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Hibernians vs Balzan FC Result & Analysis

Date: 22/10/2023
Time: 13:00
Final 0-2
Hibernians
Hibernians
Vs
27%
27%
46%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Balzan FC
Balzan FC
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The model predicts an away win, with Balzan FC taking the lead in the odds. The expected total of 2.7 goals suggests a moderately high-scoring encounter, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.1% chance. Hibernians, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, average 1.42 goals scored and 1.75 conceded, while Balzan FC on the road averages 2.0 goals scored and only 1.1 conceded. The probabilities for the match outcome are 27% home win, 27% draw, and 46% away win. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 82.0%, Over 1.5 goals at 76.7% (hit), Under 5.5 cards at 71.2%, Under 3.5 goals at 70.9% (hit), and Under 11.5 corners at 70.2%. Hibernians are coming off a 0-2 defeat to Valletta FC, while Balzan FC arrive after a 2-1 victory over Gzira United. The match should see Balzan’s stronger away form prevail.

Results analysis

The match saw the predicted away win materialise as Balzan FC secured a 0-2 victory over Hibernians, extending their recent winning run. The model had named the away side the favourite with a 46% probability, and its call proved correct. The final score of 0-2 matched the actual result, confirming the model’s accuracy. The suggested selections also performed well: Over 1.5 goals, with a 76.7% probability, hit the mark, and Under 3.5 goals, at 70.9%, also hit. The most likely scoreline of 1-1, with a 13.1% chance, did not materialise, but the overall predictions were largely fulfilled.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hibernians win✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC win✓ Hit
45.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

HiberniansHibernians

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-513L05L41W11D52W22D40W32W02L01LH·MAR11/03A·BIR02/04A·PIE08/04H·SIR15/04A·FLO21/04H·BAL01/05A·GZI16/09H·SAN23/09A·FLO26/09H·BIR30/09
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.431.381.622.211.21
vs Stronger (5)1.401.801.002.001.671.67
vs Similar (21)1.761.521.421.752.221.22
vs Weaker (4)2.250.501.500.503.000.50
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Balzan FCBalzan FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W22D41W03L02L00D01L10W10W03LH·BIR21/04A·HIB01/05A·NK 13/07H·NK 18/07A·NEM26/07H·NEM01/08A·HAM16/09H·GZI23/09A·SAN26/09H·FLO01/10
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.301.001.571.501.06
vs Stronger (8)0.381.500.752.000.001.00
vs Similar (20)1.551.251.101.402.001.10
vs Weaker (2)2.001.00--2.001.00
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.7%
Under 1.5
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.2%
Under 2.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.1%
Under 3.5
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.4%
No
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-2
9.3%
0-1
9.1%
0-2 ✓
8.1%
0-0
7.8%
2-1
6.8%
1-0
6.4%
2-2
5.4%
Hibernians goals ↓
Balzan FC goals →
01234
07.8%9.1%8.1%4.3%1.7%
16.4%13%9.3%4.9%1.9%
24.3%6.8%5.4%2.8%1.1%
31.7%2.6%2.1%1.1%0.4%
40.5%0.8%0.6%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hibernians goals (down), columns = Balzan FC goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.38
Floriana
2.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.92
Marsaxlokk
1.65
Birkirkara
1.38
Hibernians
1.35
Naxxar Lions
1.35
Balzan FC
1.31
Gzira United
1.27
Mosta
1.19
Santa Lucía
1.15
Valletta FC
1.04
Sirens
0.62
Gudja United
0.23
Hibernians is 0.04 points better than Balzan FC in terms of average points per game (1.35 vs 1.31).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.35
Floriana
2.04
Marsaxlokk
1.54
Gzira United
1.46
Sliema Wanderers
1.31
Naxxar Lions
1.23
Hibernians
1.12
Birkirkara
1.08
Valletta FC
1.00
Balzan FC
1.00
Santa Lucía
0.96
Mosta
0.73
Sirens
0.65
Gudja United
0.54
Hibernians is 0.12 goals better than Balzan FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sliema Wanderers
0.46
Hamrun Spartans
0.62
Floriana
0.73
Marsaxlokk
0.88
Birkirkara
1.04
Hibernians
1.08
Balzan FC
1.08
Valletta FC
1.19
Mosta
1.23
Gzira United
1.27
Naxxar Lions
1.35
Santa Lucía
1.58
Sirens
1.92
Gudja United
2.58
Hibernians and Balzan FC are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.08).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

HiberniansHibernians

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L04L21W10W21W01L20W20W01L00DH·MAR11/03A·BIR02/04A·PIE08/04H·SIR15/04A·FLO21/04H·BAL01/05A·GZI16/09H·SAN23/09A·FLO26/09H·BIR30/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.570.620.501.070.64
vs Stronger (5)0.600.800.501.000.670.67
vs Similar (21)0.860.570.670.421.110.78
vs Weaker (4)1.000.250.500.501.500.00
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Balzan FCBalzan FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W20W01L00D00D00D00D10W00DH·BIR21/04A·HIB01/05A·NK 13/07H·NK 18/07A·NEM26/07H·NEM01/08A·HAM16/09H·GZI23/09A·SAN26/09H·FLO01/10
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.470.570.790.620.19
vs Stronger (8)0.380.380.750.750.000.00
vs Similar (20)0.650.500.500.800.800.20
vs Weaker (2)1.000.50--1.000.50
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

