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Hillerød vs Aarhus Fremad Result & Analysis

Date: 15/08/2026
Time: 11:00
Final 1-1
Hillerød
Hillerød
Vs
42%
29%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
Denmark: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

This match between Hillerød and Aarhus Fremad in the Denmark 1. Division is finely balanced, with neither side clearly holding the advantage. Recent form suggests Hillerød's struggles continue, having suffered two consecutive defeats, while Aarhus Fremad is coming off a win.

The model predicts a home win, with a 40% probability, and a 31% chance of an away win. A draw is slightly less likely at 29%. The expected total number of goals is 2.6, with the most likely total number of goals being 2.

The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.8%. Hillerød's home form is mediocre, scoring 1.36 goals and conceding 0.91 per game against similar opponents. Aarhus Fremad's away form is also unimpressive, scoring 1.27 goals and conceding 1.27 per game.

The model's selection is the home win, and it also suggests Over 1.5 goals (74.3%) and Under 3.5 goals (73.9%) as its selections. The home win percentage is 40%, the draw percentage is 29%, and the away win percentage is 31%.

Results analysis

The draw between Hillerød and Aarhus Fremad has extended the home team's recent run of draws, with their last five results reading DLLLW. They came into this match off a draw against Aarhus Fremad, which ended 1-1. The pre-match favourite, Hillerød, failed to deliver, as the model's selection, a home win, was incorrect. The model's call was wrong, despite having a 42% probability of a home win. The model's selection of a home win was not correct. The suggested picks were more accurate, with 'Over 1.5' hitting at 74.6% and 'Under 3.5' also hitting at 73.5%, offering a 7% edge. The final score was 1-1, resulting in a draw, which was the actual result.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hillerød win✗ Miss
42.1%
Avg Implied 38.2% · @ 2.40
Edge
+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.49
Dafabet
2.46
Marathonbet
2.44
1xBet
2.44
Unibet
2.43
Draw✓ Hit
28.6%
Avg Implied 27.4% · @ 3.35
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Dafabet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.42
Aarhus Fremad win✗ Miss
29.3%
Avg Implied 34.4% · @ 2.67
Edge
-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.78
Betano
2.75
Marathonbet
2.71
1xBet
2.71
Bet365
2.70

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

HillerødHillerød

Last 10 – goals for & against
120-1220W21W04L11D03L21W01L23L120W45LH·KOL25/04A·LYN03/05A·AC 09/05H·ESB16/05A·KOL25/05H·HVI31/05A·AAL24/07H·ESB01/08A·VAE06/08A·VEJ09/08
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.501.291.002.121.94
vs Stronger (1)1.002.001.002.00--
vs Similar (27)1.371.561.310.921.432.14
vs Weaker (2)7.000.50--7.000.50
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L10W00D30W50W22D21W12L40W31WH·HOB26/04A·MID01/05H·HB 09/05A·HOB14/05H·AAL22/05A·B 930/05A·HOB26/07H·AAL31/07A·RIN04/08H·HB 08/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.871.071.870.931.871.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.621.151.460.921.771.38
vs Weaker (4)3.500.504.501.002.500.00
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.6%
@ 1.22-1.8%
Under 1.5
25.4%
@ 3.93+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
10Bet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.20
Pinnacle
4.13
Bet365
4.00
BetVictor
4.00
888Sport
3.90
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.2%
@ 1.72-6.0%
Under 2.5
51.8%
@ 2.04+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Under
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.08
Bet365
2.08
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.5%
@ 2.77-7.0%
Under 3.5
73.5%
@ 1.39+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.85
888Sport
2.80
Unibet
2.75
Under
Pinnacle
1.42
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.7%
@ 1.57-4.9%
No
46.3%
@ 2.23+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.62
Betfair
1.60
BetVictor
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
No
1xBet
2.26
Betano
2.25
William Hil
2.25
888Sport
2.25
BetVictor
2.25

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.6%@ 6.24+6.6%
1-0
9.4%@ 8.87+4.5%
2-1
8.9%@ 8.41+3.7%
0-0
8.6%@ 10.93+4.6%
2-0
7.7%@ 11.80+3.9%
0-1
7.4%@ 9.34+2.7%
1-2
7.2%@ 8.92+2.3%
2-2
5.2%@ 10.96+1.2%
Hillerød goals ↓
Aarhus Fremad goals →
01234
08.6%7.4%5.0%1.9%0.6%
19.4%14%7.2%2.8%0.8%
27.7%8.9%5.2%2.0%0.6%
33.7%4.3%2.5%1.0%0.3%
41.3%1.5%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hillerød goals (down), columns = Aarhus Fremad goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hvidovre
2.33
Vejle
2.33
Hobro
2.00
Aarhus Fremad
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Aalborg
1.33
Kolding IF
1.00
AB Copenhagen
1.00
Hillerød
0.67
Esbjerg
0.67
HB Koge
0.33
Hillerød is 0.83 points worse than Aarhus Fremad in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Vejle
2.67
Hillerød
1.67
Hvidovre
1.67
Hobro
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Kolding IF
1.33
AB Copenhagen
1.33
Esbjerg
1.33
Aarhus Fremad
1.17
Vendsyssel FF
1.17
Aalborg
0.83
HB Koge
0.50
Hillerød is 0.50 goals better than Aarhus Fremad in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Fredericia
0.67
Aarhus Fremad
0.83
Hvidovre
0.83
Aalborg
1.17
AB Copenhagen
1.17
Hobro
1.33
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Kolding IF
1.50
Vejle
1.67
HB Koge
2.00
Hillerød
2.00
Esbjerg
2.17
Hillerød is 1.17 goals worse than Aarhus Fremad in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 0.83).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

HillerødHillerød

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D01L00D01L10W00D02L20W21WH·KOL25/04A·LYN03/05A·AC 09/05H·ESB16/05A·KOL25/05H·HVI31/05A·AAL24/07H·ESB01/08A·VAE06/08A·VEJ09/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.570.570.360.620.75
vs Stronger (1)0.001.000.001.00--
vs Similar (27)0.560.560.620.310.500.79
vs Weaker (2)1.500.50--1.500.50
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D00D10W10W21W21W01L30W20WH·HOB26/04A·MID01/05H·HB 09/05A·HOB14/05H·AAL22/05A·B 930/05A·HOB26/07H·AAL31/07A·RIN04/08H·HB 08/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.500.730.401.000.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.730.540.540.380.920.69
vs Weaker (4)1.750.252.000.501.500.00
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

HillerødHillerød

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
100-1010W10W03L11D02L11D01L21W100W24LH·KOL25/04A·LYN03/05A·AC 09/05H·ESB16/05A·KOL25/05H·HVI31/05A·AAL24/07H·ESB01/08A·VAE06/08A·VEJ09/08
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.930.710.641.501.19
vs Stronger (1)1.001.001.001.00--
vs Similar (27)0.811.000.690.620.931.36
vs Weaker (2)5.500.00--5.500.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Aarhus Fremad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D10W00D20W40W01L00D11D10W11DH·HOB26/04A·MID01/05H·HB 09/05A·HOB14/05H·AAL22/05A·B 930/05A·HOB26/07H·AAL31/07A·RIN04/08H·HB 08/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.571.130.530.870.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.880.620.920.540.850.69
vs Weaker (4)1.750.252.500.501.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aarhus Fremad over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.6%1.22
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
10Bet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Unibet
1.22
-1.8%✓ Hit
Under 3.573.5%1.39
Pinnacle
1.42
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
+7.0%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (24)
€10m
VEJ (22)
€9m
FF (17)
€8m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
VF (3)
€1m
AC (3)
€1m
Hillerød's squad is €1m more valuable than Aarhus Fremad's (€4m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEJ (7)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
FF (5)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
AC (1)
€0m
Hillerød and Aarhus Fremad have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FF (5)
€3m
VEJ (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
Hillerød and Aarhus Fremad have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
VEJ (9)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
VF (0)
€0m
Hillerød and Aarhus Fremad have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
HIL wins
0
Draws
1
AF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Hillerød vs Aarhus Fremad · H/A from HIL
DateH/AGameScore
21/03/26HHIL Vs Aarhus Fremad1-0
09/08/25AAarhus Fremad Vs HIL3-1

HillerødHillerød

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/08/26AVejle Vs HIL5-4
06/08/26AVaeggerlose Vs HIL0-12
01/08/26HHIL Vs Esbjerg2-3
24/07/26AAalborg Vs HIL1-0
31/05/26HHIL Vs Hvidovre2-1
25/05/26AKolding IF Vs HIL3-0
16/05/26HHIL Vs Esbjerg1-1
09/05/26AAC Horsens Vs HIL4-0
03/05/26ALyngby Vs HIL1-2
25/04/26HHIL Vs Kolding IF2-0

Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/08/26HAF Vs HB Koge3-1
04/08/26ARingkøbing Vs AF0-4
31/07/26HAF Vs Aalborg1-2
26/07/26AHobro Vs AF1-2
30/05/26AB 93 Vs AF2-2
22/05/26HAF Vs Aalborg5-0
14/05/26AHobro Vs AF0-3
09/05/26HAF Vs HB Koge0-0
01/05/26AMiddelfart Vs AF0-1
26/04/26HAF Vs Hobro0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Hillerød
Hillerød
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWL1.60
HomeLWDWL1.88
AwayLLLWL1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%54%35%
AVG goals3.182.923.42
Over 1.5 %80%83%77%
Over 2.5 %60%54%65%
Over 3.5 %36%29%42%
Scored1.841.831.85
Conceded1.341.081.58
BTTS60%62%58%
Clean Sheet28%29%27%
Corners---
Cards---
Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWW1.51
HomeLDWLW1.53
AwayWWDWW1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %41%42%41%
AVG goals2.953.052.86
Over 1.5 %78%74%82%
Over 2.5 %61%68%55%
Over 3.5 %39%47%32%
Scored1.832.001.68
Conceded1.121.051.18
BTTS54%58%50%
Clean Sheet29%26%32%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1VejleVejle614
67%
2.3
1610+6
4.3
83%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3242.71.7
-
2HvidovreHvidovre614
67%
2.3
105+5
2.5
83%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.70.8
-
3HobroHobro612
67%
2.0
98+1
2.8
83%
83%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.51.3
-
4FC FredericiaFC Fredericia69
33%
1.5
94+5
2.2
83%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
2331.50.7
-
5Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad69
33%
1.5
75+2
2.0
67%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.20.8
-
6Vendsyssel FFVendsyssel FF68
33%
1.3
78-1
2.5
83%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.3
-
7AalborgAalborg68
33%
1.3
57-2
2.0
67%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
2260.81.2
-
8AB CopenhagenAB Copenhagen66
17%
1.0
87+1
2.5
83%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.2
-
9Kolding IFKolding IF66
17%
1.0
89-1
2.8
83%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.31.5
-
10HillerødHillerød64
17%
0.7
1012-2
3.7
67%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.72.0
-
11EsbjergEsbjerg64
17%
0.7
813-5
3.5
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.32.2
-
12HB KogeHB Koge62
0%
0.3
312-9
2.5
83%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1220.52.0
-
Denmark: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →

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