Hibernian are the clear favourites, with the model picking a home win and giving the team a 57% chance of triumph, a 25% chance of a draw and an 18% chance of a ST Mirren victory. The average goal tally is 2.7, with the most likely total of 2 goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 12.2%. Hibs have been productive at home against weaker opposition, averaging 1.4 goals scored and only 0.9 conceded, while ST Mirren, playing away against stronger teams, manage just 0.4 goals and concede 2.2. The suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 90.6%, Over 19.5 fouls at 83.5%, Under 4.5 cards at 79.9%, Over 1.5 at 75.8%, Over 8.5 corners at 73.4%, Under 3.5 at 71.9% and Over 21.5 fouls at 70.8%. The recent form shows Hibernian coming off a win, while ST Mirren are off a draw.
Results analysis
The final score of 2-2 produced a surprising draw, extending Hibernian’s recent win streak while ST Mirren ended a draw. The pre-match favourite was a Home win at 57% probability, but the model’s pick proved wrong. The model’s selections were mixed: Under 5.5 cards hit at 90.6%, Over 19.5 fouls missed at 83.5%, Under 4.5 cards hit at 79.9%, Over 1.5 hit at 75.8%, Over 8.5 corners hit at 73.4%, Under 3.5 missed at 71.9%, and Over 21.5 fouls missed at 70.8%. The match delivered a 2-2 draw, defying the predicted home victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hibernian win✗ Miss
56.6%
Avg Implied 58.0% · @ 1.63
Edge
-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.4%
Avg Implied 24.8% · @ 3.81
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren win✗ Miss
18.0%
Avg Implied 17.2% · @ 5.48
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hibernian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.90
1.19
0.94
1.57
0.86
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.17
0.67
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (8)
1.50
0.62
1.00
1.00
1.80
0.40
vs Weaker (16)
1.56
0.94
1.40
0.90
1.83
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.30
0.80
1.13
1.33
1.47
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
2.33
0.50
2.50
0.40
2.20
vs Similar (21)
1.33
0.86
0.91
0.64
1.80
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.8%
Under 1.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.1%
@ 1.99+2.3%
Under 2.5
49.9%
@ 1.82-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.1%
Under 3.5
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.6%
No
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
1-0
11.1%
2-0
10.8%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
8.0%
3-0
6.3%
3-1
5.8%
0-1
5.1%
Hibernian goals ↓
ST Mirren goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
5.1%
2.8%
0.9%
0.2%
1
11%
12%
5.0%
1.5%
0.3%
2
11%
9.8%
4.4%
1.3%
0.3%
3
6.3%
5.8%
2.6%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.8%
2.5%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hibernian goals (down), columns = ST Mirren goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.45
Rangers
2.34
Heart Of Midlothian
1.61
Livingston
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.26
Motherwell
1.21
Hibernian
1.18
ST Mirren
1.16
Aberdeen
1.08
Ross County
1.08
ST Johnstone
0.92
Dundee
0.76
Hibernian is 0.03 points better than ST Mirren in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.16).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.42
Rangers
2.11
Heart Of Midlothian
1.42
Ross County
1.24
Motherwell
1.11
Aberdeen
1.08
Livingston
1.08
Hibernian
1.00
Dundee Utd
0.97
Dundee
0.89
ST Mirren
0.87
ST Johnstone
0.63
Hibernian is 0.13 goals better than ST Mirren in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.87).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.58
Rangers
0.82
Hibernian
1.11
Dundee Utd
1.16
Heart Of Midlothian
1.16
Aberdeen
1.21
Livingston
1.21
ST Mirren
1.34
ST Johnstone
1.34
Motherwell
1.61
Ross County
1.61
Dundee
1.68
Hibernian is 0.24 goals better than ST Mirren in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.34).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Hibernian
For 4.6 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 12.6 · Total 24.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Mirren
For 4.8 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 12.1 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hibernian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.6
10.1
3.1
2.8
3.4
25.3
24.7
25.9
vs Stronger (9)
11.6
9.2
13.4
3.1
3.8
2.6
24.2
24.8
23.8
vs Similar (14)
10.4
11.8
9.4
2.9
2.3
3.4
26.4
26.7
26.1
vs Weaker (27)
9.9
10.5
9.2
3.1
2.7
3.7
25.1
23.9
26.7
% over line
52%
60%
44%
32%
28%
36%
80%
76%
84%
% under line
48%
40%
56%
68%
72%
64%
20%
24%
16%
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
9.2
11.6
3.2
3.4
2.9
24.2
25.0
23.4
vs Stronger (17)
9.2
7.5
10.7
2.9
3.5
2.4
24.8
27.1
22.7
vs Similar (33)
11.1
10.1
12.2
3.3
3.4
3.2
23.9
24.0
23.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
58%
44%
72%
38%
48%
28%
72%
80%
64%
% under line
42%
56%
28%
62%
52%
72%
28%
20%
36%
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rangers
10.8
Ross County
10.7
Heart Of Midlothian
10.6
Dundee Utd
10.6
Celtic
10.5
Motherwell
10.5
ST Mirren
10.4
Dundee
10.4
Hibernian
10.4
ST Johnstone
9.5
Aberdeen
9.2
Livingston
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Motherwell
3.6
Dundee Utd
3.6
Heart Of Midlothian
3.5
ST Johnstone
3.3
Livingston
3.3
Ross County
3.3
Dundee
3.3
Rangers
3.3
ST Mirren
3.2
Hibernian
3.1
Aberdeen
2.9
Celtic
2.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.3
Heart Of Midlothian
25.8
ST Johnstone
25.7
Hibernian
25.3
Motherwell
25.1
Livingston
25.0
Ross County
24.8
Dundee
24.4
ST Mirren
24.2
Dundee Utd
23.9
Rangers
23.0
Celtic
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
61.8%
Under 9.5
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.4%
Under 3.5
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
70.8%
Under 21.5
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hibernian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.43
0.62
0.38
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.38
0.67
0.33
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (16)
0.75
0.50
0.80
0.50
0.67
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.70
0.20
0.60
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.40
1.60
vs Similar (21)
0.43
0.43
0.27
0.45
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hibernian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.47
0.56
0.56
1.07
0.36
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.25
0.33
0.67
1.20
0.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.81
0.44
0.60
0.40
1.17
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.60
0.53
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.60
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.43
0.64
0.18
1.20
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hibernian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martin Boyle67%
Callum Wright67%
Felix Passlack25%
Jason Kerr25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Josh Mulligan0%
Jamie McGrath0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Felix Passlack25%
Josh Mulligan25%
Ante Šuto25%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Martin Boyle0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jamie McGrath0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jamie McGrath33%
Felix Passlack25%
Josh Mulligan25%
Nathan Lowe25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Martin Boyle0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Martin Boyle33%
Jamie McGrath33%
Josh Mulligan25%
Nathan Lowe25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Felix Passlack0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
ST Mirren · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paul Nsio33%
Samuel Ramos33%
Luke Thomas0%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Eseosa Sule0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ryan Carr100%
Luke Thomas33%
Jake Young33%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Paul Nsio0%
Eseosa Sule0%
Samuel Ramos0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexander Gogić33%
Samuel Ramos33%
Luke Thomas0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Paul Nsio0%
Eseosa Sule0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Eseosa Sule67%
Luke Thomas0%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Paul Nsio0%
Samuel Ramos0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Hibernian's squad is €12m more valuable than ST Mirren's (€20m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Hibernian's attack is €6m more valuable than ST Mirren's (€7m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Hibernian's midfield is €5m more valuable than ST Mirren's (€8m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Hibernian's defence is €2m more valuable than ST Mirren's (€5m vs €3m).
Scotland: Premiership 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Rangers
Heart Of Midlothian
Livingston
Dundee Utd
Motherwell
Aberdeen
Ross County
ST Johnstone
Dundee