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Hibernians vs Birkirkara Result & Analysis

Date: 30/09/2023
Time: 13:00
Final 0-1
Hibernians
Hibernians
Vs
34%
27%
40%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Birkirkara
Birkirkara
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The contest between Hibernians and Birkirkara is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The odds are 34% for a home victory, 27% for a draw and 40% for a Birkirkara win, making the latter the most likely outcome. On average the match should see 2.9 goals, with the most probable total being two goals at 24%. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a 12.5% chance. Hibernians, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 1.55 goals scored and 1.82 conceded, while Birkirkara, on the road, average 1.46 scored and only 1.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 87.2%, Over 1.5 goals at 80.3% (miss), Over 3.5 cards at 72.9% and Under 11.5 corners at 72.6%. The match remains finely balanced, with both sides showing recent form that could swing the result.

Results analysis

Hibernians entered the match on a shaky run, having drawn their last game and finishing the previous five as DLWLW, while Birkirkara, after a defeat, were coming off a LWWDD streak. The model had tipped an away win with a 40% chance, and that call proved right as Birkirkara edged Hibernians 0-1. The pre-match favourite, the model’s selection, was therefore correct. The single suggested pick was Over 1.5 goals, with an 80.3% probability, but it missed as the match produced only one goal. The final score confirmed the model’s prediction and highlighted a tough day for the selections.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hibernians winâś— Miss
33.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara winâś“ Hit
39.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

HiberniansHibernians

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-541W13L05L41W11D52W22D40W32W02LA·GUD05/03H·MAR11/03A·BIR02/04A·PIE08/04H·SIR15/04A·FLO21/04H·BAL01/05A·GZI16/09H·SAN23/09A·FLO26/09
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.801.431.471.672.131.20
vs Stronger (5)1.401.801.002.001.671.67
vs Similar (21)1.811.521.551.822.101.20
vs Weaker (4)2.250.501.500.503.000.50
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D50W31W32W12L11D12L10W02L11DA·MOS11/03H·HIB02/04A·GZI08/04H·PIE14/04A·BAL21/04A·MAR13/07H·MAR20/07H·SLI17/09A·FLO23/09H·VAL27/09
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.730.872.000.731.471.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.580.881.690.771.461.00
vs Weaker (4)2.750.754.000.501.501.00
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%316%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.3%
Under 1.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.3%
Under 2.5
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.9%
Under 3.5
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.3%
No
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
8.0%
0-1 âś“
7.0%
0-0
6.4%
1-0
6.3%
0-2
6.3%
2-2
6.1%
Hibernians goals ↓
Birkirkara goals →
01234
06.4%7.0%6.3%3.2%1.2%
16.3%13%8.8%4.5%1.7%
25.2%8.0%6.1%3.1%1.2%
32.4%3.7%2.9%1.5%0.6%
40.8%1.3%1.0%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hibernians goals (down), columns = Birkirkara goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.38
Floriana
2.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.92
Marsaxlokk
1.65
Birkirkara
1.38
Hibernians
1.35
Naxxar Lions
1.35
Balzan FC
1.31
Gzira United
1.27
Mosta
1.19
Santa LucĂ­a
1.15
Valletta FC
1.04
Sirens
0.62
Gudja United
0.23
Hibernians is 0.04 points worse than Birkirkara in terms of average points per game (1.35 vs 1.38).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.35
Floriana
2.04
Marsaxlokk
1.54
Gzira United
1.46
Sliema Wanderers
1.31
Naxxar Lions
1.23
Hibernians
1.12
Birkirkara
1.08
Balzan FC
1.00
Valletta FC
1.00
Santa LucĂ­a
0.96
Mosta
0.73
Sirens
0.65
Gudja United
0.54
Hibernians is 0.04 goals better than Birkirkara in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.08).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sliema Wanderers
0.46
Hamrun Spartans
0.62
Floriana
0.73
Marsaxlokk
0.88
Birkirkara
1.04
Balzan FC
1.08
Hibernians
1.08
Valletta FC
1.19
Mosta
1.23
Gzira United
1.27
Naxxar Lions
1.35
Santa LucĂ­a
1.58
Sirens
1.92
Gudja United
2.58
Hibernians is 0.04 goals worse than Birkirkara in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.04).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

HiberniansHibernians

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W02L04L21W10W21W01L20W20W01LA·GUD05/03H·MAR11/03A·BIR02/04A·PIE08/04H·SIR15/04A·FLO21/04H·BAL01/05A·GZI16/09H·SAN23/09A·FLO26/09
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.570.670.531.000.60
vs Stronger (5)0.600.800.501.000.670.67
vs Similar (21)0.860.570.730.451.000.70
vs Weaker (4)1.000.250.500.501.500.00
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D40W10W20W11D10W10W00D00D10WA·MOS11/03H·HIB02/04A·GZI08/04H·PIE14/04A·BAL21/04A·MAR13/07H·MAR20/07H·SLI17/09A·FLO23/09H·VAL27/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.331.270.270.600.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.810.311.000.310.620.31
vs Weaker (4)1.750.503.000.000.501.00
Clean sheet %70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

HiberniansHibernians

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W11D01L20W01L31W21W20W12L01LA·GUD05/03H·MAR11/03A·BIR02/04A·PIE08/04H·SIR15/04A·FLO21/04H·BAL01/05A·GZI16/09H·SAN23/09A·FLO26/09
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.870.801.131.130.60
vs Stronger (5)0.801.000.501.001.001.00
vs Similar (21)0.950.950.821.361.100.50
vs Weaker (4)1.250.251.000.001.500.50
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W21W12L01L01L02L10W02L01LA·MOS11/03H·HIB02/04A·GZI08/04H·PIE14/04A·BAL21/04A·MAR13/07H·MAR20/07H·SLI17/09A·FLO23/09H·VAL27/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.530.730.470.870.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.770.580.690.460.850.69
vs Weaker (4)1.000.251.000.501.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards87.2%--------
Over 1.580.3%-------âś— Miss
Over 3.5 cards72.9%--------
Under 11.5 corners72.6%--------

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
NL (16)
€1m
GU (1)
€0m
Hibernians's squad is €3m more valuable than Birkirkara's (€5m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
Hibernians and Birkirkara have a similar attack value (both €2m).

đź§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
Hibernians and Birkirkara have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (0)
€0m
Hibernians's defence is €2m more valuable than Birkirkara's (€3m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
HIB wins
1
Draws
1
BIR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Hibernians vs Birkirkara · H/A from HIB
DateH/AGameScore
02/04/23ABirkirkara Vs HIB5-0
05/11/22HHIB Vs Birkirkara1-1

HiberniansHibernians

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/09/23AFloriana Vs HIB2-0
23/09/23HHIB Vs Santa LucĂ­a3-2
16/09/23AGzira United Vs HIB0-4
01/05/23HHIB Vs Balzan FC2-2
21/04/23AFloriana Vs HIB2-5
15/04/23HHIB Vs Sirens1-1
08/04/23APietĂ  Hotspurs Vs HIB1-4
02/04/23ABirkirkara Vs HIB5-0
11/03/23HHIB Vs Marsaxlokk1-3
05/03/23AGudja United Vs HIB1-4

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/09/23HBIR Vs Valletta FC1-1
23/09/23AFloriana Vs BIR2-0
17/09/23HBIR Vs Sliema Wanderers1-0
20/07/23HBIR Vs Maribor1-2
13/07/23AMaribor Vs BIR1-1
21/04/23ABalzan FC Vs BIR2-1
14/04/23HBIR Vs PietĂ  Hotspurs3-2
08/04/23AGzira United Vs BIR1-3
02/04/23HBIR Vs Hibernians5-0
11/03/23AMosta Vs BIR1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Hibernians
Hibernians
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWL1.64
HomeWLDDW1.56
AwayLWWWL1.72
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %47%44%50%
AVG goals3.143.113.17
Over 1.5 %86%83%89%
Over 2.5 %56%67%44%
Over 3.5 %42%44%39%
Scored1.671.441.89
Conceded1.471.671.28
BTTS58%72%44%
Clean Sheet25%22%28%
Corners6.836.337.33
Cards5.506.005.00
Birkirkara
Birkirkara
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLD1.77
HomeWWLWD2.12
AwayDWLDL1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%62%33%
AVG goals2.582.692.47
Over 1.5 %81%81%80%
Over 2.5 %45%50%40%
Over 3.5 %23%25%20%
Scored1.742.001.47
Conceded0.840.691.00
BTTS58%50%67%
Clean Sheet32%50%13%
Corners10.509.0012.00
Cards8.506.0011.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans2662
73%
2.4
6116+45
3.0
81%
58%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1312.30.6
-
2FlorianaFloriana2657
69%
2.2
5319+34
2.8
85%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.00.7
-
3Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers2650
54%
1.9
3412+22
1.8
50%
23%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.30.5
-
4MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk2643
46%
1.7
4023+17
2.4
69%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.50.9
-
5BirkirkaraBirkirkara2636
35%
1.4
2827+1
2.1
77%
31%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.11.0
-
6HiberniansHibernians2635
35%
1.3
2928+1
2.2
73%
35%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.11.1
-
7Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions2635
35%
1.3
3235-3
2.6
77%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.3
-
8Balzan FCBalzan FC2634
31%
1.3
2628-2
2.1
58%
31%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.1
-
9Gzira UnitedGzira United2633
35%
1.3
3833+5
2.7
73%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.3
-
10MostaMosta2631
27%
1.2
1932-13
2.0
65%
35%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.71.2
-
11Santa LucĂ­aSanta LucĂ­a2630
31%
1.2
2541-16
2.5
73%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12Valletta FCValletta FC2627
23%
1.0
2631-5
2.2
73%
27%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.01.2
-
13SirensSirens2616
12%
0.6
1750-33
2.6
85%
58%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.9
-
14Gudja UnitedGudja United266
0%
0.2
1467-53
3.1
85%
58%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.6
-
Malta: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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