Rangers are the clear favourite, the model giving them a 66% chance of victory. Their strong away form - scoring 2.0 goals and conceding only 0.79 against weaker opposition - contrasts sharply with Hibernian’s home struggles, where they average only 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded to stronger teams. The predicted 2.9 total goals and the most likely scoreline of 0-2 (12.3%) underline the expectation that Rangers will dominate the match. The model’s pick is an away win, and the expected total of 2.9 goals is close to the 2-goal average, suggesting a tight but decisive game. Hibernian’s recent form, coming off a defeat, and Rangers’ recent loss both hint at a cautious start, but Rangers’ superior attacking output at home gives them the edge. The home win probability is 12%, a draw 21%, and an away win 66%. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls (82.3%), Under 5.5 cards (81.6%), Over 8.5 corners (76.7%), and Over 2.5 cards (73.0%). The model also lists Over 1.5 goals (79.0%) as a selection, though it is marked as a miss.
Results analysis
The win for Rangers extends their recent run, with the 0-1 result confirming the model’s pick of an away victory. The model had assigned a 66% probability to this outcome, and it proved correct. The predicted total of 2.9 goals fell short of the actual 1, but the most likely scoreline of 0-2 (24% chance) was not reached. The model’s selections largely came through: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 82.3%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 81.6%, Over 8.5 corners hit at 76.7%, and Over 2.5 cards hit at 73.0%. Only Over 1.5 missed, scoring 79.0%. Overall, the model’s forecast was largely accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hibernian win✗ Miss
12.2%
Avg Implied 14.2% · @ 6.60
Edge
-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.5%
Avg Implied 21.8% · @ 4.32
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rangers win✓ Hit
66.3%
Avg Implied 64.0% · @ 1.47
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hibernian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.07
1.13
1.07
1.20
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.50
0.33
1.33
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (8)
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.67
1.20
0.60
vs Weaker (16)
1.44
0.94
1.56
0.78
1.29
1.14
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
0.73
2.53
0.67
1.93
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
2.00
0.67
2.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (27)
2.26
0.74
2.54
0.69
2.00
0.79
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.0%
Under 1.5
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.7%
@ 1.76+1.1%
Under 2.5
45.3%
@ 2.03-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.3%
Under 3.5
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.8%
No
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
12.3%
0-1 ✓
10.9%
1-1
10.3%
1-2
9.7%
0-3
8.5%
1-3
6.7%
0-0
6.6%
0-4
4.4%
Hibernian goals ↓
Rangers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
11%
12%
8.5%
4.4%
1
3.6%
10%
9.7%
6.7%
3.5%
2
1.8%
3.7%
3.8%
2.7%
1.4%
3
0.5%
1.0%
1.0%
0.7%
0.4%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hibernian goals (down), columns = Rangers goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.45
Rangers
2.34
Heart Of Midlothian
1.61
Livingston
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.26
Motherwell
1.21
Hibernian
1.18
ST Mirren
1.16
Aberdeen
1.08
Ross County
1.08
ST Johnstone
0.92
Dundee
0.76
Hibernian is 1.16 points worse than Rangers in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 2.34).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.42
Rangers
2.11
Heart Of Midlothian
1.42
Ross County
1.24
Motherwell
1.11
Aberdeen
1.08
Livingston
1.08
Hibernian
1.00
Dundee Utd
0.97
Dundee
0.89
ST Mirren
0.87
ST Johnstone
0.63
Hibernian is 1.11 goals worse than Rangers in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.58
Rangers
0.82
Hibernian
1.11
Dundee Utd
1.16
Heart Of Midlothian
1.16
Aberdeen
1.21
Livingston
1.21
ST Mirren
1.34
ST Johnstone
1.34
Motherwell
1.61
Ross County
1.61
Dundee
1.68
Hibernian is 0.29 goals worse than Rangers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 0.82).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Hibernian
For 5.3 · Against 6.2 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 12.5 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rangers
For 9.6 · Against 3.1 · Total 12.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 11.4 · Total 23.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hibernian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.7
9.5
3.3
2.9
3.7
25.3
24.5
26.0
vs Stronger (10)
10.8
9.8
11.8
3.5
3.6
3.4
24.2
24.6
23.8
vs Similar (14)
10.4
12.2
9.0
3.1
2.0
3.9
26.6
26.2
26.9
vs Weaker (26)
9.6
10.3
8.9
3.4
3.0
3.8
25.0
23.6
26.3
% over line
52%
62%
42%
36%
25%
46%
78%
75%
81%
% under line
48%
38%
58%
64%
75%
54%
22%
25%
19%
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.9
10.2
3.5
3.2
3.8
23.4
22.7
24.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
10.2
10.0
10.5
4.0
4.0
4.0
27.8
26.3
30.0
vs Weaker (45)
10.6
11.0
10.1
3.4
3.0
3.8
22.9
22.2
23.6
% over line
56%
56%
56%
46%
32%
60%
70%
64%
76%
% under line
44%
44%
44%
54%
68%
40%
30%
36%
24%
This opponent (Hibernian) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Celtic
10.8
Dundee
10.6
Heart Of Midlothian
10.6
Rangers
10.5
Dundee Utd
10.4
Motherwell
10.4
Ross County
10.3
ST Mirren
10.1
Hibernian
10.1
Aberdeen
9.9
ST Johnstone
9.5
Livingston
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Motherwell
3.8
Dundee Utd
3.7
ST Johnstone
3.7
Dundee
3.6
Heart Of Midlothian
3.6
Rangers
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Livingston
3.3
Hibernian
3.3
Aberdeen
3.3
ST Mirren
3.2
Celtic
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.7
Heart Of Midlothian
26.0
Motherwell
26.0
ST Johnstone
25.6
Dundee
25.3
Hibernian
25.3
Livingston
25.1
Dundee Utd
24.7
Ross County
24.6
ST Mirren
24.4
Rangers
23.4
Celtic
22.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
65.8%
Under 9.5
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.5%
Under 3.5
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
69.1%
Under 21.5
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hibernian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.53
0.60
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.62
0.33
0.67
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (16)
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.44
0.29
0.57
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.37
1.27
0.33
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (27)
1.04
0.33
1.31
0.31
0.79
0.36
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hibernian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.60
0.47
0.80
0.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.83
0.00
0.33
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.38
0.33
1.00
0.60
0.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.94
0.44
0.89
0.33
1.00
0.57
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rangers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.37
1.27
0.33
1.13
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (27)
1.22
0.41
1.23
0.38
1.21
0.43
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hibernian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Felix Passlack33%
Jason Kerr33%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Josh Mulligan0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Josh Mulligan33%
Ante Šuto33%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa33%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Felix Passlack0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Josh Mulligan33%
Nathan Lowe33%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Felix Passlack0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Josh Mulligan33%
Nathan Lowe33%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Felix Passlack0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Rangers · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Thelo Aasgaard33%
Ryan Don Naderi25%
Cameron Devlin0%
Ivor Pandur0%
Dan Neil0%
Dujon Sterling0%
Lawrence Shankland0%
Daisuke Yokota0%
Emmanuel Fernandez0%
Djeidi Gassama0%
Olwethu Makhanya0%
Findlay Curtis0%
Vanja Dragojević0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dan Neil67%
Dujon Sterling33%
Vanja Dragojević33%
Lawrence Shankland25%
Emmanuel Fernandez25%
Cameron Devlin0%
Ivor Pandur0%
Daisuke Yokota0%
Thelo Aasgaard0%
Ryan Don Naderi0%
Djeidi Gassama0%
Olwethu Makhanya0%
Findlay Curtis0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daisuke Yokota33%
Cameron Devlin0%
Ivor Pandur0%
Dan Neil0%
Dujon Sterling0%
Lawrence Shankland0%
Thelo Aasgaard0%
Ryan Don Naderi0%
Emmanuel Fernandez0%
Djeidi Gassama0%
Olwethu Makhanya0%
Findlay Curtis0%
Vanja Dragojević0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thelo Aasgaard33%
Vanja Dragojević33%
Djeidi Gassama25%
Cameron Devlin0%
Ivor Pandur0%
Dan Neil0%
Dujon Sterling0%
Lawrence Shankland0%
Daisuke Yokota0%
Ryan Don Naderi0%
Emmanuel Fernandez0%
Olwethu Makhanya0%
Findlay Curtis0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Hibernian's squad is €116m less valuable than Rangers's (€20m vs €136m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Hibernian's attack is €31m less valuable than Rangers's (€7m vs €38m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Hibernian's midfield is €37m less valuable than Rangers's (€8m vs €44m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Hibernian's defence is €49m less valuable than Rangers's (€5m vs €54m).
Scotland: Premiership 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Heart Of Midlothian
Livingston
Dundee Utd
Motherwell
ST Mirren
Aberdeen
Ross County
ST Johnstone
Dundee