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Hillerød vs Aarhus Fremad Result & Analysis

Date: 21/03/2026
Time: 12:00
Final 1-0
Hillerød
Hillerød
Vs
46%
28%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
Denmark: 1. Division
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Hillerød’s recent two-game winning streak fuels the model’s pick of a home victory, with a 46% chance of triumph, a 28% chance of a draw and a 26% chance of an away win. The expected total goals hover at 2.6, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.4% probability. Hillerød, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 2.17 goals scored and 1.08 conceded, while Aarhus Fremad on the road averages 1.64 goals scored and 1.18 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 74.9% and Under 3.5 goals at 73.1%. The home side’s form shows a 46% win, 28% draw, 26% loss probability, while the away side’s odds mirror those figures. The match is expected to be tight, with Hillerød’s recent form and home advantage giving them the edge, yet the 1-1 scoreline remains the most probable outcome.

Results analysis

Hillerød extended their two-game winning streak with a 1-0 victory over Aarhus Fremad, keeping the home side’s form narrative alive. The model’s favourite, a Home win at 46%, proved correct, matching the actual result. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 fell short, but the 1-0 outcome still aligned with the model’s overall assessment. The suggested Over 1.5, at 74.9%, missed as only one goal was scored, whereas the Under 3.5, at 73.1%, hit the mark. Overall, the model’s selections were largely accurate, with the single miss reflecting the match’s low-scoring nature.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hillerød win✓ Hit
45.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad win✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

HillerødHillerød

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W11D21W11D11D13L10W33D01L22DA·MID04/10H·HVI18/10A·HOB25/10H·KOL01/11A·HB 07/11A·AC 23/11H·LYN28/11A·AAL27/02H·B 907/03A·ESB15/03
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.971.402.131.131.801.67
vs Stronger (1)1.002.001.002.00--
vs Similar (25)1.841.482.171.081.541.85
vs Weaker (4)3.000.752.501.003.500.50
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L33D01L00D02L22D11D41W10W00DH·B 904/10A·LYN19/10H·ESB25/10H·HVI01/11A·HOB07/11H·HB 23/11A·KOL30/11H·MID28/02A·AAL06/03H·AC 14/03
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.191.751.171.711.21
vs Stronger (1)1.002.00--1.002.00
vs Similar (22)1.591.181.551.181.641.18
vs Weaker (3)3.001.004.001.002.501.00
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%017%126%222%314%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.9%
Under 1.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.8%
Under 2.5
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.9%
Under 3.5
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.4%
No
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0 ✓
9.8%
2-1
9.3%
0-0
8.5%
2-0
8.4%
0-1
6.8%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
5.1%
Hillerød goals ↓
Aarhus Fremad goals →
01234
08.5%6.8%4.4%1.6%0.4%
19.8%13%6.7%2.4%0.7%
28.4%9.3%5.1%1.9%0.5%
34.3%4.7%2.6%0.9%0.3%
41.6%1.8%1.0%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hillerød goals (down), columns = Aarhus Fremad goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Lyngby
1.88
AC Horsens
1.69
Esbjerg
1.62
Hillerød
1.56
Aalborg
1.44
Hvidovre
1.44
Aarhus Fremad
1.38
Hobro
1.31
HB Koge
1.25
Kolding IF
1.19
B 93
1.16
Middelfart
0.47
Hillerød is 0.19 points better than Aarhus Fremad in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 1.38).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Lyngby
2.16
Aarhus Fremad
1.62
Aalborg
1.56
Esbjerg
1.41
B 93
1.38
Hvidovre
1.34
Hillerød
1.31
AC Horsens
1.31
HB Koge
1.31
Hobro
1.25
Kolding IF
1.16
Middelfart
1.00
Hillerød is 0.31 goals worse than Aarhus Fremad in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.62).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
AC Horsens
0.84
Lyngby
1.12
Aarhus Fremad
1.16
Hvidovre
1.22
Kolding IF
1.25
Hobro
1.34
Hillerød
1.34
Esbjerg
1.34
Aalborg
1.47
HB Koge
1.50
B 93
1.81
Middelfart
2.41
Hillerød is 0.19 goals worse than Aarhus Fremad in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 1.16).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

HillerødHillerød

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D11D21W10W00D01L10W10W01L02LA·MID04/10H·HVI18/10A·HOB25/10H·KOL01/11A·HB 07/11A·AC 23/11H·LYN28/11A·AAL27/02H·B 907/03A·ESB15/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.801.070.730.670.87
vs Stronger (1)0.001.000.001.00--
vs Similar (25)0.920.801.250.670.620.92
vs Weaker (4)0.750.750.501.001.000.50
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D11D01L00D00D11D01L10W00D00DH·B 904/10A·LYN19/10H·ESB25/10H·HVI01/11A·HOB07/11H·HB 23/11A·KOL30/11H·MID28/02A·AAL06/03H·AC 14/03
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.850.540.920.420.790.64
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (22)0.820.550.910.450.730.64
vs Weaker (3)1.330.331.000.001.500.50
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

HillerødHillerød

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D00D01L11D12L00D23L00D20WA·MID04/10H·HVI18/10A·HOB25/10H·KOL01/11A·HB 07/11A·AC 23/11H·LYN28/11A·AAL27/02H·B 907/03A·ESB15/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.601.070.401.130.80
vs Stronger (1)1.001.001.001.00--
vs Similar (25)0.920.680.920.420.920.92
vs Weaker (4)2.250.002.000.002.500.00
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L22D00D00D02L11D10W31W10W00DH·B 904/10A·LYN19/10H·ESB25/10H·HVI01/11A·HOB07/11H·HB 23/11A·KOL30/11H·MID28/02A·AAL06/03H·AC 14/03
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.880.650.830.750.930.57
vs Stronger (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
vs Similar (22)0.770.640.640.730.910.55
vs Weaker (3)1.670.673.001.001.000.50
Clean sheet %46% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.9%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.573.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LYN (22)
€13m
AH (27)
€10m
AAL (24)
€10m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
Hillerød's squad is €1m more valuable than Aarhus Fremad's (€4m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (9)
€4m
LYN (5)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
Hillerød and Aarhus Fremad have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LYN (8)
€5m
AH (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
Hillerød and Aarhus Fremad have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
LYN (9)
€5m
AH (12)
€4m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
Hillerød and Aarhus Fremad have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
HIL wins
0
Draws
1
AF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Hillerød vs Aarhus Fremad · H/A from HIL
DateH/AGameScore
09/08/25AAarhus Fremad Vs HIL3-1

HillerødHillerød

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/03/26AEsbjerg Vs HIL2-2
07/03/26HHIL Vs B 930-1
27/02/26AAalborg Vs HIL3-3
28/11/25HHIL Vs Lyngby1-0
23/11/25AAC Horsens Vs HIL3-1
07/11/25AHB Koge Vs HIL1-1
01/11/25HHIL Vs Kolding IF1-1
25/10/25AHobro Vs HIL1-2
18/10/25HHIL Vs Hvidovre1-1
04/10/25AMiddelfart Vs HIL1-2

Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/03/26HAF Vs AC Horsens0-0
06/03/26AAalborg Vs AF0-1
28/02/26HAF Vs Middelfart4-1
30/11/25AKolding IF Vs AF1-1
23/11/25HAF Vs HB Koge2-2
07/11/25AHobro Vs AF2-0
01/11/25HAF Vs Hvidovre0-0
25/10/25HAF Vs Esbjerg0-1
19/10/25ALyngby Vs AF3-3
04/10/25HAF Vs B 931-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Hillerød
Hillerød
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDLD1.72
HomeWDDWL1.75
AwayWDLDD1.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%50%46%
AVG goals3.123.043.19
Over 1.5 %86%88%85%
Over 2.5 %64%58%69%
Over 3.5 %38%29%46%
Scored1.821.791.85
Conceded1.301.251.35
BTTS66%62%69%
Clean Sheet26%25%27%
Corners---
Cards---
Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 5 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWWD1.38
HomeLDDWD1.33
AwayDDLDW1.43
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %35%33%36%
AVG goals2.922.922.93
Over 1.5 %81%75%86%
Over 2.5 %58%67%50%
Over 3.5 %35%42%29%
Scored1.731.751.71
Conceded1.191.171.21
BTTS58%58%57%
Clean Sheet27%25%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LyngbyLyngby3260
56%
1.9
6936+33
3.3
91%
69%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
3552.21.1
-
2AC HorsensAC Horsens3254
47%
1.7
4227+15
2.2
56%
41%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.30.8
-
3EsbjergEsbjerg3252
47%
1.6
4543+2
2.8
75%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.41.3
-
4HillerødHillerød3250
41%
1.6
4243-1
2.7
81%
59%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.31.3
-
5HvidovreHvidovre3246
34%
1.4
4339+4
2.6
81%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.31.2
-
6AalborgAalborg3246
38%
1.4
5047+3
3.0
78%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
2261.61.5
-
7Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad3244
34%
1.4
5237+15
2.8
72%
53%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.61.2
-
8HobroHobro3242
34%
1.3
4043-3
2.6
72%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.21.3
-
9HB KogeHB Koge3240
34%
1.2
4248-6
2.8
81%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.31.5
-
10Kolding IFKolding IF3238
31%
1.2
3740-3
2.4
72%
50%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.21.2
-
11B 93B 933237
31%
1.2
4458-14
3.2
81%
66%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
12MiddelfartMiddelfart3215
9%
0.5
3277-45
3.4
78%
72%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.4
-
Denmark: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →

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