The model predicts an away win, with Balzan FC taking the lead in the odds. The expected total of 2.7 goals suggests a moderately high-scoring encounter, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.1% chance. Hibernians, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, average 1.42 goals scored and 1.75 conceded, while Balzan FC on the road averages 2.0 goals scored and only 1.1 conceded. The probabilities for the match outcome are 27% home win, 27% draw, and 46% away win. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 82.0%, Over 1.5 goals at 76.7% (hit), Under 5.5 cards at 71.2%, Under 3.5 goals at 70.9% (hit), and Under 11.5 corners at 70.2%. Hibernians are coming off a 0-2 defeat to Valletta FC, while Balzan FC arrive after a 2-1 victory over Gzira United. The match should see Balzan’s stronger away form prevail.
Results analysis
The match saw the predicted away win materialise as Balzan FC secured a 0-2 victory over Hibernians, extending their recent winning run. The model had named the away side the favourite with a 46% probability, and its call proved correct. The final score of 0-2 matched the actual result, confirming the model’s accuracy. The suggested selections also performed well: Over 1.5 goals, with a 76.7% probability, hit the mark, and Under 3.5 goals, at 70.9%, also hit. The most likely scoreline of 1-1, with a 13.1% chance, did not materialise, but the overall predictions were largely fulfilled.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hibernians win✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC win✓ Hit
45.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hibernians
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.43
1.38
1.62
2.21
1.21
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
1.80
1.00
2.00
1.67
1.67
vs Similar (21)
1.76
1.52
1.42
1.75
2.22
1.22
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
0.50
1.50
0.50
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Balzan FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.30
1.00
1.57
1.50
1.06
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.50
0.75
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.55
1.25
1.10
1.40
2.00
1.10
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.7%
Under 1.5
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.2%
Under 2.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.1%
Under 3.5
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.4%
No
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-2
9.3%
0-1
9.1%
0-2 ✓
8.1%
0-0
7.8%
2-1
6.8%
1-0
6.4%
2-2
5.4%
Hibernians goals ↓
Balzan FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
9.1%
8.1%
4.3%
1.7%
1
6.4%
13%
9.3%
4.9%
1.9%
2
4.3%
6.8%
5.4%
2.8%
1.1%
3
1.7%
2.6%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hibernians goals (down), columns = Balzan FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.38
Floriana
2.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.92
Marsaxlokk
1.65
Birkirkara
1.38
Hibernians
1.35
Naxxar Lions
1.35
Balzan FC
1.31
Gzira United
1.27
Mosta
1.19
Santa Lucía
1.15
Valletta FC
1.04
Sirens
0.62
Gudja United
0.23
Hibernians is 0.04 points better than Balzan FC in terms of average points per game (1.35 vs 1.31).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.35
Floriana
2.04
Marsaxlokk
1.54
Gzira United
1.46
Sliema Wanderers
1.31
Naxxar Lions
1.23
Hibernians
1.12
Birkirkara
1.08
Valletta FC
1.00
Balzan FC
1.00
Santa Lucía
0.96
Mosta
0.73
Sirens
0.65
Gudja United
0.54
Hibernians is 0.12 goals better than Balzan FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sliema Wanderers
0.46
Hamrun Spartans
0.62
Floriana
0.73
Marsaxlokk
0.88
Birkirkara
1.04
Hibernians
1.08
Balzan FC
1.08
Valletta FC
1.19
Mosta
1.23
Gzira United
1.27
Naxxar Lions
1.35
Santa Lucía
1.58
Sirens
1.92
Gudja United
2.58
Hibernians and Balzan FC are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hibernians
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
0.62
0.50
1.07
0.64
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.57
0.67
0.42
1.11
0.78
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.25
0.50
0.50
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Balzan FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.47
0.57
0.79
0.62
0.19
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.38
0.75
0.75
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.50
0.50
0.80
0.80
0.20
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hibernians
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.87
0.75
1.12
1.14
0.57
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.95
0.75
1.33
1.11
0.44
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Balzan FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.43
0.79
0.88
0.88
vs Stronger (8)
0.00
1.12
0.00
1.25
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.90
0.75
0.60
0.60
1.20
0.90
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
NL (16)
€1m
GU (1)
€0m
Hibernians's squad is €4m more valuable than Balzan FC's (€5m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
Hibernians's attack is €1m more valuable than Balzan FC's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
Hibernians and Balzan FC have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (0)
€0m
Hibernians's defence is €2m more valuable than Balzan FC's (€3m vs €1m).
Malta: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →