PythiaFootballBETA
Hibernian, on a 2-game winning run, hosts Motherwell at Easter Road. The model predicts a home win, with a 48% chance of Hibernian taking the three points, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 26% chance of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring 12.6% of the time.
Hibernian have been scoring an average of 1.71 goals at home against weaker opponents, conceding 0.43 goals. Motherwell, meanwhile, have scored an average of 1.17 goals away against stronger opponents, but conceded 1.67 goals. The model's selection is the Over 1.5 goals, with a 78.8% chance of occurrence and a 6% edge, indicating a slight advantage in this market. The model also suggests the Over 3.5 cards, with a 72.3% chance and a 10% edge. Hibernian has a 48% chance of winning, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 26% chance of losing.
Hibernian's 2-game winning run came to an end as they fell to a 1-2 defeat at home to Motherwell. The actual result was an away win. The pre-match favourite, a Home win, according to the model, did not come through, with the model's call being incorrect. The model's selection, Home win, had a 48% probability of occurring. Meanwhile, the model's suggested picks of Over 1.5 goals and Over 3.5 cards both hit, with probabilities of 78.8% and 72.3% respectively.
Hibernian| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.53 | 1.13 | 1.62 | 0.88 | 1.43 | 1.43 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.86 | 1.14 | 0.50 | 1.25 | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (10) | 1.70 | 1.50 | 2.40 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 1.77 | 0.85 | 1.71 | 0.43 | 1.83 | 1.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
Motherwell| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.57 | 0.80 | 1.73 | 0.53 | 1.40 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 1.30 | 1.10 | 1.40 | 0.80 | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.70 | 0.65 | 1.90 | 0.40 | 1.50 | 0.90 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
| Motherwell goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 8.6% | 13% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 8.1% | 9.5% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 4.5% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
HibernianMotherwellHibernian| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.9 | 11.8 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 22.7 | 22.8 | 22.6 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 11.6 | 12.4 | 10.8 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 21.5 | 22.4 | 20.6 |
| vs Similar (18) | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 23.3 | 23.0 | 23.5 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 10.8 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 22.8 | 22.9 | 22.8 |
| % over line | 71% | 77% | 65% | 62% | 52% | 72% | 62% | 64% | 61% |
| % under line | 29% | 23% | 35% | 38% | 48% | 28% | 38% | 36% | 39% |
Motherwell| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.6 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 25.8 | 26.2 | 25.3 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 8.3 | 6.8 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 25.3 | 25.0 | 25.6 |
| vs Similar (36) | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 26.2 | 26.7 | 25.7 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 11.0 | - | 11.0 | 3.0 | - | 3.0 | 18.0 | - | 18.0 |
| % over line | 36% | 21% | 50% | 66% | 67% | 65% | 72% | 75% | 69% |
| % under line | 64% | 79% | 50% | 34% | 33% | 35% | 28% | 25% | 31% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 78.8% | 1.29 | 1.31 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.29 | +5.9% | â Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 73.4% | 1.45 | 1.48 | 1.42 | - | - | - | +10.9% | â Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 70.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | â Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 10/01/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 25/11/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 11/01/25 | H | 3-1 | |
| 30/11/24 | A | 0-3 | |
| 05/10/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 15/05/24 | H | 3-0 |
Hibernian| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 13/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 0-0 |
Motherwell| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 13/05/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value âŽm | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Celtic | 2 | 6 | 100% | 3.0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 3.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 12.5 | 100% | 1.5 | 0% | 19.0 | 50% | 154 | 55 | 38 | 60 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 66% |
| 2 |  ST Mirren | 2 | 6 | 100% | 3.0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 1.5 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 10.5 | 50% | 3.5 | 50% | 27.5 | 50% | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 46% |
| 3 | Motherwell | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2.0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 1.5 | 50% | 50% | 0% | 7.5 | 50% | 4.0 | 100% | 30.0 | 100% | 21 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 58% |
| 4 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 100% | 50% | 9.5 | 50% | 4.0 | 50% | 24.5 | 100% | 33 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 53% |
| 5 |  Dundee | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 1.5 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 | 50% | 3.0 | 50% | 18.5 | 0% | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 44% |
| 6 |  ST Johnstone | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 4.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 8.0 | 0% | 3.5 | 50% | 19.0 | 0% | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 7 | Hibernian | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 10.5 | 100% | 3.0 | 50% | 25.5 | 100% | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 47% |
| 8 |  Aberdeen | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | 9.5 | 50% | 4.5 | 100% | 24.0 | 50% | 24 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 9 |  Rangers | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | 12.5 | 100% | 3.0 | 50% | 27.0 | 100% | 127 | 59 | 28 | 40 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 58% |
| 10 |  Falkirk | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1.0 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 | 50% | 4.0 | 100% | 34.5 | 100% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 51% |
| 11 |  Dundee Utd | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 12.0 | 50% | 3.5 | 50% | 26.0 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 42% |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 6.5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 10.5 | 50% | 2.5 | 50% | 20.5 | 50% | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 42% |