Heracles’ recent four-game winning streak and a 3-1 victory over FC Eindhoven set an attacking tone for the match, while FC OSS, having just beaten Jong Utrecht, will look to keep the scoreline close. The model favours a home win, with a 58% chance, a 23% draw probability and a 19% chance of an away victory. The average goal output is 3.2, pointing to a high-scoring encounter, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 10.6% probability. Heracles are expected to score 1.0 goal and concede 1.62 against a stronger opponent, whereas FC OSS, playing away, will aim to score 1.0 and concede 1.62. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (98.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.1%), Under 6.5 (96.2%), Home +2 handicap (93.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.8%), Under 5.5 (90.8%), Over 19.5 fouls (89.8%) and Home over 0.5 goals (87.4%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Heracles win
58.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC OSS win
19.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Heracles
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
2.17
1.67
1.73
1.67
2.60
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
2.86
0.25
2.00
1.67
4.00
vs Similar (23)
1.91
1.96
2.18
1.64
1.67
2.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (FC OSS) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC OSS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.63
1.56
1.94
1.00
1.29
vs Stronger (14)
1.00
2.07
1.00
2.67
1.00
1.62
vs Similar (16)
1.56
1.25
1.90
1.50
1.00
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Heracles) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.4%
Under 1.5
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.2%
Under 2.5
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.9%
Under 3.5
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
59.4%
No
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
8.9%
1-0
7.7%
3-1
6.8%
3-0
6.1%
2-2
5.5%
1-2
5.4%
Heracles goals ↓
FC OSS goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.2%
3.7%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
1
7.7%
11%
5.4%
2.0%
0.5%
2
8.9%
9.9%
5.5%
2.0%
0.6%
3
6.1%
6.8%
3.8%
1.4%
0.4%
4
3.1%
3.5%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Heracles goals (down), columns = FC OSS goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Heracles is 0.37 points better than FC OSS in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 1.16).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Heracles is 0.32 goals better than FC OSS in terms of goals scored per game (1.74 vs 1.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Heracles is 0.24 goals better than FC OSS in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.68).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Heracles or Draw
82.8%
Avg Implied -
58%
23%
19%
covers Heracles + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Heracles or FC OSS
77.2%
Avg Implied -
58%
23%
19%
covers Heracles + FC OSS
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC OSS
40.0%
Avg Implied -
58%
23%
19%
covers Draw + FC OSS
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Heracles over/under 0.5
Over
87.0%
Under
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heracles over/under 1.5
Over
60.6%
Under
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heracles over/under 2.5
Over
33.5%
Under
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heracles over/under 3.5
Over
15.1%
Under
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC OSS over/under 0.5
Over
64.0%
Under
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC OSS over/under 1.5
Over
27.2%
Under
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC OSS over/under 2.5
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC OSS over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Heracles, so a minus line means Heracles give that many goals of a start and FC OSS receive them. At -1, Heracles must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Heracles win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Heracles)
Heracles -2
18.8%
Draw -2
18.6%
FC OSS +2
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Heracles)
Heracles -1
37.4%
Draw -1
22.6%
FC OSS +1
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Heracles)
Heracles +1
82.8%
Draw +1
10.8%
FC OSS -1
6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Heracles)
Heracles +2
93.6%
Draw +2
4.6%
FC OSS -2
1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Heracles
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.90
0.73
0.73
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.71
0.00
1.50
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.96
0.65
1.00
0.45
0.92
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (FC OSS) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC OSS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.53
0.56
0.69
0.21
0.36
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.86
0.33
1.17
0.38
0.62
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.25
0.70
0.40
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Heracles) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Heracles over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heracles over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heracles over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC OSS over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC OSS over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC OSS over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Heracles
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.27
0.93
1.00
0.80
1.53
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.14
0.25
0.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.96
1.30
1.18
1.18
0.75
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC OSS) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC OSS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.10
1.00
1.25
0.79
0.93
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.21
0.67
1.50
0.62
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.12
1.00
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Heracles) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Heracles over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heracles over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heracles over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC OSS over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC OSS over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC OSS over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Heracles
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tristan van Gilst100%
Jean-Paul N'Djoli75%
Mario Borac33%
Damon Mirani25%
David Vicente25%
Djevencio van der Kust25%
Sem Scheperman25%
Chafik Abbas0%
Mike te Wierik0%
Thomas Bruns0%
David Tomić0%
Fabian De Keijzer0%
Maurice Wrusch0%
Manny RodrĂguez0%
Max Hauswirth0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jean-Paul N'Djoli50%
Chafik Abbas25%
Mike te Wierik25%
Damon Mirani0%
Thomas Bruns0%
David Vicente0%
David Tomić0%
Fabian De Keijzer0%
Djevencio van der Kust0%
Sem Scheperman0%
Tristan van Gilst0%
Maurice Wrusch0%
Manny RodrĂguez0%
Max Hauswirth0%
Mario Borac0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Chafik Abbas50%
Djevencio van der Kust50%
Thomas Bruns25%
David Vicente25%
Tristan van Gilst25%
Jean-Paul N'Djoli25%
Max Hauswirth25%
Damon Mirani0%
Mike te Wierik0%
David Tomić0%
Fabian De Keijzer0%
Sem Scheperman0%
Maurice Wrusch0%
Manny RodrĂguez0%
Mario Borac0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tristan van Gilst100%
Jean-Paul N'Djoli75%
Mario Borac33%
Chafik Abbas25%
Max Hauswirth25%
Damon Mirani0%
Mike te Wierik0%
Thomas Bruns0%
David Vicente0%
David Tomić0%
Fabian De Keijzer0%
Djevencio van der Kust0%
Sem Scheperman0%
Maurice Wrusch0%
Manny RodrĂguez0%
FC OSS
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Marcelencio Esajas33%
Franslyn Nsingi33%
Maurilio de Lannoy33%
Richard van der Venne0%
Mike Havekotte0%
Delano Vianello0%
Leonel Miguel0%
Ilounga Pata0%
Julian Kuijpers0%
Mauresmo Hinoke0%
Mert Erkan0%
Kyanno Silva0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Franslyn Nsingi33%
Mauresmo Hinoke33%
Richard van der Venne0%
Mike Havekotte0%
Delano Vianello0%
Leonel Miguel0%
Ilounga Pata0%
Marcelencio Esajas0%
Julian Kuijpers0%
Maurilio de Lannoy0%
Mert Erkan0%
Kyanno Silva0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marcelencio Esajas33%
Mert Erkan33%
Richard van der Venne0%
Mike Havekotte0%
Delano Vianello0%
Leonel Miguel0%
Ilounga Pata0%
Julian Kuijpers0%
Franslyn Nsingi0%
Maurilio de Lannoy0%
Mauresmo Hinoke0%
Kyanno Silva0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Franslyn Nsingi33%
Richard van der Venne0%
Mike Havekotte0%
Delano Vianello0%
Leonel Miguel0%
Ilounga Pata0%
Marcelencio Esajas0%
Julian Kuijpers0%
Maurilio de Lannoy0%
Mauresmo Hinoke0%
Mert Erkan0%
Kyanno Silva0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
Heracles's squad is €4m more valuable than FC OSS's (€8m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Heracles's attack is €3m more valuable than FC OSS's (€4m vs €1m).
đź§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
Heracles and FC OSS have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Heracles's defence is €1m more valuable than FC OSS's (€3m vs €2m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →