Hibernian’s recent slump, highlighted by a defeat to Gent, sets the stage for a clear favourite in this Edinburgh derby. The model rates a home win at 67%, a draw 21% and an away win 12%, making the home victory the most likely outcome. Hibs have been prolific at home, averaging 2.0 goals scored and conceding just 1.25 against teams of similar strength, while Hearts’ away form is less convincing, with 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. The expected total of 3.0 goals is tempered by a 23% chance of only 2 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 2-0, with an 11.7% probability. The model’s selections reflect a high-pace, high-foul match: Over 19.5 fouls86%, Over 1.5 goals 80.9%, Under 5.5 cards80.2%, Over 2.5 cards74.6%, Over 8.5 corners74.5% and Over 21.5 fouls74.3%. These picks underline the expectation of a lively, high-contact contest.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Hibernian, failed to deliver, as the match ended 1-3 in favour of Heart Of Midlothian. Hibernian were tipped for a home win with a 67% probability, but the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selection of Over 19.5 fouls hit, with an 86% chance; Over 1.5 goals also hit at 80.9%; Under 5.5 cards hit at 80.2%; Over 2.5 cards hit at 74.6%; Over 8.5 corners hit at 74.5%; and Over 21.5 fouls hit at 74.3%. Hibernian’s recent form had them coming off a defeat, while Hearts remained unbeaten in their last five. The upset underscored the volatility of the Premiership.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hibernian win✗ Miss
66.7%
Avg Implied 43.1% · @ 2.18
Edge
+23.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.9%
Avg Implied 27.7% · @ 3.40
Edge
-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian win✓ Hit
12.4%
Avg Implied 29.2% · @ 3.22
Edge
-16.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hibernian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.53
1.73
1.40
1.00
1.67
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
2.80
0.50
2.00
0.67
3.33
vs Similar (8)
1.38
1.12
2.00
1.25
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
1.59
1.35
1.89
1.33
1.25
1.38
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.80
1.20
1.53
0.73
2.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
2.71
1.00
1.33
0.50
3.75
vs Similar (7)
1.14
1.86
1.00
2.00
1.25
1.75
vs Weaker (16)
1.00
1.38
1.33
1.44
0.57
1.29
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.9%
Under 1.5
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.5%
@ 1.90+7.8%
Under 2.5
42.5%
@ 1.88-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.1%
Under 3.5
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.0%
No
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.7%
1-1
10.0%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.8%
3-0
8.4%
3-1
7.0%
0-0
5.9%
4-0
4.5%
Hibernian goals ↓
Heart Of Midlothian goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
3.3%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
1
9.9%
10.0%
3.8%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
9.8%
4.1%
1.1%
0.2%
3
8.4%
7.0%
2.9%
0.8%
0.2%
4
4.5%
3.8%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hibernian goals (down), columns = Heart Of Midlothian goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.67
Rangers
2.31
Motherwell
1.53
Aberdeen
1.50
Livingston
1.30
ST Johnstone
1.24
Hibernian
1.23
Kilmarnock
1.10
ST Mirren
0.97
Ross County
0.97
Hamilton
0.90
Heart Of Midlothian
0.77
Hibernian is 0.47 points better than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of average points per game (1.23 vs 0.77).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.97
Rangers
2.21
Hibernian
1.40
Livingston
1.37
Motherwell
1.37
Aberdeen
1.33
Kilmarnock
1.03
Heart Of Midlothian
1.03
Hamilton
1.00
Ross County
0.97
ST Johnstone
0.97
ST Mirren
0.80
Hibernian is 0.37 goals better than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.63
Rangers
0.66
Aberdeen
1.20
Motherwell
1.27
Livingston
1.30
Kilmarnock
1.37
ST Mirren
1.37
ST Johnstone
1.59
Hibernian
1.63
Hamilton
1.67
Heart Of Midlothian
1.73
Ross County
2.00
Hibernian is 0.10 goals better than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.73).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Hibernian
For 5.6 · Against 7.3 · Total 12.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 11.3 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heart Of Midlothian
For 7.4 · Against 5.1 · Total 12.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.8 · Against 11.8 · Total 27.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hibernian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.3
10.7
3.7
4.0
3.5
22.7
22.8
22.5
vs Stronger (12)
10.4
9.8
11.0
4.5
5.3
3.7
20.7
21.2
20.2
vs Similar (14)
9.9
9.5
10.5
4.3
4.2
4.3
24.6
24.5
24.7
vs Weaker (24)
10.9
11.1
10.7
3.0
3.1
2.9
22.6
22.6
22.6
% over line
62%
62%
62%
50%
50%
50%
56%
62%
50%
% under line
38%
38%
38%
50%
50%
50%
44%
38%
50%
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.8
9.6
4.4
4.3
4.4
27.5
26.1
28.8
vs Stronger (10)
10.0
9.4
10.6
4.3
5.0
3.6
25.8
25.6
26.0
vs Similar (14)
9.2
9.5
9.0
5.1
4.8
5.2
31.1
30.2
31.8
vs Weaker (26)
10.8
11.9
9.5
4.0
3.9
4.2
26.2
24.6
28.0
% over line
58%
64%
52%
62%
60%
64%
84%
84%
84%
% under line
42%
36%
48%
38%
40%
36%
16%
16%
16%
This opponent (Hibernian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Hamilton
11.1
Rangers
10.7
Ross County
10.5
Hibernian
10.5
ST Mirren
10.4
Celtic
10.3
Heart Of Midlothian
10.2
ST Johnstone
10.0
Livingston
9.8
Motherwell
9.8
Kilmarnock
9.7
Aberdeen
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Heart Of Midlothian
4.4
Ross County
4.0
Rangers
3.8
Motherwell
3.8
Kilmarnock
3.8
Aberdeen
3.7
Hibernian
3.7
ST Johnstone
3.4
Celtic
3.3
ST Mirren
3.2
Hamilton
3.1
Livingston
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
27.5
Aberdeen
26.2
Hamilton
24.9
Motherwell
24.0
Ross County
23.8
Kilmarnock
23.7
ST Mirren
23.3
Rangers
23.2
ST Johnstone
23.1
Hibernian
22.7
Livingston
22.5
Celtic
21.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
63.1%
Under 9.5
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.5%
Under 3.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
74.3%
Under 21.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hibernian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.57
0.67
0.67
0.73
0.47
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.40
0.50
1.50
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.38
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.25
vs Weaker (17)
0.76
0.41
0.67
0.56
0.88
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.83
0.33
0.93
0.20
0.73
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.14
0.33
1.00
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (7)
0.00
0.71
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
0.38
0.75
0.44
0.89
0.29
0.57
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hibernian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.97
1.07
0.73
0.27
1.20
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.40
0.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.75
1.25
0.75
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (17)
0.82
0.94
1.22
0.78
0.38
1.12
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.97
0.87
0.60
0.53
1.33
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.57
0.67
0.33
0.25
2.50
vs Similar (7)
1.14
1.14
1.00
1.00
1.25
1.25
vs Weaker (16)
0.62
0.62
0.89
0.56
0.29
0.71
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hibernian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Felix Passlack33%
Jason Kerr33%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Josh Mulligan0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Josh Mulligan33%
Ante Šuto33%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa33%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Felix Passlack0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Josh Mulligan33%
Nathan Lowe33%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Felix Passlack0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Josh Mulligan33%
Nathan Lowe33%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Felix Passlack0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Heart Of Midlothian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
James Wilson50%
Calvin Miller33%
Josh McPake25%
Tom Renaud25%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Pierre Landry Kaboré17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Rogers Mato0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Amadou Ba-Sy33%
Pierre Landry Kaboré33%
Tomas Magnusson20%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Jordi Altena17%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cláudio Braga33%
Rogers Mato33%
Josh McPake25%
Sabah Kerjota25%
Blair Spittal17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cláudio Braga50%
Laurent Mendy33%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Hibernian's squad is €2m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€20m vs €22m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Hibernian's attack is €5m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€7m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Hibernian's midfield is €4m more valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€8m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Hibernian and Heart Of Midlothian have a similar defence value (both €5m).
Scotland: Premiership 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Rangers
Motherwell
Aberdeen
Livingston
ST Johnstone
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
Ross County