Hibernian enter the fixture as the clear favourite, with the model assigning a 71% chance of a home win, 18% for a draw and 10% for a Dundee victory. The 71% home-win probability reflects Hibernian’s strong home form, scoring an average of 2.86 goals while conceding just 1.14 against weaker opposition, contrasted with Dundee’s away struggles, scoring none and conceding 2.25 against stronger teams. The expected total of 3.3 goals points to a high-scoring encounter, and the most likely scoreline is 2-0, carrying an 11.1% probability. The model’s suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 90.8%, Over 1.5 goals at 84.8%, Over 2.5 cards at 77.6%, Under 5.5 cards at 77.0%, and an Over 21.5 fouls pick at 81.7% that is expected to miss. Hibernian’s recent win over Dundee and Dundee’s recent draw against St Johnstone add narrative weight, but the venue advantage and form statistics keep the home side ahead.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Hibernian, failed to deliver, as the match finished 2-2, a draw that surprised the model’s 71.3% prediction of a home win. The game was a true upset, with Hibernian’s recent form noted as “coming off a win” and Dundee “coming off a draw.” The model’s call was wrong, and the final result was a draw. The suggested picks performed as follows: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 90.8%; Over 1.5 hit at 84.8%; Over 21.5 fouls missed at 81.7%; Over 2.5 cards hit at 77.6%; Under 5.5 cards hit at 77.0%; and Home win missed at 71.3%. The match delivered a 2-2 scoreline, confirming the unexpected outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hibernian win✗ Miss
71.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
18.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dundee win✗ Miss
10.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hibernian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.07
2.64
1.14
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
2.20
2.40
3.50
3.00
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.50
2.00
0.40
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (15)
2.07
1.00
2.86
1.14
1.38
0.88
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.83
0.53
2.07
0.87
1.60
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
2.30
0.17
2.33
0.00
2.25
vs Similar (20)
1.00
1.60
0.78
1.89
1.18
1.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.8%
Under 1.5
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.8%
Under 2.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.7%
Under 3.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.2%
No
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.1%
2-1
9.5%
3-0
9.0%
1-1
8.6%
1-0
8.3%
3-1
7.7%
4-0
5.5%
4-1
4.7%
Hibernian goals ↓
Dundee goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
2.4%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
1
8.3%
8.6%
3.3%
0.9%
0.2%
2
11%
9.5%
4.0%
1.2%
0.2%
3
9.0%
7.7%
3.3%
0.9%
0.2%
4
5.5%
4.7%
2.0%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hibernian goals (down), columns = Dundee goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.29
Rangers
2.05
Aberdeen
1.76
Kilmarnock
1.76
Hibernian
1.42
ST Johnstone
1.37
Motherwell
1.34
Heart Of Midlothian
1.34
Livingston
1.16
Hamilton
0.87
ST Mirren
0.84
Dundee
0.55
Hibernian is 0.87 points better than Dundee in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 0.55).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.16
Celtic
2.03
Aberdeen
1.50
Hibernian
1.34
Kilmarnock
1.32
Motherwell
1.21
Livingston
1.11
Heart Of Midlothian
1.11
ST Johnstone
1.00
ST Mirren
0.89
Dundee
0.82
Hamilton
0.74
Hibernian is 0.53 goals better than Dundee in terms of goals scored per game (1.34 vs 0.82).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.53
Rangers
0.71
Kilmarnock
0.82
Hibernian
1.03
Aberdeen
1.16
Livingston
1.16
ST Johnstone
1.26
Heart Of Midlothian
1.32
Motherwell
1.47
ST Mirren
1.74
Hamilton
1.97
Dundee
2.05
Hibernian is 1.03 goals better than Dundee in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 2.05).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Hibernian
For 5.5 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.2 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 10.3 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundee
For 4.2 · Against 6.3 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 13.6 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hibernian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
9.7
11.6
4.1
4.4
3.9
24.8
26.2
23.6
vs Stronger (9)
9.0
8.5
9.4
5.3
4.8
5.8
25.6
28.0
23.6
vs Similar (15)
9.2
8.6
9.9
4.2
4.9
3.4
27.1
26.8
27.6
vs Weaker (26)
12.1
10.8
13.2
3.7
4.0
3.4
23.2
25.2
21.6
% over line
58%
42%
73%
58%
67%
50%
72%
79%
65%
% under line
42%
58%
27%
42%
33%
50%
28%
21%
35%
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.3
11.5
11.0
4.1
4.2
4.1
25.1
24.4
25.9
vs Stronger (20)
11.9
12.3
11.6
4.0
4.3
3.7
23.8
23.2
24.6
vs Similar (30)
10.8
10.9
10.7
4.2
4.1
4.3
26.0
25.3
26.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
66%
64%
68%
64%
64%
64%
72%
72%
72%
% under line
34%
36%
32%
36%
36%
36%
28%
28%
28%
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dundee
11.3
Rangers
11.0
ST Mirren
10.8
Hibernian
10.7
Celtic
10.4
Kilmarnock
10.2
ST Johnstone
10.2
Motherwell
9.9
Heart Of Midlothian
9.7
Hamilton
9.7
Livingston
9.6
Aberdeen
9.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Rangers
4.7
Heart Of Midlothian
4.2
Aberdeen
4.1
Hibernian
4.1
Dundee
4.1
Hamilton
4.1
Kilmarnock
4.0
ST Mirren
4.0
Livingston
3.9
ST Johnstone
3.7
Celtic
3.7
Motherwell
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
26.5
Motherwell
26.2
Rangers
25.9
Aberdeen
25.8
Hamilton
25.3
Dundee
25.1
Kilmarnock
25.1
Hibernian
24.8
Livingston
24.5
ST Mirren
23.9
ST Johnstone
22.7
Celtic
22.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
54.4%
Under 9.5
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
58.5%
Under 3.5
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
81.7%
Under 21.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hibernian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
1.07
0.64
0.31
0.44
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.20
2.00
1.50
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.30
0.60
0.20
0.00
0.40
vs Weaker (15)
0.80
0.47
1.14
0.71
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.80
0.33
0.80
0.33
0.80
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
1.20
0.17
1.17
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.60
0.44
0.56
0.45
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hibernian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.53
1.57
0.50
0.69
0.56
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
1.20
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.20
1.40
0.20
0.20
0.20
vs Weaker (15)
1.27
0.53
1.71
0.43
0.88
0.62
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.03
0.20
1.27
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (10)
0.00
1.10
0.00
1.17
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.55
1.00
0.33
1.33
0.73
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hibernian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martin Boyle67%
Callum Wright67%
Felix Passlack25%
Jason Kerr25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Josh Mulligan0%
Jamie McGrath0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Felix Passlack25%
Josh Mulligan25%
Ante Šuto25%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Martin Boyle0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jamie McGrath0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jamie McGrath33%
Felix Passlack25%
Josh Mulligan25%
Nathan Lowe25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Martin Boyle0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Martin Boyle33%
Jamie McGrath33%
Josh Mulligan25%
Nathan Lowe25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Felix Passlack0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Dundee · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joe Westley50%
Drey Wright25%
Owen Bevan25%
Joe Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ethan Hamilton25%
Drey Wright25%
Ryan Finnigan25%
Joe Westley25%
Owen Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Bevan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alan Forrest25%
Joe Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Drey Wright0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Westley0%
Owen Bevan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Drey Wright0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Westley0%
Owen Bevan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
Hibernian's squad is €14m more valuable than Dundee's (€20m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
Hibernian's attack is €6m more valuable than Dundee's (€7m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
Hibernian's midfield is €6m more valuable than Dundee's (€8m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
Hibernian's defence is €2m more valuable than Dundee's (€5m vs €2m).
Scotland: Premiership 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Rangers
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
ST Johnstone
Heart Of Midlothian
Motherwell
Livingston
ST Mirren