The model projects a high-scoring encounter, with an expected 5.6 goals and a 48% chance of six or more. The most likely scoreline is 3-2 for Hiiumaa, a 5.9% probability that the home side will edge the visitors. Hiiumaa’s home form shows they average four goals scored and one conceded against similar opposition, while Nõmme United, on the road, averages 3.33 goals scored and 0.89 conceded. The favored result is a home win, with a 60% probability, a draw at 16%, and an away win at 24%. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 (97.8%), Home over 0.5 goals (96.5%), Over 2.5 (91.6%), Away over 0.5 goals (89.2%), Home +2 handicap (87.3%), BTTS Yes (86.3%), Home over 1.5 goals (84.7%) and Home or Away (83.8%). The recent form notes that Hiiumaa is coming off a defeat to Nõmme United, while the visitors are fresh from a win over Vaprus.
Results analysis
Hiiumaa finished 0-2 against Nõmme United (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 60% home win, 16% draw and 24% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (98%), Away over 0.5 goals (89%), Home or Away (84%). Missed: Home over 0.5 goals (96%), Over 2.5 (92%), Home +2 handicap (87%), BTTS Yes (86%), Home over 1.5 goals (85%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hiiumaa win✗ Miss
59.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
16.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United win✓ Hit
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hiiumaa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.60
2.00
2.00
2.33
3.50
1.50
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (2)
2.50
1.00
4.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
2.50
0.00
3.00
6.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
0% (-27pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.8
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.33
1.13
3.94
0.94
2.64
1.36
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (21)
3.29
1.05
3.25
1.17
3.33
0.89
vs Weaker (4)
6.50
0.50
7.67
0.33
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Hiiumaa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 5.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (48%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
97.8%
Under 1.5
2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
91.6%
Under 2.5
8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
80.6%
Under 3.5
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
86.3%
No
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-2
5.9%
3-1
5.3%
2-2
5.3%
4-2
5.0%
2-1
4.8%
4-1
4.5%
3-3
4.4%
2-3
3.9%
Hiiumaa goals ↓
Nõmme United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0.7%
0.6%
0.9%
0.7%
0.4%
1
1.0%
3.1%
3.2%
2.4%
1.3%
2
2.2%
4.8%
5.3%
3.9%
2.2%
3
2.4%
5.3%
5.9%
4.4%
2.4%
4
2.0%
4.5%
5.0%
3.7%
2.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hiiumaa goals (down), columns = Nõmme United goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.60
Paide
2.40
Tartu Welco
2.40
Vaprus
2.40
Trans Narva
2.40
Tallinna Kalev
2.25
Elva
2.25
Nõmme United
2.25
Keila
2.00
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Laagri
2.00
Tallinna FC Zapoos
2.00
FC Tallinn
2.00
Poseidon
2.00
Saku Sporting
2.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.00
Tammeka
2.00
Viimsi
1.80
Saue
1.50
Tallinna Wolves
1.50
Joker
1.50
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.50
Hell Hunt
1.50
Tabasalu Ulasabat
1.50
Team Helm
1.50
Tulevik
1.50
Tamper
1.50
Flora II
1.50
Kristiine JK
1.50
Kompanii Marjamaa
1.50
Kuressaare
1.50
Kalju Nomme
1.50
Rae Spordikool
1.33
Volta II / Arsenal
1.00
Tammeka Tartu U19
0.96
Lahte United
0.96
Nomme Utd U19
0.96
Rakvere FC Freedom
0.96
Jõgeva Wolves
0.96
Kummik
0.96
Elva III
0.96
Deliirium
0.96
Paide III
0.96
Generation Tallinn
0.96
Rumori Calcio II
0.96
Kena
0.96
Harju JK Laagri U21
0.96
Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta
0.96
Järva-Jaani
0.00
FC Kohvile
0.00
Welco X
0.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
0.00
Flora III
0.00
Vana Hea Puur
0.00
Hiiumaa
0.00
Helios
0.00
Zealot Sporting
0.00
Kose
0.00
TalTech
0.00
Kuusalu Kalev
0.00
Raplamaa
0.00
Soccernet
0.00
EstHam United
0.00
Legion
0.00
Phoenix
0.00
JK Tabasalu
0.00
Tartu Kalev
0.00
Rumori Calcio
0.00
Olympic
0.00
TransferWise
0.00
Hiiumaa is 2.25 points worse than Nõmme United in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 2.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Laagri
9.67
Tartu Welco
6.80
Tabasalu Ulasabat
6.50
Flora II
6.00
Vaprus
5.60
FC Tallinn
5.33
Flora Tallinn
4.80
Tammeka
4.67
Tallinna Wolves
4.50
Trans Narva
4.40
Rae Spordikool
4.00
Soccernet
4.00
Tallinna FC Zapoos
4.00
Kuressaare
4.00
Tallinna Kalev
3.25
Saue
3.00
Keila
3.00
Tulevik
3.00
Viimsi
3.00
Kompanii Marjamaa
3.00
Kalju Nomme
3.00
Paide
2.80
Nõmme United
2.75
Tallinna Kalev II
2.67
Saku Sporting
2.67
Joker
2.50
Tamper
2.50
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.50
Elva
2.25
Tammeka Tartu U19
2.24
Lahte United
2.24
Nomme Utd U19
2.24
Rakvere FC Freedom
2.24
Jõgeva Wolves
2.24
Kummik
2.24
Elva III
2.24
Deliirium
2.24
Paide III
2.24
Generation Tallinn
2.24
Rumori Calcio II
2.24
Kena
2.24
Harju JK Laagri U21
2.24
Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta
2.24
Volta II / Arsenal
2.00
Team Helm
2.00
Rumori Calcio
2.00
Kristiine JK
2.00
Poseidon
1.67
Järva-Jaani
1.00
Flora III
1.00
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.00
Zealot Sporting
1.00
TalTech
1.00
Hell Hunt
1.00
Raplamaa
1.00
Phoenix
1.00
Tartu Kalev
1.00
FC Kohvile
0.00
Welco X
0.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
0.00
Vana Hea Puur
0.00
Hiiumaa
0.00
Helios
0.00
Kose
0.00
Kuusalu Kalev
0.00
EstHam United
0.00
Legion
0.00
JK Tabasalu
0.00
Olympic
0.00
TransferWise
0.00
Hiiumaa is 2.75 goals worse than Nõmme United in terms of goals scored per game (0.00 vs 2.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tallinna Kalev II
0.33
Laagri
0.33
Tartu Welco
0.40
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.50
Flora Tallinn
0.60
Trans Narva
0.80
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
1.00
Kalju Nomme
1.00
Paide
1.20
Elva
1.25
Nõmme United
1.25
Tallinna FC Zapoos
1.33
Tammeka
1.33
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.50
Tabasalu Ulasabat
1.50
Kompanii Marjamaa
1.50
Volta II / Arsenal
2.00
Tartu Kalev
2.00
Tallinna Kalev
2.00
Saku Sporting
2.00
FC Tallinn
2.33
Poseidon
2.33
Saue
2.50
Flora II
2.50
Viimsi
2.60
Hiiumaa
3.00
Helios
3.00
Legion
3.00
Tamper
3.00
Joker
3.50
Hell Hunt
3.50
Järva-Jaani
4.00
FC Kohvile
4.00
Keila
4.00
Tallinna Wolves
4.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
4.00
Rae Spordikool
4.00
Rumori Calcio
4.00
Kristiine JK
4.00
Tammeka Tartu U19
4.31
Lahte United
4.31
Nomme Utd U19
4.31
Rakvere FC Freedom
4.31
Jõgeva Wolves
4.31
Kummik
4.31
Elva III
4.31
Deliirium
4.31
Paide III
4.31
Generation Tallinn
4.31
Rumori Calcio II
4.31
Kena
4.31
Harju JK Laagri U21
4.31
Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta
4.31
Raplamaa
5.00
Vana Hea Puur
6.00
Soccernet
6.00
Phoenix
6.00
JK Tabasalu
6.00
Olympic
6.00
Tulevik
6.50
Zealot Sporting
7.00
Kose
7.00
TalTech
7.00
Team Helm
7.00
Welco X
8.00
Flora III
8.00
EstHam United
9.00
Kuusalu Kalev
16.00
TransferWise
26.00
Hiiumaa is 1.75 goals worse than Nõmme United in terms of goals conceded per game (3.00 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hiiumaa or Draw✗ Miss
76.1%
Avg Implied -
60%
16%
24%
covers Hiiumaa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hiiumaa or Nõmme United✓ Hit
83.8%
Avg Implied -
60%
16%
24%
covers Hiiumaa + Nõmme United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Nõmme United✓ Hit
40.2%
Avg Implied -
60%
16%
24%
covers Draw + Nõmme United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hiiumaa over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
96.5%
Under
3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hiiumaa over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
84.7%
Under
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hiiumaa over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
65.0%
Under
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hiiumaa over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
42.9%
Under
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
89.2%
Under
10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
65.1%
Under
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
38.4%
Under
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
18.5%
Under
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hiiumaa, so a minus line means Hiiumaa give that many goals of a start and Nõmme United receive them. At -1, Hiiumaa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hiiumaa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hiiumaa)Actual: Nõmme United
Hiiumaa -2
27.1%
Draw -2
15.7%
Nõmme United +2
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Hiiumaa)Actual: Nõmme United
Hiiumaa -1
42.8%
Draw -1
17.0%
Nõmme United +1
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Hiiumaa)Actual: Nõmme United
Hiiumaa +1
76.1%
Draw +1
11.2%
Nõmme United -1
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Hiiumaa)Actual: Draw
Hiiumaa +2
87.3%
Draw +2
7.0%
Nõmme United -2
5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hiiumaa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.80
1.00
0.67
1.50
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
0.57
2.12
0.69
1.43
0.43
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
0.00
0.00
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.76
0.57
1.75
0.83
1.78
0.22
vs Weaker (4)
3.50
0.25
4.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Hiiumaa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hiiumaa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hiiumaa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hiiumaa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hiiumaa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.20
1.00
1.67
2.00
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
0.00
3.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
0.57
1.81
0.25
1.21
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
1.00
0.00
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (21)
1.52
0.48
1.50
0.33
1.56
0.67
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
0.25
3.33
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Hiiumaa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hiiumaa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hiiumaa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hiiumaa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
BTTS Yes
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 1.5 goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 7.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
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Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →