Celtic are tipped to win, the model’s pick and the highest win probability of 50%. The expected total goals hover at 2.5, with the most likely total being two goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.3% chance. Hibernian, playing at home against a stronger side, have scored an average of 0.0 goals and conceded 0.5 in similar fixtures, while Celtic, on the road against a weaker opponent, have averaged 1.5 goals scored and 0.75 conceded. The home win probability is 21%, the draw 28%, and the away win 50%. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 88.1%, Over 19.5 fouls at 82.1%, Under 3.5 at 76.7% (miss), Over 8.5 corners at 76.0%, Under 4.5 cards at 75.9%, and Over 1.5 at 71.5%. The match is likely to see Celtic dominate, with Hibernian struggling to find the net.
Results analysis
The win extends Hibernian’s recent form, but Celtic’s 2-game winning run proved decisive as the model’s favourite, an away win at 50%, was right. The final score was 1-3, confirming the actual result as an away victory. The model’s selection of Under 5.5 cards hit, as did Over 19.5 fouls, Over 8.5 corners, Under 4.5 cards and Over 1.5, while Under 3.5 missed. Each probability is expressed as a percentage: 88.1% for Under 5.5 cards, 82.1% for Over 19.5 fouls, 76.7% for Under 3.5, 76.0% for Over 8.5 corners, 75.9% for Under 4.5 cards and 71.5% for Over 1.5. The model’s predictions largely came in, with only one miss.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hibernian win✗ Miss
21.4%
Avg Implied 17.8% · @ 5.29
Edge
+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied 23.2% · @ 4.07
Edge
+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Celtic win✓ Hit
50.4%
Avg Implied 59.0% · @ 1.60
Edge
-8.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hibernian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.00
1.06
0.94
1.14
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.17
0.00
0.50
0.75
1.50
vs Similar (8)
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.67
1.20
0.60
vs Weaker (16)
1.38
0.94
1.36
0.82
1.40
1.20
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.70
2.47
0.40
1.27
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.50
1.75
1.00
1.00
0.33
2.00
vs Weaker (26)
2.08
0.54
2.57
0.36
1.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.5%
Under 1.5
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.4%
@ 1.82-7.8%
Under 2.5
55.6%
@ 1.99+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.3%
Under 3.5
76.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.4%
No
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
0-1
12.0%
0-2
10.1%
0-0
9.8%
1-2
9.3%
1-0
6.7%
2-1
5.6%
0-3
5.2%
Hibernian goals ↓
Celtic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
12%
10%
5.2%
2.0%
1
6.7%
13%
9.3%
4.8%
1.8%
2
3.6%
5.6%
4.3%
2.2%
0.8%
3
1.1%
1.7%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hibernian goals (down), columns = Celtic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.45
Rangers
2.34
Heart Of Midlothian
1.61
Livingston
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.26
Motherwell
1.21
Hibernian
1.18
ST Mirren
1.16
Aberdeen
1.08
Ross County
1.08
ST Johnstone
0.92
Dundee
0.76
Hibernian is 1.26 points worse than Celtic in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 2.45).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.42
Rangers
2.11
Heart Of Midlothian
1.42
Ross County
1.24
Motherwell
1.11
Aberdeen
1.08
Livingston
1.08
Hibernian
1.00
Dundee Utd
0.97
Dundee
0.89
ST Mirren
0.87
ST Johnstone
0.63
Hibernian is 1.42 goals worse than Celtic in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.58
Rangers
0.82
Hibernian
1.11
Dundee Utd
1.16
Heart Of Midlothian
1.16
Aberdeen
1.21
Livingston
1.21
ST Mirren
1.34
ST Johnstone
1.34
Motherwell
1.61
Ross County
1.61
Dundee
1.68
Hibernian is 0.53 goals worse than Celtic in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 0.58).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Hibernian
For 5.6 · Against 5.7 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 14.1 · Total 25.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celtic
For 8.4 · Against 3.1 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 9.4 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hibernian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.6
9.3
3.3
2.9
3.6
25.5
24.8
26.3
vs Stronger (9)
10.7
9.2
11.8
3.6
3.8
3.4
24.2
24.8
23.8
vs Similar (16)
10.2
12.1
8.8
3.2
2.4
3.8
26.7
27.0
26.4
vs Weaker (25)
9.5
10.2
8.6
3.2
2.9
3.6
25.3
23.7
27.3
% over line
50%
60%
40%
34%
28%
40%
82%
76%
88%
% under line
50%
40%
60%
66%
72%
60%
18%
24%
12%
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.4
10.8
2.7
2.4
3.0
22.4
21.1
23.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
10.2
10.5
10.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
27.8
30.0
26.3
vs Weaker (45)
10.7
10.4
10.9
2.5
2.2
2.8
21.8
20.3
23.3
% over line
70%
68%
72%
28%
24%
32%
56%
48%
64%
% under line
30%
32%
28%
72%
76%
68%
44%
52%
36%
This opponent (Hibernian) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rangers
10.7
Ross County
10.7
Celtic
10.6
Motherwell
10.5
Dundee
10.5
Dundee Utd
10.5
Heart Of Midlothian
10.5
ST Mirren
10.1
Hibernian
10.0
ST Johnstone
9.5
Aberdeen
9.3
Livingston
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Heart Of Midlothian
3.7
Motherwell
3.7
Dundee Utd
3.6
ST Johnstone
3.6
Dundee
3.5
Rangers
3.4
Livingston
3.4
Ross County
3.3
Hibernian
3.3
ST Mirren
3.1
Aberdeen
3.1
Celtic
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.8
Heart Of Midlothian
26.0
Hibernian
25.5
ST Johnstone
25.5
Motherwell
25.4
Livingston
25.2
Ross County
25.0
Dundee Utd
24.8
Dundee
24.6
ST Mirren
24.0
Rangers
23.2
Celtic
22.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
65.0%
Under 9.5
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.4%
Under 3.5
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
68.8%
Under 21.5
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hibernian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.50
0.50
0.44
0.43
0.57
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.62
0.33
0.67
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (16)
0.56
0.50
0.64
0.45
0.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.33
1.20
0.27
0.47
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (26)
0.88
0.27
1.21
0.21
0.50
0.33
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hibernian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.56
0.50
0.71
0.50
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.83
0.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.38
0.33
1.00
0.60
0.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.81
0.44
0.73
0.36
1.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.37
1.27
0.13
0.80
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.33
vs Weaker (26)
1.19
0.27
1.36
0.14
1.00
0.42
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hibernian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martin Boyle67%
Callum Wright67%
Felix Passlack25%
Jason Kerr25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Josh Mulligan0%
Jamie McGrath0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Felix Passlack25%
Josh Mulligan25%
Ante Šuto25%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Martin Boyle0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jamie McGrath0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jamie McGrath33%
Felix Passlack25%
Josh Mulligan25%
Nathan Lowe25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Martin Boyle0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Martin Boyle33%
Jamie McGrath33%
Josh Mulligan25%
Nathan Lowe25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Felix Passlack0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Celtic · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
B. Nygren67%
C. Durán50%
Kasper Høgh25%
Luke McCowan25%
C. McGregor20%
Yang Hyun-Jun17%
Kieran Tierney0%
J. Forrest0%
C. Carter-Vickers0%
H. Hassan0%
Auston Trusty0%
S. Tounekti0%
L. Scales0%
V. Sinisalo0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luke McCowan25%
C. Carter-Vickers17%
Colby Donovan17%
Kieran Tierney0%
J. Forrest0%
C. McGregor0%
Kasper Høgh0%
H. Hassan0%
B. Nygren0%
Auston Trusty0%
S. Tounekti0%
L. Scales0%
V. Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
C. Durán0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
B. Nygren50%
Kieran Tierney40%
C. Durán33%
Yang Hyun-Jun17%
J. Forrest0%
C. McGregor0%
Kasper Høgh0%
C. Carter-Vickers0%
H. Hassan0%
Luke McCowan0%
Auston Trusty0%
S. Tounekti0%
L. Scales0%
V. Sinisalo0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Durán67%
Kasper Høgh50%
H. Hassan33%
B. Nygren33%
Kieran Tierney0%
J. Forrest0%
C. McGregor0%
C. Carter-Vickers0%
Luke McCowan0%
Auston Trusty0%
S. Tounekti0%
L. Scales0%
V. Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Hibernian's squad is €97m less valuable than Celtic's (€20m vs €116m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Hibernian's attack is €49m less valuable than Celtic's (€7m vs €56m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Hibernian's midfield is €12m less valuable than Celtic's (€8m vs €20m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Hibernian's defence is €36m less valuable than Celtic's (€5m vs €41m).
Scotland: Premiership 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →