Heracles’ recent four-game winning streak fuels optimism as they host Jong PSV U21, who are still finding rhythm after a draw. The model favours a home win, with a 42% chance, while draws and away victories sit at 25% and 33% respectively. The expected goal tally is 3.4, centring on a 3-goal total that carries a 22% probability. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.7% chance.
Heracles averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded at home against similarly matched opponents, whereas Jong PSV U21 nets 1.25 and concedes 1.25 on the road. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (96.2%), Under 6.5 (91.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (90.6%), Under 5.5 cards (89.6%), Home over 0.5 goals (87.2%), Over 1.5 (86.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (84.7%), and Over 19.5 fouls (84.5%). Each pick is presented with its exact probability, and no other outcome is given a win probability.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Heracles win
43.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jong PSV U21 win
32.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Heracles
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
2.17
1.67
1.73
1.67
2.60
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
2.86
0.25
2.00
1.67
4.00
vs Similar (23)
1.91
1.96
2.18
1.64
1.67
2.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong PSV U21) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong PSV U21
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.70
1.75
1.31
1.50
2.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.55
1.45
1.71
1.57
1.25
1.25
vs Weaker (19)
1.68
1.84
1.78
1.11
1.60
2.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Heracles) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.2%
Under 1.5
13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.9%
Under 2.5
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
44.0%
Under 3.5
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
67.3%
No
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.5%
2-2
6.9%
2-0
5.7%
3-1
5.4%
1-0
5.2%
0-0
4.3%
Heracles goals ↓
Jong PSV U21 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
4.3%
4.1%
2.1%
0.8%
1
5.2%
11%
7.5%
3.9%
1.5%
2
5.7%
8.8%
6.9%
3.6%
1.4%
3
3.5%
5.4%
4.2%
2.2%
0.8%
4
1.6%
2.5%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Heracles goals (down), columns = Jong PSV U21 goals (across).
Advertisement
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Heracles is 0.06 points better than Jong PSV U21 in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 1.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Heracles is 0.00 goals better than Jong PSV U21 in terms of goals scored per game (1.74 vs 1.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Heracles is 0.24 goals better than Jong PSV U21 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.68).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Heracles or Draw
70.4%
Avg Implied -
44%
24%
32%
covers Heracles + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Heracles or Jong PSV U21
77.4%
Avg Implied -
44%
24%
32%
covers Heracles + Jong PSV U21
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Jong PSV U21
52.2%
Avg Implied -
44%
24%
32%
covers Draw + Jong PSV U21
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Heracles over/under 0.5
Over
87.8%
Under
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heracles over/under 1.5
Over
62.1%
Under
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heracles over/under 2.5
Over
35.1%
Under
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heracles over/under 3.5
Over
16.2%
Under
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong PSV U21 over/under 0.5
Over
80.6%
Under
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong PSV U21 over/under 1.5
Over
48.9%
Under
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong PSV U21 over/under 2.5
Over
22.8%
Under
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong PSV U21 over/under 3.5
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Heracles, so a minus line means Heracles give that many goals of a start and Jong PSV U21 receive them. At -1, Heracles must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Heracles win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Heracles)
Heracles -2
13.9%
Draw -2
14.5%
Jong PSV U21 +2
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Heracles)
Heracles -1
28.4%
Draw -1
19.4%
Jong PSV U21 +1
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Heracles)
Heracles +1
70.4%
Draw +1
15.0%
Jong PSV U21 -1
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Heracles)
Heracles +2
85.3%
Draw +2
8.9%
Jong PSV U21 -2
5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Heracles
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.90
0.73
0.73
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.71
0.00
1.50
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.96
0.65
1.00
0.45
0.92
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong PSV U21) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong PSV U21
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.73
0.88
0.31
1.07
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.55
0.86
0.43
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (19)
1.05
0.84
0.89
0.22
1.20
1.40
Clean sheet %
47% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Heracles) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Heracles over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heracles over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heracles over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong PSV U21 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong PSV U21 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong PSV U21 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Heracles
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.27
0.93
1.00
0.80
1.53
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.14
0.25
0.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.96
1.30
1.18
1.18
0.75
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong PSV U21) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong PSV U21
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.97
0.88
1.00
0.43
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.91
0.86
1.14
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (19)
0.63
1.00
0.89
0.89
0.40
1.10
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Heracles) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Heracles over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heracles over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heracles over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong PSV U21 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong PSV U21 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong PSV U21 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
Heracles's squad is €2m more valuable than Jong PSV U21's (€8m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Heracles's attack is €3m more valuable than Jong PSV U21's (€4m vs €1m).
đź§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
Heracles's midfield is €2m less valuable than Jong PSV U21's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Heracles and Jong PSV U21 have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →