Hibernian vs Kilmarnock Result & Analysis

Hibernian are tipped to win, with the model assigning a 48% chance of a home victory, 29% for a draw and 23% for a Kilmarnock win. The expected total is 2.3 goals, centring on a 2-goal match; the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.8% probability. Hibernian, playing at home against a weaker side, average 2.29 goals scored and 1.14 conceded, while Kilmarnock, on the road against a stronger opponent, average 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 79.9%, Under 3.5 at 79.1%, Under 5.5 cards at 77.8% (miss), Over 2.5 cards at 76.8%, and Under 11.5 corners at 74.6%. The recent form narrative notes Hibernian arrive after a win, whereas Kilmarnock come off a defeat. The model’s selection for the match outcome remains a home win, with the probabilities for each result explicitly stated.

The 0-0 draw shocked the pundits, as the pre-match favourite, Hibernian, failed to secure the win the model had predicted with a 48% probability. The result was a draw, the most likely outcome at 29%. The model’s call was therefore wrong. The match delivered a clean sheet for both sides, with Hibernian’s recent form note that they were coming off a win and Kilmarnock’s note that they were coming off a defeat. The model’s suggested picks performed variably: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 79.9%, Under 3.5 hit at 79.1%, Under 5.5 cards missed at 77.8%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 76.8%, and Under 11.5 corners hit at 74.6%.