HiberniansHibernians

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L20W01L31W21W20W12L01L01LH·MAR11/03A·BIR02/04A·PIE08/04H·SIR15/04A·FLO21/04H·BAL01/05A·GZI16/09H·SAN23/09A·FLO26/09H·BIR30/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.870.751.121.140.57
vs Stronger (5)0.801.000.501.001.001.00
vs Similar (21)0.900.950.751.331.110.44
vs Weaker (4)1.250.251.000.001.500.50
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Balzan FCBalzan FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W12L21W02L02L00D01L10W00D03LH·BIR21/04A·HIB01/05A·NK 13/07H·NK 18/07A·NEM26/07H·NEM01/08A·HAM16/09H·GZI23/09A·SAN26/09H·FLO01/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.830.430.790.880.88
vs Stronger (8)0.001.120.001.250.001.00
vs Similar (20)0.900.750.600.601.200.90
vs Weaker (2)1.000.50--1.000.50
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards82.0%--------
Over 1.576.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards71.2%--------
Under 3.570.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners70.2%--------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
NL (16)
€1m
GU (1)
€0m
Hibernians's squad is €4m more valuable than Balzan FC's (€5m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
Hibernians's attack is €1m more valuable than Balzan FC's (€2m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
Hibernians and Balzan FC have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (0)
€0m
Hibernians's defence is €2m more valuable than Balzan FC's (€3m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
HIB wins
1
Draws
1
BF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Hibernians vs Balzan FC · H/A from HIB
DateH/AGameScore
01/05/23HHIB Vs Balzan FC2-2
05/02/23HHIB Vs Balzan FC1-2
02/10/22ABalzan FC Vs HIB0-2

HiberniansHibernians

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/09/23HHIB Vs Birkirkara0-1
26/09/23AFloriana Vs HIB2-0
23/09/23HHIB Vs Santa Lucía3-2
16/09/23AGzira United Vs HIB0-4
01/05/23HHIB Vs Balzan FC2-2
21/04/23AFloriana Vs HIB2-5
15/04/23HHIB Vs Sirens1-1
08/04/23APietà Hotspurs Vs HIB1-4
02/04/23ABirkirkara Vs HIB5-0
11/03/23HHIB Vs Marsaxlokk1-3

Balzan FCBalzan FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/10/23HBF Vs Floriana0-3
26/09/23ASanta Lucía Vs BF0-1
23/09/23HBF Vs Gzira United1-0
16/09/23AHamrun Spartans Vs BF1-0
01/08/23HBF Vs Neman0-0
26/07/23ANeman Vs BF2-0
18/07/23HBF Vs NK Domzale0-3
13/07/23ANK Domzale Vs BF1-4
01/05/23AHibernians Vs BF2-2
21/04/23HBF Vs Birkirkara2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Hibernians
Hibernians
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLL1.59
HomeLDDWL1.47
AwayLWWWL1.72
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%42%50%
AVG goals3.083.003.17
Over 1.5 %84%79%89%
Over 2.5 %54%63%44%
Over 3.5 %41%42%39%
Scored1.621.371.89
Conceded1.461.631.28
BTTS57%68%44%
Clean Sheet24%21%28%
Corners6.836.337.33
Cards5.506.005.00
Balzan FC
Balzan FC
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWWL1.63
HomeWLDWL1.24
AwayDWLLW2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %49%35%61%
AVG goals2.542.532.56
Over 1.5 %66%71%61%
Over 2.5 %54%59%50%
Over 3.5 %34%35%33%
Scored1.291.001.56
Conceded1.261.531.00
BTTS46%41%50%
Clean Sheet29%24%33%
Corners15.0015.5014.00
Cards6.677.505.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans2662
73%
2.4
6116+45
3.0
81%
58%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1312.30.6
-
2FlorianaFloriana2657
69%
2.2
5319+34
2.8
85%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.00.7
-
3Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers2650
54%
1.9
3412+22
1.8
50%
23%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.30.5
-
4MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk2643
46%
1.7
4023+17
2.4
69%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.50.9
-
5BirkirkaraBirkirkara2636
35%
1.4
2827+1
2.1
77%
31%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.11.0
-
6HiberniansHibernians2635
35%
1.3
2928+1
2.2
73%
35%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.11.1
-
7Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions2635
35%
1.3
3235-3
2.6
77%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.3
-
8Balzan FCBalzan FC2634
31%
1.3
2628-2
2.1
58%
31%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.1
-
9Gzira UnitedGzira United2633
35%
1.3
3833+5
2.7
73%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.3
-
10MostaMosta2631
27%
1.2
1932-13
2.0
65%
35%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.71.2
-
11Santa LucíaSanta Lucía2630
31%
1.2
2541-16
2.5
73%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12Valletta FCValletta FC2627
23%
1.0
2631-5
2.2
73%
27%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.01.2
-
13SirensSirens2616
12%
0.6
1750-33
2.6
85%
58%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.9
-
14Gudja UnitedGudja United266
0%
0.2
1467-53
3.1
85%
58%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.6
-
Malta: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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