Helsingborg are favoured to win, with a 47 % chance of taking the match home, 26 % for a draw and 27 % for United Nordic to come away. The model expects 2.9 goals in total, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 24 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which the model assigns a 12.4 % probability. Helsingborg, playing at home against a similarly strong opponent, average 1.79 goals scored and 1.43 conceded, while United Nordic, on the road, average 1.0 scored and 1.38 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls (89.4 %), Under 5.5 cards (84.6 %), Under 11.5 corners (81.0 %), Over 1.5 (79.7 %) hit, Over 21.5 fouls (79.5 %), Under 10.5 corners (71.5 %), and Under 4.5 cards (70.9 %). Helsingborg have slipped into a five-match losing streak, whereas United Nordic remain unbeaten in their last five, adding intrigue to this encounter.
Results analysis
In a surprising turn, the pre-match favourite, Helsingborg, failed to secure the win, ending the game in a 1-1 draw. The model had tipped a home victory with a 47 % probability, but that call proved wrong. The match finished evenly, with both sides scoring once. The model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals at 79.7 %, hit, as the total of two goals met the threshold. Helsingborg’s recent form, after a 1-3 loss to Oddevold, had been shaky, while United Nordic, unbeaten in five outings, showed resilience. The outcome underscores the unpredictability of the Superettan fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Helsingborg win✗ Miss
47.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
United Nordic win✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Helsingborg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.87
1.79
1.43
1.38
2.25
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
4.00
-
-
0.33
4.00
vs Similar (26)
1.77
1.65
1.79
1.43
1.75
1.92
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (United Nordic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
United Nordic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.41
1.89
1.44
1.00
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.47
1.41
1.89
1.44
1.00
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
29% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Helsingborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.7%
Under 1.5
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.5%
Under 2.5
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.1%
Under 3.5
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.5%
No
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.4%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
8.1%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
6.9%
0-0
6.6%
2-2
5.8%
0-1
5.6%
Helsingborg goals ↓
United Nordic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
5.6%
4.1%
1.7%
0.5%
1
8.1%
12%
6.9%
2.8%
0.9%
2
7.7%
9.5%
5.8%
2.4%
0.7%
3
4.3%
5.3%
3.2%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.8%
2.2%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Helsingborg goals (down), columns = United Nordic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
IFK Norrkoping
2.20
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.79
Falkenbergs FF
1.75
Ostersunds FK
1.70
United Nordic
1.60
Osters IF
1.53
Landskrona BoIS
1.50
Oddevold
1.45
Sandviken
1.30
Helsingborg
1.25
Ljungskile SK
1.20
Norrby IF
1.15
IK brage
1.05
IFK Varnamo
0.95
Orebro SK
0.84
GIF Sundsvall
0.53
Helsingborg is 0.35 points worse than United Nordic in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
IFK Norrkoping
1.90
Falkenbergs FF
1.85
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.79
IK brage
1.70
Sandviken
1.65
Oddevold
1.65
Helsingborg
1.65
Osters IF
1.58
United Nordic
1.55
Ostersunds FK
1.45
Ljungskile SK
1.35
Landskrona BoIS
1.30
Norrby IF
1.25
IFK Varnamo
1.20
Orebro SK
0.95
GIF Sundsvall
0.74
Helsingborg is 0.10 goals better than United Nordic in terms of goals scored per game (1.65 vs 1.55).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
IFK Norrkoping
0.60
Landskrona BoIS
1.05
Ostersunds FK
1.10
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.26
Norrby IF
1.35
Ljungskile SK
1.35
United Nordic
1.35
Oddevold
1.40
Falkenbergs FF
1.45
Sandviken
1.50
Osters IF
1.53
Orebro SK
1.63
IFK Varnamo
1.90
IK brage
1.90
Helsingborg
2.00
GIF Sundsvall
2.26
Helsingborg is 0.65 goals worse than United Nordic in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.35).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Landskrona BoIS
58%
Sandviken
55%
IFK Norrkoping
55%
Ostersunds FK
53%
IFK Varnamo
53%
Ljungskile SK
51%
Osters IF
50%
United Nordic
50%
Falkenbergs FF
50%
Oddevold
50%
Orebro SK
50%
IK brage
48%
Varbergs BoIS FC
47%
Helsingborg
45%
Norrby IF
44%
GIF Sundsvall
41%
Helsingborg is 5.1 percentage points worse than United Nordic in terms of average possession (45% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Helsingborg
For 4.8 · Against 5.7 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 11.7 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
United Nordic
For 4.3 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 15.0 · Total 29.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Helsingborg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.9
8.8
1.6
1.5
1.7
23.7
22.8
24.2
vs Stronger (4)
7.0
7.0
-
1.5
6.0
0.0
20.0
20.0
-
vs Similar (44)
9.2
10.3
8.5
1.6
1.4
1.8
23.5
23.5
23.6
vs Weaker (2)
12.0
-
12.0
2.5
0.0
5.0
30.0
-
30.0
% over line
50%
43%
55%
26%
21%
31%
53%
60%
50%
% under line
50%
57%
45%
74%
79%
69%
47%
40%
50%
This opponent (United Nordic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
United Nordic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (17)
9.1
10.8
7.0
1.1
1.0
1.2
29.8
27.5
32.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
9.1
10.8
7.0
1.1
1.0
1.2
29.8
27.5
32.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
75%
33%
12%
11%
12%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
43%
25%
67%
88%
89%
88%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Helsingborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Osters IF
11.8
IFK Norrkoping
11.5
IFK Varnamo
11.0
Helsingborg
10.4
Landskrona BoIS
10.3
IK brage
10.3
Ljungskile SK
10.2
Varbergs BoIS FC
10.1
GIF Sundsvall
10.0
Sandviken
9.9
Oddevold
9.5
Orebro SK
9.4
Ostersunds FK
9.2
United Nordic
9.1
Norrby IF
9.0
Falkenbergs FF
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
IFK Norrkoping
4.2
Helsingborg
4.1
Landskrona BoIS
4.0
Osters IF
4.0
Ljungskile SK
3.8
Varbergs BoIS FC
3.8
Norrby IF
3.8
Orebro SK
3.7
IK brage
3.6
Ostersunds FK
3.5
IFK Varnamo
3.3
Sandviken
3.3
GIF Sundsvall
3.1
Oddevold
2.9
Falkenbergs FF
2.8
United Nordic
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
United Nordic
29.8
IFK Norrkoping
27.0
Varbergs BoIS FC
26.6
Ljungskile SK
26.6
Osters IF
25.4
Ostersunds FK
25.3
Norrby IF
24.3
Helsingborg
24.2
IK brage
24.1
Landskrona BoIS
23.9
Orebro SK
23.7
Sandviken
23.5
Falkenbergs FF
23.3
IFK Varnamo
22.8
Oddevold
21.4
GIF Sundsvall
21.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
40.3%
Under 9.5
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
48.1%
Under 3.5
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
79.5%
Under 21.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Helsingborg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.64
0.57
0.75
1.06
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.69
0.64
0.57
1.00
0.83
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (United Nordic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
United Nordic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.59
0.67
0.56
0.25
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.59
0.67
0.56
0.25
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
59% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Helsingborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Helsingborg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Helsingborg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Helsingborg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
United Nordic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
United Nordic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
United Nordic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Helsingborg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.03
1.14
0.86
0.62
1.19
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.00
-
-
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.96
0.96
1.14
0.86
0.75
1.08
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (United Nordic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
United Nordic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.82
1.22
0.89
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.00
0.82
1.22
0.89
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Helsingborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Helsingborg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Helsingborg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Helsingborg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
United Nordic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
United Nordic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
United Nordic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (25)
€9m
HEL (25)
€7m
LB (20)
€6m
VBF (24)
€6m
FF (19)
€5m
OI (23)
€5m
ODD (23)
€5m
IV (21)
€5m
OS (23)
€5m
IB (22)
€4m
SAN (20)
€4m
OF (21)
€4m
GS (21)
€4m
LS (22)
€3m
UN (17)
€3m
NI (17)
€3m
Helsingborg's squad is €3m more valuable than United Nordic's (€7m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (8)
€3m
IV (7)
€2m
HEL (8)
€2m
FF (8)
€2m
LB (5)
€2m
VBF (7)
€2m
OI (7)
€2m
ODD (6)
€1m
SAN (5)
€1m
OS (6)
€1m
GS (8)
€1m
NI (6)
€1m
LS (7)
€1m
OF (5)
€1m
IB (4)
€1m
UN (4)
€0m
Helsingborg's attack is €1m more valuable than United Nordic's (€2m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (8)
€3m
HEL (7)
€2m
VBF (8)
€2m
LB (7)
€2m
OF (6)
€2m
OI (6)
€2m
IB (7)
€1m
ODD (7)
€1m
SAN (6)
€1m
OS (5)
€1m
GS (4)
€1m
LS (4)
€1m
UN (4)
€1m
IV (4)
€1m
FF (2)
€1m
NI (3)
€0m
Helsingborg's midfield is €2m more valuable than United Nordic's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (9)
€3m
FF (9)
€3m
OS (12)
€3m
ODD (10)
€3m
HEL (10)
€2m
LB (8)
€2m
IB (11)
€2m
VBF (9)
€2m
OI (10)
€2m
UN (9)
€2m
SAN (9)
€2m
IV (10)
€2m
OF (10)
€2m
GS (9)
€2m
LS (11)
€2m
NI (8)
€1m
Helsingborg and United Nordic have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Sweden: Superettan 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Sweden: Superettan stats & trends →