The contest between Hibernians and Birkirkara is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The odds are 34% for a home victory, 27% for a draw and 40% for a Birkirkara win, making the latter the most likely outcome. On average the match should see 2.9 goals, with the most probable total being two goals at 24%. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a 12.5% chance. Hibernians, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 1.55 goals scored and 1.82 conceded, while Birkirkara, on the road, average 1.46 scored and only 1.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 87.2%, Over 1.5 goals at 80.3% (miss), Over 3.5 cards at 72.9% and Under 11.5 corners at 72.6%. The match remains finely balanced, with both sides showing recent form that could swing the result.
Results analysis
Hibernians entered the match on a shaky run, having drawn their last game and finishing the previous five as DLWLW, while Birkirkara, after a defeat, were coming off a LWWDD streak. The model had tipped an away win with a 40% chance, and that call proved right as Birkirkara edged Hibernians 0-1. The pre-match favourite, the model’s selection, was therefore correct. The single suggested pick was Over 1.5 goals, with an 80.3% probability, but it missed as the match produced only one goal. The final score confirmed the model’s prediction and highlighted a tough day for the selections.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hibernians winâś— Miss
33.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara winâś“ Hit
39.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Hibernians
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.43
1.47
1.67
2.13
1.20
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
1.80
1.00
2.00
1.67
1.67
vs Similar (21)
1.81
1.52
1.55
1.82
2.10
1.20
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
0.50
1.50
0.50
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Birkirkara
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.87
2.00
0.73
1.47
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.58
0.88
1.69
0.77
1.46
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
2.75
0.75
4.00
0.50
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.3%
Under 1.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.3%
Under 2.5
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.9%
Under 3.5
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.3%
No
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
8.0%
0-1 âś“
7.0%
0-0
6.4%
1-0
6.3%
0-2
6.3%
2-2
6.1%
Hibernians goals ↓
Birkirkara goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
7.0%
6.3%
3.2%
1.2%
1
6.3%
13%
8.8%
4.5%
1.7%
2
5.2%
8.0%
6.1%
3.1%
1.2%
3
2.4%
3.7%
2.9%
1.5%
0.6%
4
0.8%
1.3%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hibernians goals (down), columns = Birkirkara goals (across).
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.38
Floriana
2.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.92
Marsaxlokk
1.65
Birkirkara
1.38
Hibernians
1.35
Naxxar Lions
1.35
Balzan FC
1.31
Gzira United
1.27
Mosta
1.19
Santa LucĂa
1.15
Valletta FC
1.04
Sirens
0.62
Gudja United
0.23
Hibernians is 0.04 points worse than Birkirkara in terms of average points per game (1.35 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.35
Floriana
2.04
Marsaxlokk
1.54
Gzira United
1.46
Sliema Wanderers
1.31
Naxxar Lions
1.23
Hibernians
1.12
Birkirkara
1.08
Balzan FC
1.00
Valletta FC
1.00
Santa LucĂa
0.96
Mosta
0.73
Sirens
0.65
Gudja United
0.54
Hibernians is 0.04 goals better than Birkirkara in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sliema Wanderers
0.46
Hamrun Spartans
0.62
Floriana
0.73
Marsaxlokk
0.88
Birkirkara
1.04
Balzan FC
1.08
Hibernians
1.08
Valletta FC
1.19
Mosta
1.23
Gzira United
1.27
Naxxar Lions
1.35
Santa LucĂa
1.58
Sirens
1.92
Gudja United
2.58
Hibernians is 0.04 goals worse than Birkirkara in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.04).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hibernians
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
0.67
0.53
1.00
0.60
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.57
0.73
0.45
1.00
0.70
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.25
0.50
0.50
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Birkirkara
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.33
1.27
0.27
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.31
1.00
0.31
0.62
0.31
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.50
3.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hibernians
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.87
0.80
1.13
1.13
0.60
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.95
0.95
0.82
1.36
1.10
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Birkirkara
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
0.73
0.47
0.87
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.77
0.58
0.69
0.46
0.85
0.69
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Over 3.5 cards
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
NL (16)
€1m
GU (1)
€0m
Hibernians's squad is €3m more valuable than Birkirkara's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
Hibernians and Birkirkara have a similar attack value (both €2m).
đź§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
Hibernians and Birkirkara have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (0)
€0m
Hibernians's defence is €2m more valuable than Birkirkara's (€3m vs €1m).
Malta: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →