vullers0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dean Zandbergen50%
Tristan Schenkhuizen25%
Alex Schalk0%
Youri Schoonderwaldt0%
Luis Görlich0%
Devy Hendrix0%
Gabin Blancquart0%
Nassim Ait Mouhou0%
Edhy Zuliani0%
Eanna Clancy0%
Mohammed Odriss0%
Lars de Blok0%
Tijn Joosten0%
Thomas Janssen0%
Raf Vullers0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
Helmond Sport and VVV Venlo have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Helmond Sport and VVV Venlo have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
Helmond Sport and VVV Venlo have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Helmond Sport and VVV Venlo have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Heracles
MVV
Almere City FC
Emmen
Jong PSV U21
Vitesse
Roda
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
Jong AZ
Waalwijk
Den Bosch
Jong Ajax
Dordrecht
FC OSS
FC Eindhoven
De Graafschap
Jong Utrecht