The contest between Hillerød and Aalborg is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win. Hillerød’s recent 2-game winning streak gives them a slight edge, yet Aalborg’s last draw shows they are not far behind. The model assigns a 41% chance to a Hillerød victory, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 32% chance that Aalborg will triumph. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a modestly high scoring match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.9% probability.
Hillerød’s home form shows they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded against opponents of similar strength, while Aalborg’s away record is 1.15 goals scored and 1.46 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Under 6.5 (97.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.3%), Under 5.5 (93.3%), Home +2 handicap (85.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (85.3%), and Under 4.5 (84.3%). Each pick is presented with its exact probability, reflecting the nuanced uncertainty of this encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hillerød win
42.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aalborg win
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hillerød
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.37
1.29
1.00
2.12
1.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.41
1.44
1.29
1.00
1.54
1.92
vs Weaker (3)
4.67
0.67
-
-
4.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aalborg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.47
1.33
1.47
1.47
1.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.26
1.41
1.36
1.36
1.15
1.46
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
2.00
1.00
3.00
3.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.5%
Under 1.5
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
53.7%
Under 2.5
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.4%
Under 3.5
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.0%
No
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
2-1
9.1%
1-0
8.0%
1-2
7.5%
0-0
7.1%
2-0
7.1%
0-1
6.4%
2-2
5.8%
Hillerød goals ↓
Aalborg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
6.4%
4.9%
2.1%
0.7%
1
8.0%
13%
7.5%
3.2%
1.0%
2
7.1%
9.1%
5.8%
2.5%
0.8%
3
3.6%
4.7%
3.0%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.4%
1.8%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hillerød goals (down), columns = Aalborg goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hvidovre
2.33
Vejle
2.33
Hobro
2.00
Aarhus Fremad
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Aalborg
1.33
Kolding IF
1.00
AB Copenhagen
1.00
Hillerød
0.67
Esbjerg
0.67
HB Koge
0.33
Hillerød is 0.67 points worse than Aalborg in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vejle
2.67
Hillerød
1.67
Hvidovre
1.67
Hobro
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Kolding IF
1.33
AB Copenhagen
1.33
Esbjerg
1.33
Aarhus Fremad
1.17
Vendsyssel FF
1.17
Aalborg
0.83
HB Koge
0.50
Hillerød is 0.83 goals better than Aalborg in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 0.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Fredericia
0.67
Aarhus Fremad
0.83
Hvidovre
0.83
Aalborg
1.17
AB Copenhagen
1.17
Hobro
1.33
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Kolding IF
1.50
Vejle
1.67
HB Koge
2.00
Hillerød
2.00
Esbjerg
2.17
Hillerød is 0.83 goals worse than Aalborg in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hillerød or Draw
69.5%
Avg Implied -
42%
27%
30%
covers Hillerød + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hillerød or Aalborg
72.7%
Avg Implied -
42%
27%
30%
covers Hillerød + Aalborg
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Aalborg
57.7%
Avg Implied -
42%
27%
30%
covers Draw + Aalborg
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hillerød over/under 0.5
Over
78.6%
Under
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5
Over
45.7%
Under
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5
Over
20.2%
Under
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 3.5
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 0.5
Over
72.3%
Under
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 1.5
Over
36.7%
Under
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 2.5
Over
13.9%
Under
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 3.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hillerød, so a minus line means Hillerød give that many goals of a start and Aalborg receive them. At -1, Hillerød must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hillerød win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hillerød)
Hillerød -2
8.7%
Draw -2
13.0%
Aalborg +2
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Hillerød)
Hillerød -1
21.7%
Draw -1
20.6%
Aalborg +1
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Hillerød)
Hillerød +1
69.5%
Draw +1
16.9%
Aalborg -1
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Hillerød)
Hillerød +2
86.4%
Draw +2
9.0%
Aalborg -2
4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hillerød
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.57
0.36
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.48
0.57
0.36
0.54
0.62
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
-
-
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aalborg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.60
0.40
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.52
0.52
0.64
0.36
0.38
0.69
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hillerød
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.87
0.71
0.64
1.50
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.85
0.96
0.71
0.64
1.00
1.31
vs Weaker (3)
3.67
0.00
-
-
3.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aalborg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.90
0.73
1.07
1.07
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.74
0.89
0.71
1.00
0.77
0.77
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Aalborg · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Malthe Højholt33%
Mathias Jørgensen25%
John Iredale21%
Nicklas Helenius19%
Aaron Seydel17%
Kasper Jørgensen13%
Melker Widell11%
Mads Bomholt10%
Oliver Ross7%
Bjarne Pudel5%
Andres Jasson3%
Jubril Adedeji0%
Andreas Bruus0%
Lars Kramer0%
Oumar Diakhité0%
Diego Caballo0%
Vincent Müller0%
Kelvin John0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Marc Nielsen0%
Mylian Jimenez0%
Elison Makolli0%
Travis Hernes0%
Sebastian Otoa0%
Nóel Atli Arnórsson0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Valdemar Møller Damgaard0%
Amar Diagne0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Oumar Diakhité31%
Bjarne Pudel29%
Mylian Jimenez26%
Kasper Davidsen22%
Melker Widell19%
Lars Kramer17%
Marc Nielsen17%
Andres Jasson16%
Kasper Jørgensen13%
Jubril Adedeji12%
Andreas Bruus10%
Oliver Ross10%
Travis Hernes8%
Isak Hansen Aarøen7%
Mads Bomholt7%
Nóel Atli Arnórsson6%
Kelvin John4%
Vincent Müller3%
Malthe Højholt0%
Nicklas Helenius0%
Aaron Seydel0%
Diego Caballo0%
Mathias Jørgensen0%
John Iredale0%
Elison Makolli0%
Sebastian Otoa0%
Valdemar Møller Damgaard0%
Amar Diagne0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nicklas Helenius19%
Mathias Jørgensen16%
Nóel Atli Arnórsson12%
Melker Widell11%
Sebastian Otoa10%
Andres Jasson10%
Kasper Jørgensen7%
Bjarne Pudel5%
Kelvin John4%
Mylian Jimenez4%
Kasper Davidsen4%
Lars Kramer3%
Oliver Ross3%
Malthe Højholt0%
Jubril Adedeji0%
Andreas Bruus0%
Aaron Seydel0%
Oumar Diakhité0%
Diego Caballo0%
Vincent Müller0%
John Iredale0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Marc Nielsen0%
Elison Makolli0%
Travis Hernes0%
Mads Bomholt0%
Valdemar Møller Damgaard0%
Amar Diagne0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathias Jørgensen31%
Kasper Jørgensen17%
Melker Widell15%
Jubril Adedeji12%
John Iredale7%
Oliver Ross7%
Mylian Jimenez4%
Andres Jasson3%
Malthe Højholt0%
Nicklas Helenius0%
Andreas Bruus0%
Aaron Seydel0%
Lars Kramer0%
Oumar Diakhité0%
Diego Caballo0%
Vincent Müller0%
Kelvin John0%
Bjarne Pudel0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Marc Nielsen0%
Elison Makolli0%
Travis Hernes0%
Sebastian Otoa0%
Nóel Atli Arnórsson0%
Mads Bomholt0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Valdemar Møller Damgaard0%
Amar Diagne0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (24)
€10m
VEJ (22)
€9m
FF (17)
€8m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
VF (3)
€1m
AC (3)
€1m
Hillerød's squad is €6m less valuable than Aalborg's (€4m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEJ (7)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
FF (5)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
AC (1)
€0m
Hillerød's attack is €1m less valuable than Aalborg's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FF (5)
€3m
VEJ (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
Hillerød and Aalborg have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
VEJ (9)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
VF (0)
€0m
Hillerød's defence is €4m less valuable than Aalborg's (€2m vs €6m).
Denmark: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →