Hibernian are tipped to win this encounter, a result that aligns with the model’s pick. The odds suggest a 44% chance of a home victory, 30% for a draw and 26% for Kilmarnock. The expected total is 2.4 goals, with the most probable scoreline 1-1 at a 14.1% probability. Hibs have been productive at home against weaker opposition, averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.44 conceded, while Kilmarnock, playing away against stronger teams, have struggled, netting only 1.0 and conceding 2.2 on average. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 89.6%, Over 19.5 fouls at 88.5%, Under 4.5 cards at 78.3%, Under 3.5 goals at 78.2%, Over 21.5 fouls at 78.1%, Over 8.5 corners at 70.3% and Over 1.5 goals at 70.1%. Hibernian’s recent form, coming off a win, and Kilmarnock’s recent defeat set the stage for a likely home triumph.
Results analysis
The Pythia model’s prediction proved accurate as Hibernian secured a 2-0 victory, extending their recent run with a win after a 2-1 triumph over Dundee. The model had named a home win as the favourite, assigning it a 44% probability, and that call was correct. The most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 14.1% and 1-0 at 11.4%, yet the actual 2-0 result was a clean sweep for the hosts. Every suggested selection hit: Under 5.5 cards at 89.6%, Over 19.5 fouls at 88.5%, Under 4.5 cards at 78.3%, Under 3.5 at 78.2%, Over 21.5 fouls at 78.1%, Over 8.5 corners at 70.3%, and Over 1.5 at 70.1%. The model’s choices were spot on.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hibernian win✓ Hit
43.9%
Avg Implied 48.1% · @ 1.96
Edge
-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.7%
Avg Implied 28.2% · @ 3.34
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock win✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied 23.7% · @ 3.98
Edge
+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hibernian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.20
1.33
1.47
1.47
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.83
2.00
2.00
0.50
1.75
vs Similar (8)
0.88
1.25
0.50
1.25
1.25
1.25
vs Weaker (16)
1.81
0.94
1.56
1.44
2.14
0.29
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kilmarnock
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.33
1.53
1.20
0.93
1.47
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
1.70
0.80
1.20
1.00
2.20
vs Similar (20)
1.40
1.15
1.90
1.20
0.90
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.1%
Under 1.5
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.7%
@ 2.03-4.1%
Under 2.5
57.3%
@ 1.78+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.8%
Under 3.5
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.8%
No
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
1-0
11.4%
0-0
10.5%
2-1
8.8%
2-0 ✓
8.7%
0-1
8.0%
1-2
6.5%
0-2
4.7%
Hibernian goals ↓
Kilmarnock goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
8.0%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.5%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.7%
8.8%
4.4%
1.5%
0.4%
3
4.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.4%
1.4%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hibernian goals (down), columns = Kilmarnock goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rangers
2.68
Celtic
2.03
Hibernian
1.66
Aberdeen
1.47
Livingston
1.18
ST Mirren
1.18
Motherwell
1.18
ST Johnstone
1.18
Dundee Utd
1.16
Ross County
1.03
Kilmarnock
0.95
Hamilton
0.79
Hibernian is 0.71 points better than Kilmarnock in terms of average points per game (1.66 vs 0.95).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.42
Celtic
2.05
Hibernian
1.26
Kilmarnock
1.13
Livingston
1.11
Motherwell
1.03
ST Mirren
0.97
Aberdeen
0.95
ST Johnstone
0.95
Ross County
0.92
Hamilton
0.89
Dundee Utd
0.84
Hibernian is 0.13 goals better than Kilmarnock in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 1.13).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rangers
0.34
Celtic
0.76
Hibernian
0.92
Aberdeen
1.00
ST Mirren
1.18
ST Johnstone
1.21
Dundee Utd
1.32
Livingston
1.42
Kilmarnock
1.42
Motherwell
1.45
Ross County
1.74
Hamilton
1.76
Hibernian is 0.50 goals better than Kilmarnock in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Hibernian
For 6.3 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 13.2 · Total 25.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kilmarnock
For 5.4 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 14.3 · Total 26.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hibernian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.8
10.6
3.2
3.2
3.3
24.6
24.7
24.5
vs Stronger (9)
11.2
9.0
13.0
4.0
6.0
2.4
23.1
24.5
22.0
vs Similar (15)
11.3
12.3
10.4
3.5
2.9
4.1
26.3
27.6
25.2
vs Weaker (26)
10.2
10.6
9.8
2.8
2.5
3.2
24.2
23.2
25.1
% over line
58%
62%
54%
36%
33%
38%
70%
71%
69%
% under line
42%
38%
46%
64%
67%
62%
30%
29%
31%
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kilmarnock
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.9
10.6
3.4
3.3
3.5
24.5
25.4
23.7
vs Stronger (17)
10.6
10.1
11.0
3.0
3.4
2.7
23.4
26.0
21.1
vs Similar (33)
10.0
9.8
10.3
3.6
3.3
3.9
25.1
25.1
25.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
52%
40%
52%
56%
48%
74%
80%
68%
% under line
54%
48%
60%
48%
44%
52%
26%
20%
32%
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rangers
10.9
Dundee Utd
10.9
Hamilton
10.8
Hibernian
10.7
Ross County
10.6
ST Mirren
10.6
Motherwell
10.3
Celtic
10.2
Kilmarnock
10.2
ST Johnstone
9.6
Aberdeen
9.5
Livingston
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Motherwell
3.6
Dundee Utd
3.4
Kilmarnock
3.4
Ross County
3.4
ST Johnstone
3.4
Rangers
3.3
Hibernian
3.2
Celtic
3.2
ST Mirren
3.2
Livingston
3.1
Hamilton
3.0
Aberdeen
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.4
Hamilton
24.9
ST Johnstone
24.8
Motherwell
24.7
Hibernian
24.6
Ross County
24.6
Kilmarnock
24.5
Livingston
24.4
ST Mirren
23.5
Rangers
23.1
Dundee Utd
23.1
Celtic
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.3%
Under 9.5
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.5%
Under 3.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
78.1%
Under 21.5
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hibernian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
0.80
0.60
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.83
0.50
0.50
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.25
0.38
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
1.25
0.50
1.11
0.78
1.43
0.14
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kilmarnock
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
1.00
0.40
1.20
0.80
0.80
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.50
0.80
0.40
0.50
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hibernian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.53
0.87
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.00
1.50
1.50
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.88
0.25
1.00
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (16)
0.56
0.44
0.44
0.67
0.71
0.14
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kilmarnock
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.87
0.53
0.33
0.80
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.70
0.40
0.00
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.65
1.10
0.80
0.40
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hibernian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martin Boyle67%
Callum Wright67%
Felix Passlack25%
Jason Kerr25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Josh Mulligan0%
Jamie McGrath0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Felix Passlack25%
Josh Mulligan25%
Ante Šuto25%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Martin Boyle0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jamie McGrath0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jamie McGrath33%
Felix Passlack25%
Josh Mulligan25%
Nathan Lowe25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Martin Boyle0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Martin Boyle33%
Jamie McGrath33%
Josh Mulligan25%
Nathan Lowe25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Felix Passlack0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Kilmarnock · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Greg Kiltie33%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen33%
Joe Hugill33%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Bailey Rice0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joe Hugill67%
Tyreece John-Jules33%
Jamie Brandon33%
Bailey Rice33%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom Lowery67%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Joe Hugill0%
Bailey Rice0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Hugill33%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Bailey Rice0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Hibernian's squad is €13m more valuable than Kilmarnock's (€20m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Hibernian's attack is €5m more valuable than Kilmarnock's (€7m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Hibernian's midfield is €6m more valuable than Kilmarnock's (€8m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Hibernian's defence is €2m more valuable than Kilmarnock's (€5m vs €3m).
Scotland: Premiership 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →