The model favours a Hibernian win, with a 60% chance of victory, a 24% chance of a draw and a 16% chance of a Hearts win. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a moderate scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.5% probability. Hibernian, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.2 conceded, while Hearts, away from home, also averages 1.0 scored but concedes 1.67. The suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls (91.4%), Under 5.5 cards (77.8%), Over 1.5 (76.6%), Under 3.5 (70.9%) and Over 23.5 fouls (70.4%). The other selections - Over 21.5 fouls, Under 11.5 corners, Over 2.5 cards - carry lower probabilities of 82.8%, 78.2% and 76.8% respectively. Despite Hibernian’s stronger form after a recent defeat, Hearts’ unbeaten run in their last five suggests they could pull off the upset.
Results analysis
The upset was stark: the pre-match favourite, Hibernian, fell short as Hearts secured a 2-1 away win, extending their unbeaten run. The model had picked a home win at 60% probability, but that call was wrong. The model’s selections were mixed: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 91.4%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 77.8%, Over 1.5 hit at 76.6%, and Under 3.5 hit at 70.9%. The remaining picks - Over 21.5 fouls, Under 11.5 corners, Over 2.5 cards, and Over 23.5 fouls - missed, with probabilities of 82.8%, 78.2%, 76.8%, and 70.4% respectively. The final score of 1-2 confirmed Hearts’ victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hibernian win✗ Miss
60.4%
Avg Implied 38.5% · @ 2.43
Edge
+21.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.1%
Avg Implied 28.0% · @ 3.34
Edge
-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian win✓ Hit
15.5%
Avg Implied 33.4% · @ 2.80
Edge
-17.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hibernian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.27
1.07
0.80
1.07
1.73
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.38
0.75
0.25
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (8)
0.88
1.38
1.00
1.20
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (14)
1.43
1.14
1.33
0.83
1.50
1.38
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.60
1.13
1.27
0.87
1.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
2.50
1.00
2.33
0.67
2.67
vs Similar (10)
1.20
1.60
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.67
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
1.21
1.00
0.75
0.83
1.83
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.6%
Under 1.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.3%
@ 1.90+1.4%
Under 2.5
48.7%
@ 1.89-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.1%
Under 3.5
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.6%
No
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
2-0
11.5%
1-0
11.2%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.6%
3-0
7.2%
3-1
6.1%
0-1
4.5%
Hibernian goals ↓
Heart Of Midlothian goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
4.5%
2.4%
0.7%
0.1%
1
11%
12%
4.5%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
9.8%
4.2%
1.2%
0.3%
3
7.2%
6.1%
2.6%
0.7%
0.2%
4
3.4%
2.9%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hibernian goals (down), columns = Heart Of Midlothian goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.67
Rangers
2.31
Motherwell
1.53
Aberdeen
1.50
Livingston
1.30
ST Johnstone
1.24
Hibernian
1.23
Kilmarnock
1.10
ST Mirren
0.97
Ross County
0.97
Hamilton
0.90
Heart Of Midlothian
0.77
Hibernian is 0.47 points better than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of average points per game (1.23 vs 0.77).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.97
Rangers
2.21
Hibernian
1.40
Livingston
1.37
Motherwell
1.37
Aberdeen
1.33
Kilmarnock
1.03
Heart Of Midlothian
1.03
Hamilton
1.00
Ross County
0.97
ST Johnstone
0.97
ST Mirren
0.80
Hibernian is 0.37 goals better than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.63
Rangers
0.66
Aberdeen
1.20
Motherwell
1.27
Livingston
1.30
Kilmarnock
1.37
ST Mirren
1.37
ST Johnstone
1.59
Hibernian
1.63
Hamilton
1.67
Heart Of Midlothian
1.73
Ross County
2.00
Hibernian is 0.10 goals better than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.73).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Hibernian
For 3.3 · Against 6.4 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 9.3 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heart Of Midlothian
For 4.0 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.4 · Against 14.3 · Total 30.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hibernian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.3
9.9
3.7
4.4
3.1
23.6
23.8
23.5
vs Stronger (11)
10.7
11.3
10.0
4.3
4.7
3.8
21.5
23.0
19.8
vs Similar (14)
9.2
8.6
9.9
4.7
5.3
4.1
26.3
24.6
28.0
vs Weaker (25)
9.3
8.7
9.9
3.0
3.7
2.3
23.1
23.7
22.5
% over line
54%
52%
56%
50%
64%
36%
60%
68%
52%
% under line
46%
48%
44%
50%
36%
64%
40%
32%
48%
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.8
9.0
4.3
4.4
4.2
28.3
27.2
29.4
vs Stronger (11)
10.3
8.8
11.5
3.7
4.4
3.2
26.3
25.8
26.7
vs Similar (16)
8.3
8.6
8.0
5.2
5.2
5.2
32.4
31.2
33.5
vs Weaker (23)
9.7
11.0
8.3
3.9
3.8
3.9
26.4
25.2
27.8
% over line
48%
56%
40%
54%
52%
56%
88%
88%
88%
% under line
52%
44%
60%
46%
48%
44%
12%
12%
12%
This opponent (Hibernian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rangers
11.3
Ross County
10.5
Celtic
10.4
Livingston
9.6
ST Mirren
9.6
Hibernian
9.6
ST Johnstone
9.6
Motherwell
9.4
Heart Of Midlothian
9.4
Hamilton
9.4
Kilmarnock
9.1
Aberdeen
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aberdeen
4.4
Rangers
4.3
Heart Of Midlothian
4.3
Kilmarnock
4.0
Ross County
3.9
ST Mirren
3.8
Hibernian
3.7
Hamilton
3.6
Motherwell
3.6
Celtic
3.6
ST Johnstone
3.4
Livingston
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
28.3
Aberdeen
27.4
Rangers
25.5
Hamilton
25.4
Motherwell
24.8
Kilmarnock
24.8
ST Mirren
24.7
Hibernian
23.6
Ross County
23.6
ST Johnstone
22.9
Celtic
22.6
Livingston
22.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
44.1%
Under 9.5
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
57.5%
Under 3.5
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
82.8%
Under 21.5
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hibernian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.67
0.53
0.40
0.27
0.93
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.75
0.25
0.25
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.88
0.80
0.80
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
0.36
0.50
0.50
0.17
0.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.63
0.47
0.60
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.50
0.33
1.67
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.60
0.50
0.75
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
0.64
0.29
0.50
0.12
0.83
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hibernian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.53
0.40
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.62
0.50
0.00
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (8)
0.25
0.50
0.20
0.40
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.64
0.83
0.67
1.25
0.62
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.97
0.67
0.67
0.33
1.27
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.67
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (10)
0.80
1.00
1.00
0.75
0.67
1.17
vs Weaker (14)
0.29
0.93
0.50
0.62
0.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hibernian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Felix Passlack33%
Jason Kerr33%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Josh Mulligan0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Josh Mulligan33%
Ante Šuto33%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa33%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Felix Passlack0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Josh Mulligan33%
Nathan Lowe33%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Felix Passlack0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Josh Mulligan33%
Nathan Lowe33%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Felix Passlack0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Heart Of Midlothian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
James Wilson50%
Calvin Miller33%
Josh McPake25%
Tom Renaud25%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Pierre Landry Kaboré17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Rogers Mato0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Amadou Ba-Sy33%
Pierre Landry Kaboré33%
Tomas Magnusson20%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Jordi Altena17%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cláudio Braga33%
Rogers Mato33%
Josh McPake25%
Sabah Kerjota25%
Blair Spittal17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cláudio Braga50%
Laurent Mendy33%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Hibernian's squad is €2m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€20m vs €22m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Hibernian's attack is €5m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€7m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Hibernian's midfield is €4m more valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€8m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Hibernian and Heart Of Midlothian have a similar defence value (both €5m).
Scotland: Premiership 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Rangers
Motherwell
Aberdeen
Livingston
ST Johnstone
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
Ross County