The encounter between Hibernian and Heart Of Midlothian is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win. Hibernian’s recent form shows a mixed bag of results and a recent defeat, while Hearts have gone unbeaten in their last five outings. The probability of a Hibernian victory stands at 41%, a draw at 28%, and a Hearts win at 32%. The average number of goals expected is 2.7, with the most probable total of two goals at 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.3% chance. Hibernian, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages 1.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded, whereas Hearts, on the road, averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.1%, edge 6%), Under 6.5 (97.8%, edge 3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.6%, edge 5%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.2%, edge 6%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.0%, edge 6%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.0%, edge 4%), and Under 5.5 (94.0%, edge 3%).
Results analysis
The upset came early as Heart Of Midlothian snatched a 3-1 victory, overturning Hibernian’s hopes after a recent defeat. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 41% probability, but the model’s call was wrong. The final score of 1-3 confirmed the away side’s triumph. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.0%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.9%, Under 6.5 at 97.8%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.5%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.1%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.0%, and Under 5.5 at 94.0%. The model’s selections all proved accurate, even as the predicted winner fell short.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hibernian win✗ Miss
40.6%
Avg Implied 39.4% · @ 2.37
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.52
BetVictor
2.45
Unibet
2.43
Dafabet
2.40
William Hil
2.40
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied 27.1% · @ 3.45
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.70
Betano
3.60
Dafabet
3.60
Pinnacle
3.58
10Bet
3.50
Heart Of Midlothian win✓ Hit
31.5%
Avg Implied 33.4% · @ 2.80
Edge
-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.00
Pinnacle
2.99
Marathonbet
2.91
Dafabet
2.90
Betano
2.90
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hibernian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.13
1.62
1.06
1.29
1.21
vs Stronger (7)
1.29
1.14
1.00
1.67
1.50
0.75
vs Similar (12)
1.25
1.50
1.57
1.43
0.80
1.60
vs Weaker (11)
1.82
0.73
2.00
0.33
1.60
1.20
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.27
1.94
0.76
1.31
1.92
vs Stronger (7)
1.29
2.71
1.25
1.50
1.33
4.33
vs Similar (14)
1.86
0.86
2.00
0.50
1.67
1.33
vs Weaker (9)
1.67
0.78
2.40
0.60
0.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.0%
@ 1.21-0.9%
Under 1.5
23.0%
@ 4.23+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Pinnacle
4.43
1xBet
4.30
Betano
4.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.5%
@ 1.71-3.9%
Under 2.5
48.5%
@ 2.12+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.87
SBO
1.86
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathonbet
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Under
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.19
Pinnacle
2.18
Betfair
2.15
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.4%
@ 2.72-5.1%
Under 3.5
70.6%
@ 1.44+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.15
Pinnacle
2.83
Betfair
2.80
Unibet
2.75
10Bet
2.70
Under
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.46
BetVictor
1.45
10Bet
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.5%
@ 1.55-3.5%
No
43.5%
@ 2.32+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.68
Betfair
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
Betano
1.55
No
BetVictor
2.45
1xBet
2.39
Bet365
2.38
William Hil
2.38
Betano
2.35
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%@ 6.39+6.2%
2-1
8.9%@ 8.56+3.6%
1-0
8.3%@ 9.35+3.5%
0-0
7.7%@ 11.94+3.9%
1-2
7.7%@ 9.43+2.9%
0-1
7.0%@ 10.10+2.6%
2-0
7.0%@ 12.40+3.4%
2-2
5.6%@ 10.90+1.5%
Hibernian goals ↓
Heart Of Midlothian goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
7.0%
5.2%
2.2%
0.7%
1
8.3%
13%
7.7%
3.2%
1.0%
2
7.0%
8.9%
5.6%
2.4%
0.8%
3
3.4%
4.3%
2.7%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.3%
1.6%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hibernian goals (down), columns = Heart Of Midlothian goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.16
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Rangers
1.89
Motherwell
1.61
Hibernian
1.50
Falkirk
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.18
Dundee
1.11
Kilmarnock
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.05
ST Mirren
0.95
Hibernian is 0.61 points worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.00
Celtic
1.92
Heart Of Midlothian
1.76
Motherwell
1.55
Hibernian
1.53
Kilmarnock
1.32
Falkirk
1.32
Dundee Utd
1.29
Dundee
1.11
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.00
ST Mirren
0.80
Hibernian is 0.24 goals worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.76).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Motherwell
0.95
Celtic
1.08
Rangers
1.13
Hibernian
1.16
ST Mirren
1.40
Aberdeen
1.45
ST Johnstone
1.56
Dundee Utd
1.58
Dundee
1.61
Falkirk
1.63
Kilmarnock
1.79
Hibernian is 0.26 goals worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of goals conceded per game (1.16 vs 0.89).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
66%
Rangers
58%
Motherwell
58%
Heart Of Midlothian
53%
Falkirk
51%
Aberdeen
48%
Hibernian
47%
ST Mirren
46%
Dundee
44%
Kilmarnock
42%
Dundee Utd
42%
Hibernian is 6.7 percentage points worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of average possession (47% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Hibernian
For 4.7 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 11.1 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heart Of Midlothian
For 5.8 · Against 5.2 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 13.5 · Total 25.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hibernian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
11.4
9.3
4.4
4.5
4.3
23.3
23.2
23.4
vs Stronger (12)
10.9
11.6
10.3
4.7
5.6
4.0
21.7
22.0
21.5
vs Similar (21)
9.6
10.3
8.9
5.0
5.7
4.4
24.6
24.9
24.4
vs Weaker (17)
11.0
12.9
8.8
3.5
2.6
4.6
22.6
21.7
23.7
% over line
62%
73%
52%
62%
58%
65%
69%
68%
70%
% under line
38%
27%
48%
38%
42%
35%
31%
32%
30%
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.0
10.5
4.2
3.2
5.4
24.7
24.0
25.4
vs Stronger (11)
10.4
10.4
10.4
4.6
3.7
5.8
23.8
24.6
23.0
vs Similar (23)
10.0
9.8
10.2
4.7
3.8
5.9
25.6
25.2
26.2
vs Weaker (16)
10.4
9.8
10.9
3.3
2.0
4.6
23.7
21.2
25.9
% over line
62%
61%
64%
58%
37%
83%
67%
61%
73%
% under line
38%
39%
36%
42%
63%
17%
33%
39%
27%
This opponent (Hibernian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
ST Mirren
11.1
Celtic
11.0
Dundee Utd
10.5
Aberdeen
10.4
Hibernian
10.4
Heart Of Midlothian
10.3
Rangers
10.1
ST Johnstone
10.1
Dundee
9.7
Falkirk
9.6
Kilmarnock
9.5
Motherwell
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aberdeen
4.7
Hibernian
4.7
Motherwell
4.7
Heart Of Midlothian
4.6
Rangers
4.3
Kilmarnock
4.2
Falkirk
4.2
Dundee Utd
4.1
ST Johnstone
4.0
Celtic
3.8
Dundee
3.7
ST Mirren
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rangers
26.7
Motherwell
25.9
Aberdeen
25.6
Falkirk
25.4
Heart Of Midlothian
24.3
Kilmarnock
24.2
Hibernian
23.2
ST Mirren
22.2
ST Johnstone
22.2
Dundee
21.9
Dundee Utd
21.9
Celtic
21.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
64.4%
@ 1.70+9.8%
Under 9.5
35.6%
@ 2.04-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.67
Under
Unibet
2.12
Pinnacle
2.10
Marathonbet
2.05
1xBet
2.03
Betano
2.02
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
73.1%
@ 1.31+4.4%
Under 3.5
26.9%
@ 2.88-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.36
Superbet
1.26
Under
Superbet
3.05
Unibet
2.70
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
68.3%
Under 21.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hibernian or Draw✗ Miss
68.5%
Avg Implied 66.3% · @ 1.41
Edge
+2.2%
41%
28%
32%
covers Hibernian + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.45
Superbet
1.45
William Hil
1.44
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.42
Hibernian or Heart Of Midlothian✓ Hit
72.1%
Avg Implied 73.0% · @ 1.28
Edge
-0.9%
41%
28%
32%
covers Hibernian + Heart Of Midlothian
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.32
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Unibet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Draw or Heart Of Midlothian✓ Hit
59.4%
Avg Implied 60.7% · @ 1.54
Edge
-1.3%
41%
28%
32%
covers Draw + Heart Of Midlothian
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.55
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hibernian over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.9%
@ 1.21-0.3%
Under
23.1%
@ 4.09+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.42
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.15
BetVictor
4.10
Hibernian over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
43.1%
@ 2.06-2.5%
Under
56.9%
@ 1.73+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.27
Pinnacle
2.11
Unibet
2.08
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
Under
Betfair
1.80
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.77
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Hibernian over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.3%
@ 4.41-2.9%
Under
81.7%
@ 1.19+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.00
Unibet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.48
Bet365
4.33
Under
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Hibernian over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.2%
@ 10.13-3.2%
Under
93.8%
@ 1.04+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
10.50
Unibet
10.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.9%
@ 1.26-2.5%
Under
28.1%
@ 3.64+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.27
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Under
BetVictor
3.80
Pinnacle
3.79
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
1xBet
3.74
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
36.2%
@ 2.27-5.1%
Under
63.8%
@ 1.60+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.42
Superbet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.38
Betfair
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Under
1xBet
1.64
Betfair
1.62
Bet365
1.62
BetVictor
1.62
Unibet
1.61
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
13.6%
@ 5.09-4.8%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.14+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.60
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.45
1xBet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Under
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.0%
@ 11.81-4.0%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.03+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
11.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hibernian, so a minus line means Hibernian give that many goals of a start and Heart Of Midlothian receive them. At -1, Hibernian must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hibernian win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hibernian)Actual: Heart Of Midlothian
Hibernian -2
7.8%
@ 10.18-1.1%
Draw -2
12.5%
@ 6.84-0.7%
Heart Of Midlothian +2
79.8%
@ 1.16+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
10.00
Superbet
9.80
Marathonbet
9.30
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.95
Superbet
6.60
10Bet
6.50
Away
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
Handicap -1 (Hibernian)Actual: Heart Of Midlothian
Hibernian -1
20.2%
@ 4.48+0.2%
Draw -1
20.4%
@ 4.12-1.4%
Heart Of Midlothian +1
59.4%
@ 1.54+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
4.65
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Unibet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Away
Marathonbet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Handicap +1 (Hibernian)Actual: Heart Of Midlothian
Hibernian +1
68.5%
@ 1.41+4.7%
Draw +1
17.5%
@ 4.49-2.6%
Heart Of Midlothian -1
14.1%
@ 5.54-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.44
Superbet
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.38
Draw
Marathonbet
4.80
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.35
10Bet
4.33
Away
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
5.90
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.10
Handicap +2 (Hibernian)Actual: Draw
Hibernian +2
85.9%
@ 1.12+6.5%
Draw +2
9.3%
@ 7.12-3.2%
Heart Of Midlothian -2
4.7%
@ 11.12-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.13
Unibet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Draw
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
7.50
Superbet
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Away
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
11.00
Superbet
11.00
10Bet
11.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hibernian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.33
0.75
0.25
0.64
0.43
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.57
0.33
0.67
0.75
0.50
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.42
0.57
0.29
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (11)
0.91
0.09
1.17
0.00
0.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.59
0.18
0.69
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.14
0.00
0.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.43
0.75
0.12
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (9)
0.67
0.22
0.80
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.2%
@ 1.32-0.8%
Under 0.5
29.8%
@ 3.21+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.38
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Under
William Hil
3.40
Pinnacle
3.34
Betfair
3.30
BetVictor
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
34.9%
@ 2.47-2.8%
Under 1.5
65.1%
@ 1.50+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.58
Betano
2.52
Unibet
2.50
Marathonbet
2.50
Under
William Hil
1.53
Betano
1.53
BetVictor
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
1xBet
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.4%
@ 5.95-3.2%
Under 2.5
87.6%
@ 1.10+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
6.60
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
44.2%
@ 1.90-4.9%
Under
55.8%
@ 1.83+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.00
Unibet
1.92
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
Betano
1.85
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
Hibernian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.1%
@ 5.60-3.4%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.11+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
6.00
1xBet
5.85
Marathonbet
5.80
Unibet
5.60
10Bet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
Hibernian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 15.50-4.2%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.02+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
44.0%
@ 2.03-1.9%
Under
56.0%
@ 1.72+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.12
Superbet
2.07
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
Unibet
1.98
Under
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.74
Unibet
1.74
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
10.6%
@ 6.22-4.3%
Under
89.4%
@ 1.09+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.10
1xBet
6.50
Superbet
6.40
Betano
5.80
Unibet
5.80
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 16.88-3.6%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.02+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hibernian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
0.88
0.81
0.64
0.79
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.57
0.67
1.00
0.75
0.25
vs Similar (12)
0.67
1.08
1.00
1.14
0.20
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
0.91
0.64
0.83
0.33
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.73
1.35
0.59
0.62
0.92
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.57
1.25
1.00
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.43
1.25
0.38
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
0.56
1.60
0.60
0.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.7%
@ 1.18-4.2%
Under 0.5
25.3%
@ 4.40+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Under
1xBet
4.70
Betano
4.55
Marathonbet
4.50
Unibet
4.40
William Hil
4.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
42.8%
@ 1.90-6.5%
Under 1.5
57.2%
@ 1.84+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.10
Bet365
1.91
Marathonbet
1.89
Unibet
1.86
Betano
1.85
Under
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.4%
@ 3.79-6.1%
Under 2.5
81.6%
@ 1.23+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.40
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.75
Unibet
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Under
Betano
1.29
William Hil
1.25
Unibet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
51.1%
@ 1.62-6.1%
Under
48.9%
@ 2.17+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.16
Superbet
2.00
Hibernian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.7%
@ 4.01-4.4%
Under
81.3%
@ 1.20+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.00
10Bet
4.00
1xBet
3.90
Betano
3.65
Under
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Superbet
1.17
Hibernian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 10.75-4.8%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.03+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.02
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
51.1%
@ 1.72-2.9%
Under
48.9%
@ 2.02+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.72
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.67
Under
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.07
Marathonbet
1.98
Superbet
1.95
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.2%
@ 4.48-1.6%
Under
80.8%
@ 1.17+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.85
Superbet
4.75
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Betano
4.15
Under
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.5%
@ 11.75-4.5%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.02+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.5%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.1%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.0%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.0%
1.04
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
BetVictor
1.03
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.8%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.4%
1.09
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
+4.3%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.6%
1.10
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.9%
1.11
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.4%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
1xBet
1.14
+4.8%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
85.9%
1.12
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.13
Unibet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
+6.5%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
85.8%
1.15
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.18
10Bet
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
81.7%
1.19
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
1xBet
1.18
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.6%
1.23
Betano
1.29
William Hil
1.25
Unibet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.3%
1.20
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Superbet
1.17
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.8%
1.17
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
79.8%
1.16
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.0%
1.21
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.20
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
76.9%
1.21
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
75.5%
1.41
Superbet
1.48
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.38
Unibet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
+10.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.7%
1.18
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
-4.2%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.1%
1.31
Unibet
1.36
Superbet
1.26
-
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.1%
1.28
Superbet
1.32
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Unibet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
71.9%
1.26
Superbet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.27
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.6%
1.44
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.46
BetVictor
1.45
10Bet
1.44
+5.1%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.2%
1.32
Superbet
1.38
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
-0.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hibernian
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
M. Boyle50%
C. Wright50%
A. Mayor25%
F. Passlack20%
J. Kerr20%
R. Sallinger0%
Josh Mulligan0%
J. McGrath0%
Jordan Obita0%
T. Klidje0%
Warren O'Hora0%
A. Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
N. Lowe0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
F. Passlack20%
Josh Mulligan20%
A. Šuto20%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa20%
R. Sallinger0%
M. Boyle0%
J. Kerr0%
J. McGrath0%
Jordan Obita0%
T. Klidje0%
Warren O'Hora0%
C. Wright0%
N. Lowe0%
A. Mayor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Josh Mulligan40%
J. McGrath25%
F. Passlack20%
N. Lowe20%
R. Sallinger0%
M. Boyle0%
J. Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
T. Klidje0%
Warren O'Hora0%
C. Wright0%
A. Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
A. Mayor0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Josh Mulligan40%
N. Lowe40%
M. Boyle25%
J. McGrath25%
A. Mayor25%
R. Sallinger0%
F. Passlack0%
J. Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
T. Klidje0%
Warren O'Hora0%
C. Wright0%
A. Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Heart Of Midlothian
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Wilson60%
Josh McPake40%
C. Miller29%
Tom Renaud25%
L. Mendy25%
P. Kabore17%
O. McEntee14%
Cláudio Braga14%
Tomas Magnusson0%
B. Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
J. McCart0%
B. Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
H. Milne0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
S. Guendouz0%
Rogers Mato0%
Jordi Altena0%
S. Kerjota0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
H. Milne33%
Amadou Ba-Sy33%
P. Kabore33%
Tomas Magnusson17%
O. McEntee14%
Cláudio Braga14%
Jordi Altena14%
B. Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
J. McCart0%
C. Miller0%
B. Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
S. Guendouz0%
Rogers Mato0%
J. Wilson0%
S. Kerjota0%
L. Mendy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Josh McPake40%
Rogers Mato33%
B. Spittal29%
Cláudio Braga29%
S. Kerjota20%
J. McCart17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
B. Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
C. Miller0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Tom Renaud0%
H. Milne0%
O. McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
S. Guendouz0%
P. Kabore0%
J. Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
L. Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cláudio Braga57%
L. Mendy25%
Tomas Magnusson0%
B. Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
J. McCart0%
C. Miller0%
B. Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
H. Milne0%
O. McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
S. Guendouz0%
P. Kabore0%
Rogers Mato0%
J. Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
S. Kerjota0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
Hibernian's squad is €2m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€20m vs €22m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
Hibernian's attack is €5m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€7m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
Hibernian's midfield is €4m more valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€8m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
Hibernian and Heart Of Midlothian have a similar defence value (both €5m).
Scotland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Celtic
ST Mirren
Motherwell
Dundee
Rangers
ST Johnstone
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
Falkirk
Kilmarnock