Hibernian are favoured to win, with a 53% chance of triumph, 26% for a draw and 20% for ST Mirren. The match is expected to see 2.7 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.6% probability. Hibernian, playing at home against a weaker side, average 2.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. ST Mirren, on the road against a stronger opponent, average only 0.6 goals scored and 2.6 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 91.4%, Under 4.5 cards at 81.1%, Over 19.5 fouls at 80.1%, Over 1.5 at 75.7% (miss), Over 8.5 corners at 74.5% (miss) and Under 3.5 at 72.1%. The final result was a 1-0 home win.
Results analysis
Hibernian’s 1-0 win over St Mirren extended their recent victory streak, confirming the model’s pre-match favourite of a home win at 53% probability. The outcome matched the forecast, so the model’s call was correct. The model’s suggested picks performed unevenly: Under 5.5 cards hit, as did Under 4.5 cards and Over 19.5 fouls, all with high probabilities of 91.4%, 81.1% and 80.1% respectively. However, Over 1.5 and Over 8.5 corners missed, despite 75.7% and 74.5% chances, while Under 3.5 cards succeeded at 72.1%. Overall, the model delivered a solid prediction for the result, though some ancillary selections fell short.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hibernian win✓ Hit
53.5%
Avg Implied 53.7% · @ 1.75
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied 26.0% · @ 3.61
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren win✗ Miss
20.2%
Avg Implied 20.2% · @ 4.65
Edge
+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hibernian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.17
1.50
1.50
1.44
0.88
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.40
1.33
2.33
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (10)
0.90
1.00
0.50
1.25
1.17
0.83
vs Weaker (15)
2.00
0.87
2.14
1.29
1.88
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.27
0.88
1.19
0.79
1.36
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.91
0.67
1.33
0.60
2.60
vs Similar (19)
0.95
0.89
1.00
1.10
0.89
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.7%
Under 1.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.9%
@ 2.01+2.6%
Under 2.5
50.1%
@ 1.80-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.9%
Under 3.5
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.8%
No
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
1-0 ✓
10.7%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.1%
3-0
5.7%
0-1
5.6%
1-2
5.5%
Hibernian goals ↓
ST Mirren goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
5.6%
3.2%
1.0%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.5%
1.8%
0.4%
2
10%
9.7%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
3
5.7%
5.5%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.4%
2.3%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hibernian goals (down), columns = ST Mirren goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rangers
2.68
Celtic
2.03
Hibernian
1.66
Aberdeen
1.47
Livingston
1.18
ST Mirren
1.18
Motherwell
1.18
ST Johnstone
1.18
Dundee Utd
1.16
Ross County
1.03
Kilmarnock
0.95
Hamilton
0.79
Hibernian is 0.47 points better than ST Mirren in terms of average points per game (1.66 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.42
Celtic
2.05
Hibernian
1.26
Kilmarnock
1.13
Livingston
1.11
Motherwell
1.03
ST Mirren
0.97
Aberdeen
0.95
ST Johnstone
0.95
Ross County
0.92
Hamilton
0.89
Dundee Utd
0.84
Hibernian is 0.29 goals better than ST Mirren in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rangers
0.34
Celtic
0.76
Hibernian
0.92
Aberdeen
1.00
ST Mirren
1.18
ST Johnstone
1.21
Dundee Utd
1.32
Livingston
1.42
Kilmarnock
1.42
Motherwell
1.45
Ross County
1.74
Hamilton
1.76
Hibernian is 0.26 goals better than ST Mirren in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 1.18).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Hibernian
For 5.8 · Against 4.0 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 13.3 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Mirren
For 5.2 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 13.3 · Total 25.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hibernian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.8
10.7
3.3
3.2
3.4
24.1
23.9
24.2
vs Stronger (8)
11.4
9.0
13.8
4.8
6.0
3.5
22.6
24.5
20.8
vs Similar (16)
10.9
11.4
10.4
3.6
3.1
4.1
26.1
26.9
25.2
vs Weaker (26)
10.5
10.9
10.1
2.7
2.3
3.0
23.3
21.7
24.6
% over line
58%
62%
54%
40%
38%
42%
64%
67%
62%
% under line
42%
38%
46%
60%
62%
58%
36%
33%
38%
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.4
10.5
3.3
3.6
3.0
23.5
25.6
21.3
vs Stronger (19)
10.8
10.5
11.2
2.7
3.0
2.3
21.7
24.3
18.8
vs Similar (31)
10.3
10.4
10.1
3.6
3.9
3.3
24.6
26.5
22.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
60%
64%
46%
56%
36%
64%
80%
48%
% under line
38%
40%
36%
54%
44%
64%
36%
20%
52%
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dundee Utd
11.3
Hamilton
11.3
Rangers
11.1
Hibernian
10.7
Ross County
10.7
Kilmarnock
10.6
ST Mirren
10.5
Motherwell
10.5
Celtic
10.3
ST Johnstone
9.6
Livingston
9.5
Aberdeen
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Motherwell
3.7
Dundee Utd
3.4
Kilmarnock
3.4
Rangers
3.4
ST Johnstone
3.4
Ross County
3.4
Celtic
3.3
Hibernian
3.3
ST Mirren
3.3
Hamilton
3.1
Aberdeen
3.1
Livingston
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.5
Hamilton
25.0
Motherwell
24.9
Kilmarnock
24.8
ST Johnstone
24.5
Livingston
24.4
Ross County
24.2
Hibernian
24.1
ST Mirren
23.5
Dundee Utd
22.8
Rangers
22.8
Celtic
21.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
63.2%
Under 9.5
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.8%
Under 3.5
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
66.0%
Under 21.5
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hibernian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
0.79
0.64
0.88
0.38
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.30
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.33
vs Weaker (15)
1.27
0.40
1.29
0.71
1.25
0.12
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.80
0.44
0.94
0.29
0.64
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
1.18
0.33
1.17
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (19)
0.37
0.58
0.50
0.80
0.22
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hibernian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.71
0.86
0.56
0.50
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.20
1.00
1.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.70
0.25
1.00
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (15)
0.73
0.47
0.86
0.57
0.62
0.38
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.47
0.44
0.25
0.50
0.71
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
0.73
0.33
0.17
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.32
0.50
0.30
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hibernian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martin Boyle67%
Callum Wright67%
Felix Passlack25%
Jason Kerr25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Josh Mulligan0%
Jamie McGrath0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Felix Passlack25%
Josh Mulligan25%
Ante Šuto25%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Martin Boyle0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jamie McGrath0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jamie McGrath33%
Felix Passlack25%
Josh Mulligan25%
Nathan Lowe25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Martin Boyle0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Martin Boyle33%
Jamie McGrath33%
Josh Mulligan25%
Nathan Lowe25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Felix Passlack0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
ST Mirren · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paul Nsio33%
Samuel Ramos33%
Luke Thomas0%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Eseosa Sule0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ryan Carr100%
Luke Thomas33%
Jake Young33%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Paul Nsio0%
Eseosa Sule0%
Samuel Ramos0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexander Gogić33%
Samuel Ramos33%
Luke Thomas0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Paul Nsio0%
Eseosa Sule0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Eseosa Sule67%
Luke Thomas0%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Paul Nsio0%
Samuel Ramos0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Hibernian's squad is €12m more valuable than ST Mirren's (€20m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Hibernian's attack is €6m more valuable than ST Mirren's (€7m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Hibernian's midfield is €5m more valuable than ST Mirren's (€8m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Hibernian's defence is €2m more valuable than ST Mirren's (€5m vs €3m).
Scotland: Premiership 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Rangers
Celtic
Aberdeen
ST Johnstone
Livingston
Motherwell
Dundee Utd
Ross County
Kilmarnock