Hibernian are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with a 56% chance of victory, a 26% draw probability and only 18% for Dundee. The match is expected to see 2.6 goals on average, with the most likely total of 2 goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 12.4%. Hibs have been prolific at home against weaker opposition, scoring 1.71 goals and conceding just 0.57, while Dundee, playing away against stronger teams, manage only 0.5 goals and allow 3.0. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 88.4%, Under 5.5 cards at 81.2%, Over 21.5 fouls at 77.9%, Under 3.5 at 73.4%, and the remaining picks - Over 1.5, Over 8.5 corners, Over 2.5 cards - each with their respective probabilities. The forecast favours a home win, with the most likely scoreline of 1-1, and the overall expected goal count sits at 2.6.
Results analysis
Hibernian’s 1-0 win over Dundee extended their recent run, coming off a victory in their previous match. The model’s pre-match favourite was a Home win with a 56% probability, and this call proved correct. The predicted most likely score of 1-0 also materialised, matching the final score. The model’s suggested picks performed mixedly: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 88.4%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 81.2%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 77.9%, Under 3.5 hit at 73.4%. However, Over 1.5 missed at 74.5%, Over 8.5 corners missed at 73.9%, and Over 2.5 cards missed at 73.5%. Overall, the model’s forecast was largely accurate, though a few selections fell short.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hibernian win✓ Hit
55.6%
Avg Implied 55.5% · @ 1.70
Edge
+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied 25.4% · @ 3.72
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dundee win✗ Miss
18.4%
Avg Implied 19.1% · @ 4.95
Edge
-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hibernian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.03
1.14
1.00
1.12
1.06
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.60
0.33
1.33
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (9)
1.00
1.00
0.75
1.50
1.20
0.60
vs Weaker (16)
1.38
0.88
1.71
0.57
1.11
1.11
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.53
1.53
1.53
1.13
1.53
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
2.50
1.50
2.00
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (19)
1.42
1.26
1.44
1.56
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.67
2.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.5%
Under 1.5
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.4%
@ 1.95-0.3%
Under 2.5
51.6%
@ 1.85+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.6%
Under 3.5
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.6%
No
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
1-0 ✓
11.5%
2-0
10.8%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.5%
3-0
6.2%
3-1
5.5%
0-1
5.5%
Hibernian goals ↓
Dundee goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
5.5%
3.0%
0.9%
0.2%
1
11%
12%
5.1%
1.5%
0.3%
2
11%
9.7%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
3
6.2%
5.5%
2.5%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.6%
2.4%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hibernian goals (down), columns = Dundee goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.45
Rangers
2.34
Heart Of Midlothian
1.61
Livingston
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.26
Motherwell
1.21
Hibernian
1.18
ST Mirren
1.16
Aberdeen
1.08
Ross County
1.08
ST Johnstone
0.92
Dundee
0.76
Hibernian is 0.42 points better than Dundee in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 0.76).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.42
Rangers
2.11
Heart Of Midlothian
1.42
Ross County
1.24
Motherwell
1.11
Aberdeen
1.08
Livingston
1.08
Hibernian
1.00
Dundee Utd
0.97
Dundee
0.89
ST Mirren
0.87
ST Johnstone
0.63
Hibernian is 0.11 goals better than Dundee in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.58
Rangers
0.82
Hibernian
1.11
Dundee Utd
1.16
Heart Of Midlothian
1.16
Aberdeen
1.21
Livingston
1.21
ST Mirren
1.34
ST Johnstone
1.34
Motherwell
1.61
Ross County
1.61
Dundee
1.68
Hibernian is 0.58 goals better than Dundee in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.68).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Hibernian
For 5.3 · Against 4.9 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 12.1 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundee
For 4.3 · Against 6.7 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 13.0 · Total 26.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hibernian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.4
9.5
3.5
3.0
4.0
24.9
24.4
25.4
vs Stronger (11)
10.9
10.2
11.8
3.5
3.5
3.4
24.6
25.3
23.8
vs Similar (13)
9.8
10.8
8.9
3.2
2.7
3.7
26.0
25.3
26.6
vs Weaker (26)
9.6
10.3
8.9
3.7
3.0
4.3
24.5
23.6
25.4
% over line
50%
60%
40%
38%
28%
48%
76%
76%
76%
% under line
50%
40%
60%
62%
72%
52%
24%
24%
24%
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
11.0
10.4
3.6
3.8
3.4
25.2
25.0
25.5
vs Stronger (10)
11.2
11.8
10.6
5.0
5.8
4.2
24.8
25.2
24.4
vs Similar (34)
10.6
11.0
10.2
3.1
3.2
3.0
25.5
25.2
25.8
vs Weaker (6)
10.3
10.0
10.7
3.8
3.7
4.0
24.3
23.3
25.3
% over line
64%
72%
56%
54%
60%
48%
74%
72%
76%
% under line
36%
28%
44%
46%
40%
52%
26%
28%
24%
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Celtic
10.9
Rangers
10.8
Dundee
10.7
Heart Of Midlothian
10.5
Ross County
10.5
ST Mirren
10.2
Motherwell
10.2
Dundee Utd
10.2
Hibernian
9.9
Aberdeen
9.7
ST Johnstone
9.5
Livingston
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Motherwell
3.8
Rangers
3.7
Dundee Utd
3.7
ST Johnstone
3.7
Heart Of Midlothian
3.7
Dundee
3.6
Livingston
3.5
Hibernian
3.5
Ross County
3.5
ST Mirren
3.4
Aberdeen
3.4
Celtic
2.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.4
Motherwell
25.9
Heart Of Midlothian
25.8
ST Johnstone
25.5
Dundee
25.2
Hibernian
24.9
Livingston
24.9
Ross County
24.6
ST Mirren
24.6
Dundee Utd
24.5
Rangers
23.6
Celtic
22.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
62.5%
Under 9.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
53.1%
Under 3.5
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
77.9%
Under 21.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hibernian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.64
0.50
0.38
0.56
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.80
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.56
0.50
0.50
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (16)
0.50
0.44
0.86
0.29
0.22
0.56
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.73
0.80
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.12
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.68
0.78
0.89
0.60
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hibernian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.50
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.80
0.00
0.33
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.44
0.25
1.00
0.60
0.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.88
0.44
0.86
0.29
0.89
0.56
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
0.80
0.73
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.38
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.75
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.58
0.67
0.67
0.80
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hibernian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martin Boyle67%
Callum Wright67%
Felix Passlack25%
Jason Kerr25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Josh Mulligan0%
Jamie McGrath0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Felix Passlack25%
Josh Mulligan25%
Ante Šuto25%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Martin Boyle0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jamie McGrath0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jamie McGrath33%
Felix Passlack25%
Josh Mulligan25%
Nathan Lowe25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Martin Boyle0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Martin Boyle33%
Jamie McGrath33%
Josh Mulligan25%
Nathan Lowe25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Felix Passlack0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Dundee · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joe Westley50%
Drey Wright25%
Owen Bevan25%
Joe Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ethan Hamilton25%
Drey Wright25%
Ryan Finnigan25%
Joe Westley25%
Owen Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Bevan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alan Forrest25%
Joe Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Drey Wright0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Westley0%
Owen Bevan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Drey Wright0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Westley0%
Owen Bevan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Hibernian's squad is €14m more valuable than Dundee's (€20m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Hibernian's attack is €6m more valuable than Dundee's (€7m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Hibernian's midfield is €6m more valuable than Dundee's (€8m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Hibernian's defence is €2m more valuable than Dundee's (€5m vs €2m).
Scotland: Premiership 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →