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Hibernians vs Marsaxlokk Result & Analysis

Date: 27/04/2024
Time: 14:15
Final 0-2
Hibernians
Hibernians
Vs
21%
27%
52%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hibernians win✗ Miss
21.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk win✓ Hit
51.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

HiberniansHibernians

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W02L11D00D02L30W21W00D22D13LA·SAN04/02H·FLO10/02A·BIR17/02A·BAL24/02H·NAX02/03A·GUD10/03H·SIR16/03A·SLI07/04H·VAL14/04A·MOS21/04
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.301.071.531.671.07
vs Stronger (6)1.001.500.331.671.671.33
vs Similar (22)1.411.361.271.641.551.09
vs Weaker (2)2.000.001.000.003.000.00
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W11D12L20W12L00D21W11D30W10WH·GUD03/02A·SIR11/02H·SLI17/02A·VAL25/02H·MOS03/03H·BIR09/03A·HAM16/03H·GZI06/04A·SAN12/04H·FLO20/04
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.171.431.291.691.06
vs Stronger (7)1.141.710.752.001.671.33
vs Similar (21)1.711.001.671.001.751.00
vs Weaker (2)1.501.002.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.4%
Under 1.5
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.1%
Under 2.5
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.4%
Under 3.5
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.1%
No
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
0-1
10.9%
0-2 ✓
9.8%
1-2
9.6%
0-0
8.6%
1-0
6.0%
2-1
5.7%
0-3
5.3%
Hibernians goals ↓
Marsaxlokk goals →
01234
08.6%11%9.8%5.3%2.2%
16.0%13%9.6%5.2%2.1%
23.5%5.7%4.6%2.5%1.0%
31.1%1.9%1.5%0.8%0.3%
40.3%0.4%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hibernians goals (down), columns = Marsaxlokk goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.38
Floriana
2.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.92
Marsaxlokk
1.65
Birkirkara
1.38
Hibernians
1.35
Naxxar Lions
1.35
Balzan FC
1.31
Gzira United
1.27
Mosta
1.19
Santa Lucía
1.15
Valletta FC
1.04
Sirens
0.62
Gudja United
0.23
Hibernians is 0.31 points worse than Marsaxlokk in terms of average points per game (1.35 vs 1.65).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.35
Floriana
2.04
Marsaxlokk
1.54
Gzira United
1.46
Sliema Wanderers
1.31
Naxxar Lions
1.23
Hibernians
1.12
Birkirkara
1.08
Balzan FC
1.00
Valletta FC
1.00
Santa Lucía
0.96
Mosta
0.73
Sirens
0.65
Gudja United
0.54
Hibernians is 0.42 goals worse than Marsaxlokk in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.54).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sliema Wanderers
0.46
Hamrun Spartans
0.62
Floriana
0.73
Marsaxlokk
0.88
Birkirkara
1.04
Balzan FC
1.08
Hibernians
1.08
Valletta FC
1.19
Mosta
1.23
Gzira United
1.27
Naxxar Lions
1.35
Santa Lucía
1.58
Sirens
1.92
Gudja United
2.58
Hibernians is 0.19 goals worse than Marsaxlokk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 0.88).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

HiberniansHibernians

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L00D00D00D30W21W00D01L11DA·SAN04/02H·FLO10/02A·BIR17/02A·BAL24/02H·NAX02/03A·GUD10/03H·SIR16/03A·SLI07/04H·VAL14/04A·MOS21/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.600.470.601.000.60
vs Stronger (6)0.330.670.000.670.670.67
vs Similar (22)0.770.640.640.640.910.64
vs Weaker (2)1.500.000.000.003.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W11D20W11D00D00D01L00D00DH·GUD03/02A·SIR11/02H·SLI17/02A·VAL25/02H·MOS03/03H·BIR09/03A·HAM16/03H·GZI06/04A·SAN12/04H·FLO20/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.530.790.640.750.44
vs Stronger (7)0.290.860.251.500.330.00
vs Similar (21)0.900.431.000.330.830.50
vs Weaker (2)1.000.501.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

HiberniansHibernians

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L11D00D02L00D00D00D21W02LA·SAN04/02H·FLO10/02A·BIR17/02A·BAL24/02H·NAX02/03A·GUD10/03H·SIR16/03A·SLI07/04H·VAL14/04A·MOS21/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.700.600.930.670.47
vs Stronger (6)0.670.830.331.001.000.67
vs Similar (22)0.640.730.641.000.640.45
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L01L00D01L00D21W10W30W10WH·GUD03/02A·SIR11/02H·SLI17/02A·VAL25/02H·MOS03/03H·BIR09/03A·HAM16/03H·GZI06/04A·SAN12/04H·FLO20/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.630.640.640.940.62
vs Stronger (7)0.860.860.500.501.331.33
vs Similar (21)0.810.570.670.670.920.50
vs Weaker (2)0.500.501.001.000.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.573.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
NL (16)
€1m
GU (1)
€0m
Hibernians's squad is €1m more valuable than Marsaxlokk's (€5m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
Hibernians and Marsaxlokk have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
Hibernians's midfield is €1m less valuable than Marsaxlokk's (€1m vs €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (0)
€0m
Hibernians's defence is €2m more valuable than Marsaxlokk's (€3m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
HIB wins
2
Draws
1
MAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Hibernians vs Marsaxlokk · H/A from HIB
DateH/AGameScore
07/01/24AMarsaxlokk Vs HIB1-1
11/03/23HHIB Vs Marsaxlokk1-3
30/10/22AMarsaxlokk Vs HIB1-1

HiberniansHibernians

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/04/24AMosta Vs HIB3-1
14/04/24HHIB Vs Valletta FC2-2
07/04/24ASliema Wanderers Vs HIB0-0
16/03/24HHIB Vs Sirens2-1
10/03/24AGudja United Vs HIB0-3
02/03/24HHIB Vs Naxxar Lions0-2
24/02/24ABalzan FC Vs HIB0-0
17/02/24ABirkirkara Vs HIB1-1
10/02/24HHIB Vs Floriana0-2
04/02/24ASanta Lucía Vs HIB0-2

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/04/24HMAR Vs Floriana1-0
12/04/24ASanta Lucía Vs MAR0-3
06/04/24HMAR Vs Gzira United1-1
16/03/24AHamrun Spartans Vs MAR1-2
09/03/24HMAR Vs Birkirkara0-0
03/03/24HMAR Vs Mosta1-2
25/02/24AValletta FC Vs MAR0-2
17/02/24HMAR Vs Sliema Wanderers1-2
11/02/24ASirens Vs MAR1-1
03/02/24HMAR Vs Gudja United2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Hibernians
Hibernians
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDDL1.60
HomeWLLWD1.35
AwayDDWDL1.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%38%54%
AVG goals2.742.732.75
Over 1.5 %78%77%79%
Over 2.5 %48%54%42%
Over 3.5 %32%31%33%
Scored1.481.191.79
Conceded1.261.540.96
BTTS48%58%38%
Clean Sheet32%19%46%
Corners---
Cards---
Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDWW1.30
HomeLLDDW1.00
AwayDDWWW1.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%24%40%
AVG goals2.522.682.36
Over 1.5 %74%76%72%
Over 2.5 %48%56%40%
Over 3.5 %20%20%20%
Scored1.321.201.44
Conceded1.201.480.92
BTTS62%68%56%
Clean Sheet28%16%40%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans2662
73%
2.4
6116+45
3.0
81%
58%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1312.30.6
-
2FlorianaFloriana2657
69%
2.2
5319+34
2.8
85%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.00.7
-
3Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers2650
54%
1.9
3412+22
1.8
50%
23%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.30.5
-
4MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk2643
46%
1.7
4023+17
2.4
69%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.50.9
-
5BirkirkaraBirkirkara2636
35%
1.4
2827+1
2.1
77%
31%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.11.0
-
6HiberniansHibernians2635
35%
1.3
2928+1
2.2
73%
35%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.11.1
-
7Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions2635
35%
1.3
3235-3
2.6
77%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.3
-
8Balzan FCBalzan FC2634
31%
1.3
2628-2
2.1
58%
31%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.1
-
9Gzira UnitedGzira United2633
35%
1.3
3833+5
2.7
73%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.3
-
10MostaMosta2631
27%
1.2
1932-13
2.0
65%
35%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.71.2
-
11Santa LucíaSanta Lucía2630
31%
1.2
2541-16
2.5
73%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12Valletta FCValletta FC2627
23%
1.0
2631-5
2.2
73%
27%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.01.2
-
13SirensSirens2616
12%
0.6
1750-33
2.6
85%
58%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.9
-
14Gudja UnitedGudja United266
0%
0.2
1467-53
3.1
85%
58%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.6
-
Malta: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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