Heracles, riding a four-game winning streak, are set to host De Graafschap, who have just endured three consecutive defeats. The model favours a home win, with a 49% chance, a 24% chance of a draw and a 28% chance of an away victory. The expected total goals is 3.5, and the most probable total is three goals, a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.1% chance.
Heracles average two goals scored and 1.7 conceded at home against similar-strength opponents, while De Graafschap average 1.64 scored and 1.79 conceded on the road against comparable teams. The model’s selections include: Away under 2.5 HT goals99.2%, Under 7.597.4%, Away under 2.5 2H goals96.6%, Away under 3.5 goals93.8%, Under 6.593.5%, Away under 1.5 HT goals93.1%, Away under 1.5 2H goals89.5%, and Home under 2.5 HT goals89.2%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Heracles win
46.7%
Avg Implied 63.7% · @ 1.45
Edge
-17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Betano
1.50
Dafabet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Draw
23.6%
Avg Implied 19.1% · @ 4.85
Edge
+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
5.20
Superbet
5.10
10Bet
5.10
Betfair
5.00
Pinnacle
4.95
De Graafschap win
29.7%
Avg Implied 17.2% · @ 5.38
Edge
+12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
5.85
1xBet
5.63
Dafabet
5.60
BetVictor
5.50
William Hil
5.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Heracles
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
2.17
1.67
1.73
1.67
2.60
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
2.86
0.25
2.00
1.67
4.00
vs Similar (23)
1.91
1.96
2.18
1.64
1.67
2.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (De Graafschap) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
De Graafschap
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.80
2.13
1.87
1.67
1.73
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
1.90
1.83
2.13
1.87
1.64
1.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Heracles) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.4%
@ 1.06-0.0%
Under 1.5
12.6%
@ 7.39+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Under
Betfair
8.50
BetVictor
8.00
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
68.1%
@ 1.29-4.4%
Under 2.5
31.9%
@ 3.38+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.66
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.45
BetVictor
3.40
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
46.5%
@ 1.76-6.9%
Under 3.5
53.5%
@ 2.01+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.89
10Bet
1.80
Superbet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Under
Pinnacle
2.16
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
Betano
2.05
Bet365
2.00
Both teams to score
Yes
68.5%
@ 1.40+2.6%
No
31.5%
@ 2.72-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.48
Unibet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
William Hil
1.40
Bet365
1.40
No
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.83
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.72
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%@ 10.11+5.5%
2-1
8.9%@ 8.33+3.5%
1-2
7.0%@ 15.93+4.2%
2-2
6.9%@ 12.12+3.1%
3-1
5.8%@ 9.68+1.1%
2-0
5.8%@ 10.62+1.5%
1-0
5.0%@ 12.88+1.4%
3-2
4.5%@ 13.87+1.2%
Heracles goals ↓
De Graafschap goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
3.7%
3.6%
1.8%
0.7%
1
5.0%
10.0%
7.0%
3.6%
1.4%
2
5.8%
8.9%
6.9%
3.5%
1.4%
3
3.8%
5.8%
4.5%
2.3%
0.9%
4
1.9%
2.9%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Heracles goals (down), columns = De Graafschap goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Heracles is 0.07 points worse than De Graafschap in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Heracles is 0.19 goals worse than De Graafschap in terms of goals scored per game (1.74 vs 1.93).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Heracles is 0.13 goals better than De Graafschap in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Heracles
For 6.5 · Against 5.5 · Total 12.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 0.9 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 11.4 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
De Graafschap
For 5.4 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 9.9 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heracles
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
10.2
11.5
3.4
3.6
3.3
24.1
23.5
24.7
vs Stronger (16)
9.9
9.9
10.0
3.8
4.3
3.1
23.3
24.1
22.3
vs Similar (34)
11.3
10.4
12.0
3.2
3.1
3.4
24.5
23.1
25.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
43%
63%
42%
48%
37%
70%
65%
74%
% under line
46%
57%
37%
58%
52%
63%
30%
35%
26%
This opponent (De Graafschap) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
De Graafschap
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.9
11.7
12.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
22.8
22.0
23.5
vs Stronger (2)
13.5
12.0
15.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
vs Similar (48)
11.8
11.7
11.9
3.1
3.1
3.1
22.9
22.1
23.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
73%
65%
80%
38%
33%
42%
58%
52%
64%
% under line
27%
35%
20%
62%
67%
58%
42%
48%
36%
This opponent (Heracles) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.2
FC OSS
11.9
De Graafschap
11.9
Dordrecht
11.3
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Heracles
10.9
Helmond Sport
10.7
Jong PSV U21
10.6
Jong AZ
10.6
FC Eindhoven
10.6
Jong Ajax
10.5
Emmen
10.3
FC Volendam
10.3
MVV
10.2
Vitesse
10.0
Waalwijk
10.0
Roda
9.9
NAC Breda
9.8
Jong Utrecht
9.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.5
Dordrecht
4.3
FC OSS
4.1
Emmen
3.9
NAC Breda
3.9
Jong Ajax
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
VVV Venlo
3.5
Heracles
3.5
Jong AZ
3.5
FC Volendam
3.4
Roda
3.3
Helmond Sport
3.3
Waalwijk
3.3
De Graafschap
3.3
Jong PSV U21
3.2
MVV
3.2
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Jong Utrecht
3.0
Almere City FC
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.0
Vitesse
26.7
Dordrecht
25.8
Emmen
25.7
Jong Utrecht
25.5
Helmond Sport
25.4
Jong Ajax
25.0
Roda
24.8
Heracles
24.1
Jong PSV U21
23.8
VVV Venlo
23.7
Jong AZ
23.4
Den Bosch
23.3
NAC Breda
22.9
FC Eindhoven
22.9
De Graafschap
22.7
MVV
22.5
Waalwijk
22.4
FC Volendam
22.3
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
67.1%
@ 1.42+2.5%
Under 9.5
32.9%
@ 2.60-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.50
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Under
Betano
2.80
Marathonbet
2.67
1xBet
2.53
Unibet
2.38
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
41.3%
Under 3.5
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
73.4%
Under 21.5
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Heracles or Draw
72.9%
Avg Implied 82.5% · @ 1.13
Edge
-9.6%
47%
24%
30%
covers Heracles + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
Betfair
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Heracles or De Graafschap
76.7%
Avg Implied 81.6% · @ 1.14
Edge
-4.8%
47%
24%
30%
covers Heracles + De Graafschap
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Draw or De Graafschap
50.4%
Avg Implied 35.9% · @ 2.60
Edge
+14.5%
47%
24%
30%
covers Draw + De Graafschap
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.72
10Bet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
SBO
2.62
Betano
2.62
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Heracles over/under 0.5
Over
86.8%
@ 1.05-3.0%
Under
13.2%
@ 9.22+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Under
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
9.00
1xBet
9.00
Betano
7.60
Heracles over/under 1.5
Over
60.1%
@ 1.30-11.5%
Under
39.9%
@ 3.26+11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.35
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.50
Pinnacle
3.47
Superbet
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Marathonbet
3.26
Heracles over/under 2.5
Over
33.0%
@ 1.94-14.9%
Under
67.0%
@ 1.78+14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
Betano
1.98
BetVictor
1.95
10Bet
1.93
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Heracles over/under 3.5
Over
14.7%
@ 3.37-12.8%
Under
85.3%
@ 1.28+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.60
Pinnacle
3.52
10Bet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.40
Under
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
De Graafschap over/under 0.5
Over
77.0%
@ 1.31+6.4%
Under
23.0%
@ 3.15-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.38
1xBet
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Unibet
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.46
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.26
Betfair
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
De Graafschap over/under 1.5
Over
43.2%
@ 2.51+6.2%
Under
56.8%
@ 1.48-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.72
1xBet
2.56
Unibet
2.55
10Bet
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.55
Marathonbet
1.53
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.50
De Graafschap over/under 2.5
Over
18.4%
@ 5.74+2.3%
Under
81.6%
@ 1.10-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
6.50
10Bet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.80
BetVictor
5.75
Under
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
De Graafschap over/under 3.5
Over
6.2%
@ 14.67-0.3%
Under
93.8%
@ 1.02+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Heracles, so a minus line means Heracles give that many goals of a start and De Graafschap receive them. At -1, Heracles must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Heracles win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Heracles)
Heracles -2
14.2%
@ 3.34-12.7%
Draw -2
15.2%
@ 4.43-5.1%
De Graafschap +2
70.6%
@ 1.70+17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.28
Unibet
3.25
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Away
Superbet
1.75
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Unibet
1.68
Betfair
1.67
Handicap -1 (Heracles)
Heracles -1
29.4%
@ 2.04-14.5%
Draw -1
20.2%
@ 4.04-1.9%
De Graafschap +1
50.4%
@ 2.63+16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.13
10Bet
2.05
Bet365
2.05
Superbet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
3.98
10Bet
3.95
Unibet
3.90
Away
Superbet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
10Bet
2.65
Unibet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.52
Handicap +1 (Heracles)
Heracles +1
72.9%
@ 1.12-7.3%
Draw +1
14.4%
@ 7.80+2.9%
De Graafschap -1
12.6%
@ 10.82+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.10
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.20
Away
Bet365
12.00
Unibet
11.00
Betfair
11.00
Marathonbet
9.30
Handicap +2 (Heracles)
Heracles +2
87.4%
@ 1.03-3.4%
Draw +2
8.0%
@ 16.00+2.2%
De Graafschap -2
4.6%
@ 27.50+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Away
Bet365
29.00
Betfair
26.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Heracles
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.90
0.73
0.73
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.71
0.00
1.50
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.96
0.65
1.00
0.45
0.92
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (De Graafschap) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
De Graafschap
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.60
0.87
0.53
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
0.86
0.59
0.87
0.53
0.86
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Heracles) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.6%
@ 1.16-0.5%
Under 0.5
20.4%
@ 4.66+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Under
Betfair
5.20
Bet365
5.00
William Hil
4.80
BetVictor
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.9%
@ 1.83-9.1%
Under 1.5
58.1%
@ 1.90+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.91
SBO
1.89
1xBet
1.87
Superbet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.97
Betfair
1.95
10Bet
1.95
SBO
1.93
William Hil
1.91
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.3%
@ 3.54-3.8%
Under 2.5
77.7%
@ 1.25+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
Betfair
3.60
1xBet
3.58
Superbet
3.55
Under
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Heracles over/under 0.5 HT
Over
64.6%
@ 1.38-3.0%
Under
35.4%
@ 2.87+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.40
1xBet
1.38
Superbet
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Under
10Bet
3.00
Pinnacle
2.94
Superbet
2.90
Unibet
2.88
1xBet
2.80
Heracles over/under 1.5 HT
Over
24.0%
@ 2.77-9.4%
Under
76.0%
@ 1.39+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.92
Pinnacle
2.91
Marathonbet
2.84
1xBet
2.75
Unibet
2.70
Under
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Unibet
1.38
Heracles over/under 2.5 HT
Over
9.3%
@ 6.51-4.9%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.08+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.90
Betano
6.60
Superbet
6.30
10Bet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
De Graafschap over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.3%
@ 2.16-6.7%
Under
63.7%
@ 1.63+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.27
Pinnacle
2.19
Betano
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Unibet
2.15
Under
Pinnacle
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.63
10Bet
1.62
De Graafschap over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.5%
@ 6.91-5.9%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.07+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
7.40
1xBet
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.75
Betano
6.30
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
De Graafschap over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
@ 22.17-3.2%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
28.00
10Bet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Heracles
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.27
0.93
1.00
0.80
1.53
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.14
0.25
0.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.96
1.30
1.18
1.18
0.75
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (De Graafschap) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
De Graafschap
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.20
1.27
1.33
0.80
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (29)
1.03
1.24
1.27
1.33
0.79
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Heracles) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.0%
@ 1.09-2.5%
Under 0.5
17.0%
@ 6.48+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Under
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.80
Betano
6.50
Superbet
6.10
William Hil
6.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
55.6%
@ 1.49-6.8%
Under 1.5
44.4%
@ 2.47+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.49
1xBet
1.47
Under
Betano
2.60
Marathonbet
2.56
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.47
Unibet
2.40
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.6%
@ 2.49-12.7%
Under 2.5
75.4%
@ 1.48+12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.62
Superbet
2.57
Unibet
2.55
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.44
Under
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.52
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.48
William Hil
1.44
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Heracles over/under 0.5 2H
Over
68.0%
@ 1.25-6.5%
Under
32.0%
@ 3.64+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Under
1xBet
3.70
Superbet
3.65
Betano
3.65
10Bet
3.55
Heracles over/under 1.5 2H
Over
37.4%
@ 2.15-5.8%
Under
62.6%
@ 1.63+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.20
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.15
1xBet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.11
Under
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Superbet
1.63
10Bet
1.60
Heracles over/under 2.5 2H
Over
10.7%
@ 4.61-9.4%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.16+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.00
Superbet
4.60
1xBet
4.50
Betano
4.35
Under
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
De Graafschap over/under 0.5 2H
Over
40.8%
@ 1.82-10.0%
Under
59.2%
@ 1.88+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.92
10Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.75
Under
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.78
De Graafschap over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.8%
@ 5.01-7.6%
Under
89.2%
@ 1.13+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.55
1xBet
5.20
10Bet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
Betano
4.50
Under
Betano
1.18
Marathonbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
De Graafschap over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.9%
@ 14.33-4.7%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.02+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
18.00
10Bet
15.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.2%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.7%
Under 7.5
97.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+3.8%
Away under 3.5 goals
93.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+0.3%
Under 6.5
93.5%
1.07
Betano
1.08
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.05
+5.2%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.5%
1.07
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
+5.9%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
90.7%
1.08
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
-
+4.9%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
89.3%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
-
+9.4%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.2%
1.13
Betano
1.18
Marathonbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
+7.6%
Under 5.5 cards
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.4%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-0.0%
Home +2 handicap
87.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
-3.4%
Home over 0.5 goals
86.8%
1.05
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
-3.0%
Under 5.5
85.8%
1.18
Betano
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
+6.7%
Over 19.5 fouls
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
85.3%
1.28
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
+12.8%
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.0%
1.09
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
-2.5%
Away under 2.5 goals
81.6%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-2.3%
Over 0.5 HT goals
79.6%
1.16
Betano
1.21
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
-0.5%
Over 8.5 corners
77.7%
1.24
Unibet
1.30
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
-
-
+4.6%
Under 2.5 HT goals
77.7%
1.25
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
+3.8%
Away over 0.5 goals
77.0%
1.31
Superbet
1.38
1xBet
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Unibet
1.30
+6.4%
Under 4.5 cards
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.7%
1.14
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
-4.8%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
76.0%
1.39
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Unibet
1.38
+9.4%
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.4%
1.48
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.52
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.48
William Hil
1.44
+12.7%
Over 21.5 fouls
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
72.9%
1.13
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
Betfair
1.14
10Bet
1.14
-9.6%
Home +1 handicap
72.9%
1.12
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.10
-
-7.3%
Under 4.5
72.7%
1.43
Pinnacle
1.48
Betfair
1.47
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
+7.8%
Away +2 handicap
70.6%
1.70
Superbet
1.75
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Unibet
1.68
Betfair
1.67
+17.8%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Heracles
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tristan van Gilst100%
Jean-Paul N'Djoli75%
Mario Borac33%
Damon Mirani25%
David Vicente25%
Djevencio van der Kust25%
Sem Scheperman25%
Chafik Abbas0%
Mike te Wierik0%
Thomas Bruns0%
David Tomić0%
Fabian De Keijzer0%
Maurice Wrusch0%
Manny Rodríguez0%
Max Hauswirth0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jean-Paul N'Djoli50%
Chafik Abbas25%
Mike te Wierik25%
Damon Mirani0%
Thomas Bruns0%
David Vicente0%
David Tomić0%
Fabian De Keijzer0%
Djevencio van der Kust0%
Sem Scheperman0%
Tristan van Gilst0%
Maurice Wrusch0%
Manny Rodríguez0%
Max Hauswirth0%
Mario Borac0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Chafik Abbas50%
Djevencio van der Kust50%
Thomas Bruns25%
David Vicente25%
Tristan van Gilst25%
Jean-Paul N'Djoli25%
Max Hauswirth25%
Damon Mirani0%
Mike te Wierik0%
David Tomić0%
Fabian De Keijzer0%
Sem Scheperman0%
Maurice Wrusch0%
Manny Rodríguez0%
Mario Borac0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tristan van Gilst100%
Jean-Paul N'Djoli75%
Mario Borac33%
Chafik Abbas25%
Max Hauswirth25%
Damon Mirani0%
Mike te Wierik0%
Thomas Bruns0%
David Vicente0%
David Tomić0%
Fabian De Keijzer0%
Djevencio van der Kust0%
Sem Scheperman0%
Maurice Wrusch0%
Manny Rodríguez0%
De Graafschap
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Julian Kania50%
Donny Warmerdam25%
Bjorn van Zijl25%
Jason Meerstadt0%
Ties Wieggers0%
Nathan Kaninda0%
Kaya Symons0%
Joran Hardeman0%
Rowan Besselink0%
Nart Ahmeti0%
Toivo Mero0%
Denzel Eijken0%
Gijs Bolk0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Donny Warmerdam50%
Kaya Symons33%
Rowan Besselink33%
Nart Ahmeti25%
Julian Kania25%
Gijs Bolk25%
Jason Meerstadt0%
Ties Wieggers0%
Nathan Kaninda0%
Joran Hardeman0%
Toivo Mero0%
Denzel Eijken0%
Bjorn van Zijl0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Toivo Mero67%
Nart Ahmeti25%
Jason Meerstadt0%
Donny Warmerdam0%
Ties Wieggers0%
Nathan Kaninda0%
Kaya Symons0%
Joran Hardeman0%
Rowan Besselink0%
Julian Kania0%
Denzel Eijken0%
Gijs Bolk0%
Bjorn van Zijl0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Julian Kania75%
Joran Hardeman25%
Jason Meerstadt0%
Donny Warmerdam0%
Ties Wieggers0%
Nathan Kaninda0%
Kaya Symons0%
Rowan Besselink0%
Nart Ahmeti0%
Toivo Mero0%
Denzel Eijken0%
Gijs Bolk0%
Bjorn van Zijl0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
Heracles's squad is €2m more valuable than De Graafschap's (€8m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Heracles's attack is €2m more valuable than De Graafschap's (€4m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
Heracles and De Graafschap have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Heracles and De Graafschap have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
MVV
Almere City FC
VVV Venlo
Emmen
Jong PSV U21
Vitesse
Roda
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
Jong AZ
Waalwijk
Den Bosch
Jong Ajax
Dordrecht
FC OSS
FC Eindhoven
Helmond Sport
Jong Utrecht