Hibernian are the clear favourites, the model rating them at 72% for a home win, a figure that reflects their strong home form and the venue advantage against Ross County. The expected total is 2.9 goals, with the most likely scoreline 2-0 for Hibernian at 13.8%. Hibernian average 2.0 goals scored and 1.12 conceded at home against weaker opposition, while Ross County, playing away against a stronger side, averages only 0.29 goals scored and 2.14 conceded. The model’s picks include an 79.2% chance of Over 1.5 goals, a 72.2% chance of a Home win (edge 9%), and a 19% draw and 9% away win. The single most likely outcome remains a Home win, 2-0. The model also lists the selection Over 1.5 with 79.2% probability, and the Home win selection with 72.2% probability. The probabilities for the match result are 72%home win, 19% draw, 9% away win.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Ross County snatched a 2-0 victory over Hibernian, ending the home side’s brief win streak and extending the visitors’ five-game winning run. The pre-match favourite was Hibernian, with the model assigning a 72.2% chance of a home win; the prediction was wrong. The model’s other selections were Over 1.5 goals, which hit, and Home win, which missed. The final score of 0-2 matched the actual result of an away win. The model’s 72.2% probability for a home win and 79.2% for over 1.5 goals were the only figures used.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hibernian win✗ Miss
72.2%
Avg Implied 63.3% · @ 1.49
Edge
+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.0%
Avg Implied 21.3% · @ 4.43
Edge
-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ross County win✓ Hit
8.8%
Avg Implied 15.4% · @ 6.13
Edge
-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hibernian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.10
1.57
1.29
1.31
0.94
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (9)
0.78
1.11
0.50
1.25
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
1.94
0.81
2.00
1.12
1.88
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ross County) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ross County
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.87
0.57
1.64
0.56
2.06
vs Stronger (13)
0.15
2.15
0.00
2.17
0.29
2.14
vs Similar (17)
0.88
1.65
1.00
1.25
0.78
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.2%
Under 1.5
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.2%
@ 1.69-0.8%
Under 2.5
44.8%
@ 2.15+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.9%
Under 3.5
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.2%
No
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.8%
1-0
11.5%
3-0
10.2%
2-1
9.2%
1-1
9.0%
3-1
6.8%
0-0
6.4%
4-0
5.7%
Hibernian goals ↓
Ross County goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
2.9%
1.2%
0.3%
0.0%
1
12%
9.0%
2.7%
0.6%
0.1%
2
14%
9.2%
3.0%
0.7%
0.1%
3
10%
6.8%
2.3%
0.5%
0.1%
4
5.7%
3.8%
1.3%
0.3%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hibernian goals (down), columns = Ross County goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rangers
2.68
Celtic
2.03
Hibernian
1.66
Aberdeen
1.47
Livingston
1.18
ST Mirren
1.18
Motherwell
1.18
ST Johnstone
1.18
Dundee Utd
1.16
Ross County
1.03
Kilmarnock
0.95
Hamilton
0.79
Hibernian is 0.63 points better than Ross County in terms of average points per game (1.66 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.42
Celtic
2.05
Hibernian
1.26
Kilmarnock
1.13
Livingston
1.11
Motherwell
1.03
ST Mirren
0.97
Aberdeen
0.95
ST Johnstone
0.95
Ross County
0.92
Hamilton
0.89
Dundee Utd
0.84
Hibernian is 0.34 goals better than Ross County in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 0.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rangers
0.34
Celtic
0.76
Hibernian
0.92
Aberdeen
1.00
ST Mirren
1.18
ST Johnstone
1.21
Dundee Utd
1.32
Livingston
1.42
Kilmarnock
1.42
Motherwell
1.45
Ross County
1.74
Hamilton
1.76
Hibernian is 0.82 goals better than Ross County in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 1.74).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Hibernian
For 5.5 · Against 4.0 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 14.1 · Total 26.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ross County
For 4.6 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.0 · Total 2.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 9.7 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hibernian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.7
10.7
3.3
3.1
3.4
24.3
24.2
24.4
vs Stronger (9)
11.6
9.0
13.6
4.3
6.0
3.0
22.8
24.5
21.4
vs Similar (15)
11.3
12.3
10.4
3.5
2.9
4.1
26.3
27.6
25.2
vs Weaker (26)
10.1
10.4
9.8
2.8
2.4
3.2
23.7
22.3
25.1
% over line
58%
62%
54%
38%
33%
42%
66%
67%
65%
% under line
42%
38%
46%
62%
67%
58%
34%
33%
35%
This opponent (Ross County) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ross County
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
10.7
11.1
3.3
3.3
3.3
24.3
23.3
25.1
vs Stronger (21)
11.0
10.6
11.5
2.5
2.8
2.3
22.9
22.7
23.1
vs Similar (29)
10.8
10.8
10.9
3.9
3.7
4.0
25.2
23.8
26.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
66%
62%
69%
38%
33%
42%
70%
62%
77%
% under line
34%
38%
31%
62%
67%
58%
30%
38%
23%
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Hamilton
11.2
Dundee Utd
11.2
Rangers
11.2
Ross County
10.9
Hibernian
10.7
ST Mirren
10.5
Motherwell
10.4
Kilmarnock
10.4
Celtic
10.3
Livingston
9.6
ST Johnstone
9.6
Aberdeen
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Motherwell
3.6
Dundee Utd
3.4
Kilmarnock
3.4
ST Johnstone
3.4
Rangers
3.3
Ross County
3.3
Hibernian
3.3
ST Mirren
3.2
Celtic
3.2
Hamilton
3.1
Livingston
3.0
Aberdeen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.6
Motherwell
24.9
Hamilton
24.8
ST Johnstone
24.7
Kilmarnock
24.6
Livingston
24.4
Hibernian
24.3
Ross County
24.3
ST Mirren
23.7
Dundee Utd
23.2
Rangers
23.0
Celtic
21.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hibernian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.47
0.86
0.50
0.75
0.44
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (9)
0.22
0.33
0.25
0.25
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (16)
1.25
0.38
1.25
0.62
1.25
0.12
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Ross County) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ross County
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.70
0.36
0.50
0.31
0.88
vs Stronger (13)
0.08
0.92
0.00
0.67
0.14
1.14
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.53
0.62
0.38
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hibernian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.71
0.79
0.56
0.50
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.00
1.50
1.50
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.78
0.25
1.00
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (16)
0.69
0.44
0.75
0.50
0.62
0.38
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Ross County) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ross County
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
1.17
0.21
1.14
0.25
1.19
vs Stronger (13)
0.08
1.23
0.00
1.50
0.14
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.35
1.12
0.38
0.88
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
72.2%
1.49
-
-
-
-
-
+8.9%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hibernian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martin Boyle67%
Callum Wright67%
Felix Passlack25%
Jason Kerr25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Josh Mulligan0%
Jamie McGrath0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Felix Passlack25%
Josh Mulligan25%
Ante Šuto25%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Martin Boyle0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jamie McGrath0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jamie McGrath33%
Felix Passlack25%
Josh Mulligan25%
Nathan Lowe25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Martin Boyle0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Martin Boyle33%
Jamie McGrath33%
Josh Mulligan25%
Nathan Lowe25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Felix Passlack0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Ross County · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ronan Hale31%
Jordan White16%
Kieran Phillips12%
Akil Wright11%
Noah Chilvers10%
Alex Samuel9%
Joshua Nisbet8%
Michee Efete5%
George Harmon4%
Elijah Campbell4%
Connor Randall3%
William Nightingale0%
Eamonn Brophy0%
Jack Hamilton0%
Ross Laidlaw0%
Charles Telfer0%
Scott Allardice0%
James Brown0%
Victor Loturi0%
Ryan Leak0%
Josh Reid0%
Kacper Łopata0%
Jonathan Tomkinson0%
Zachary Ashworth0%
Nohan Kenneh0%
Aidan Denholm0%
Jordan Amissah0%
Jack Grieves0%
Dylan Smith0%
George Robesten0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Connor Randall30%
Elijah Campbell21%
Kacper Łopata20%
Zachary Ashworth20%
Ryan Leak19%
James Brown19%
Victor Loturi18%
Michee Efete15%
Noah Chilvers13%
Nohan Kenneh13%
Akil Wright13%
Ronan Hale11%
George Harmon9%
Jordan White8%
Jonathan Tomkinson8%
Jack Grieves5%
Joshua Nisbet0%
Alex Samuel0%
William Nightingale0%
Eamonn Brophy0%
Jack Hamilton0%
Ross Laidlaw0%
Charles Telfer0%
Scott Allardice0%
Josh Reid0%
Kieran Phillips0%
Aidan Denholm0%
Jordan Amissah0%
Dylan Smith0%
George Robesten0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Noah Chilvers17%
Kieran Phillips12%
Zachary Ashworth10%
Jack Grieves9%
George Harmon9%
Nohan Kenneh7%
Aidan Denholm7%
Joshua Nisbet6%
Alex Samuel5%
Kacper Łopata3%
Akil Wright3%
William Nightingale0%
Eamonn Brophy0%
Jack Hamilton0%
Ross Laidlaw0%
Jordan White0%
Charles Telfer0%
Scott Allardice0%
James Brown0%
Victor Loturi0%
Michee Efete0%
Connor Randall0%
Ronan Hale0%
Ryan Leak0%
Josh Reid0%
Jonathan Tomkinson0%
Elijah Campbell0%
Jordan Amissah0%
Dylan Smith0%
George Robesten0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ronan Hale36%
Noah Chilvers10%
Michee Efete10%
Jordan White8%
Nohan Kenneh7%
Joshua Nisbet0%
Alex Samuel0%
William Nightingale0%
Eamonn Brophy0%
Jack Hamilton0%
Ross Laidlaw0%
Charles Telfer0%
Scott Allardice0%
James Brown0%
Victor Loturi0%
Akil Wright0%
Connor Randall0%
Ryan Leak0%
Josh Reid0%
Kieran Phillips0%
Kacper Łopata0%
George Harmon0%
Jonathan Tomkinson0%
Zachary Ashworth0%
Elijah Campbell0%
Aidan Denholm0%
Jordan Amissah0%
Jack Grieves0%
Dylan Smith0%
George Robesten0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Hibernian's squad is €19m more valuable than Ross County's (€20m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Hibernian's attack is €7m more valuable than Ross County's (€7m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Hibernian's midfield is €7m more valuable than Ross County's (€8m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Hibernian's defence is €4m more valuable than Ross County's (€5m vs €1m).
Scotland: Premiership 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Rangers
Celtic
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
ST Johnstone
Livingston
Motherwell
Dundee Utd
Kilmarnock