Hillerød’s 77 % chance of triumph makes the home win the clear favourite, a result the model rates highest because the visitors, AB Copenhagen, are struggling away against stronger opposition, conceding 1.5 goals on average. The expected 3.6 goals translate to an average of 3 goals per match, with the most likely total being 3 at 21 %. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0 for Hillerød, a 10.7 % chance, reflecting the home side’s recent defensive solidity after a 0-1 loss to Vendsyssel FF. Hillerød’s home form shows they score 1.0 and concede 1.5 against this tier, while AB Copenhagen’s away form shows 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded against stronger teams. The model’s suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (99 %), Home +2 handicap (97.6 %), Under 7.5 (97 %), Away under 2.5 goals (95 %), Home over 0.5 goals (93.6 %), Under 6.5 (92.9 %), Home or Draw (92.2 %) and Home +1 handicap (92.2 %). The probabilities for the match result are 77 % home win, 15 % draw, and 8 % away win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hillerød win
78.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
14.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AB Copenhagen win
7.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hillerød
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.37
1.29
1.00
2.12
1.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.41
1.44
1.29
1.00
1.54
1.92
vs Weaker (3)
4.67
0.67
-
-
4.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (AB Copenhagen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AB Copenhagen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.17
1.00
1.00
2.11
1.22
vs Stronger (9)
1.33
1.44
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.67
vs Similar (3)
3.33
0.33
-
-
3.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.5%
Under 1.5
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
70.5%
Under 2.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
49.4%
Under 3.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.2%
No
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.5%
3-0
9.9%
2-1
8.6%
3-1
8.1%
4-0
7.0%
1-0
6.8%
1-1
6.7%
4-1
5.7%
Hillerød goals ↓
AB Copenhagen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.2%
1.5%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
1
6.8%
6.7%
2.5%
0.7%
0.1%
2
10%
8.6%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
3
9.9%
8.1%
3.3%
0.9%
0.2%
4
7.0%
5.7%
2.3%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hillerød goals (down), columns = AB Copenhagen goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hvidovre
2.33
Vejle
2.33
Hobro
2.00
Aarhus Fremad
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Aalborg
1.33
Kolding IF
1.00
AB Copenhagen
1.00
Hillerød
0.67
Esbjerg
0.67
HB Koge
0.33
Hillerød is 0.33 points worse than AB Copenhagen in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vejle
2.67
Hillerød
1.67
Hvidovre
1.67
Hobro
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Kolding IF
1.33
AB Copenhagen
1.33
Esbjerg
1.33
Aarhus Fremad
1.17
Vendsyssel FF
1.17
Aalborg
0.83
HB Koge
0.50
Hillerød is 0.33 goals better than AB Copenhagen in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Fredericia
0.67
Aarhus Fremad
0.83
Hvidovre
0.83
Aalborg
1.17
AB Copenhagen
1.17
Hobro
1.33
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Kolding IF
1.50
Vejle
1.67
HB Koge
2.00
Hillerød
2.00
Esbjerg
2.17
Hillerød is 0.83 goals worse than AB Copenhagen in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hillerød or Draw
92.5%
Avg Implied -
78%
14%
7%
covers Hillerød + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hillerød or AB Copenhagen
85.6%
Avg Implied -
78%
14%
7%
covers Hillerød + AB Copenhagen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or AB Copenhagen
21.9%
Avg Implied -
78%
14%
7%
covers Draw + AB Copenhagen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hillerød over/under 0.5
Over
94.1%
Under
5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5
Over
77.3%
Under
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5
Over
53.6%
Under
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 3.5
Over
31.4%
Under
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AB Copenhagen over/under 0.5
Over
55.9%
Under
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AB Copenhagen over/under 1.5
Over
19.8%
Under
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AB Copenhagen over/under 2.5
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AB Copenhagen over/under 3.5
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hillerød, so a minus line means Hillerød give that many goals of a start and AB Copenhagen receive them. At -1, Hillerød must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hillerød win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hillerød)
Hillerød -2
37.6%
Draw -2
21.2%
AB Copenhagen +2
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Hillerød)
Hillerød -1
58.8%
Draw -1
19.3%
AB Copenhagen +1
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Hillerød)
Hillerød +1
92.5%
Draw +1
5.2%
AB Copenhagen -1
2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Hillerød)
Hillerød +2
97.7%
Draw +2
1.8%
AB Copenhagen -2
0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hillerød
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.57
0.36
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.48
0.57
0.36
0.54
0.62
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
-
-
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (AB Copenhagen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AB Copenhagen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.08
0.50
0.67
0.67
1.22
0.44
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.83
0.67
vs Similar (3)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
58% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.7%
Under 0.5
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.4%
Under 1.5
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.5%
Under 2.5
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.8%
Under
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 HT
Over
15.3%
Under
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AB Copenhagen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.1%
Under
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AB Copenhagen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.9%
Under
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AB Copenhagen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hillerød
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.87
0.71
0.64
1.50
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.85
0.96
0.71
0.64
1.00
1.31
vs Weaker (3)
3.67
0.00
-
-
3.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (AB Copenhagen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AB Copenhagen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.89
0.78
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.78
0.33
0.33
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (3)
1.33
0.33
-
-
1.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
42% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.9%
Under 0.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.6%
Under 1.5
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.4%
Under 2.5
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.4%
Under
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.2%
Under
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AB Copenhagen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.7%
Under
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AB Copenhagen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.3%
Under
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AB Copenhagen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (24)
€10m
VEJ (22)
€9m
FF (17)
€8m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
VF (3)
€1m
AC (3)
€1m
Hillerød's squad is €4m more valuable than AB Copenhagen's (€4m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEJ (7)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
FF (5)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
AC (1)
€0m
Hillerød's attack is €1m more valuable than AB Copenhagen's (€1m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FF (5)
€3m
VEJ (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
Hillerød's midfield is €1m more valuable than AB Copenhagen's (€1m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
VEJ (9)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
VF (0)
€0m
Hillerød's defence is €1m more valuable than AB Copenhagen's (€2m vs €0m).
Denmark: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vejle
Hvidovre
Hobro
FC Fredericia
Aarhus Fremad
Vendsyssel FF
Aalborg
Kolding IF
Esbjerg
HB Koge