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Hillerød vs Esbjerg Result & Analysis

Date: 01/08/2026
Time: 11:00
Final 2-3
Hillerød
Hillerød
Vs
48%
27%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Esbjerg
Esbjerg
Denmark: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Squad value14 Games History15 Overall Statistics16 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Hillerød is expected to emerge victorious in this encounter against Esbjerg, with a 48% chance of winning at home. The match is likely to be a closely contested affair, with a 27% chance of a draw and a 25% chance of an Esbjerg win. The expected number of goals is 2.7, indicating a relatively low-scoring match. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12.9%.

Hillerød has been struggling at home, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match against similar opponents. Esbjerg, on the other hand, has been scoring 1.46 goals and conceding 1.38 goals per match while playing away against similar opponents. The model's selection is a Home win, with suggested picks including Over 1.5 (77.1%) and Under 3.5 (70.4%), with a 7% edge for the latter. The home win percentage is 48%, draw percentage is 27%, and away win percentage is 25%.

Results analysis

The underdog, Esbjerg, pulled off a stunning 2-3 away win, handing a surprise setback to the previously undefeated Hillerød. This win extends their run of three straight defeats, a streak that started with a 4-5 loss to Vejle. The pre-match favourite, Hillerød, failed to come through, with the model correctly predicting an away win. The model's selection of Hillerød to win was wrong, with a pre-match probability of 48%. The model's call on the final score was not among the predicted most likely scores. The model's selection of an over 1.5 goals hit, while under 3.5 goals was missed, with probabilities of 77.1% and 70.4% respectively.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hillerød win✗ Miss
47.6%
Avg Implied 35.5% · @ 2.59
Edge
+12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.67
Pinnacle
2.67
Unibet
2.65
Betano
2.65
Dafabet
2.65
Draw✗ Miss
27.0%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.49
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.70
Marathonbet
3.58
1xBet
3.58
Unibet
3.55
10Bet
3.55
Esbjerg win✓ Hit
25.4%
Avg Implied 38.1% · @ 2.41
Edge
-12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.48
Superbet
2.45
Dafabet
2.45
BetVictor
2.45

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

HillerødHillerød

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D13L20W21W04L11D03L21W01LH·AC 11/04A·ESB17/04H·LYN21/04H·KOL25/04A·LYN03/05A·AC 09/05H·ESB16/05A·KOL25/05H·HVI31/05A·AAL24/07
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.331.290.861.121.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.151.381.250.831.071.86
vs Weaker (4)1.501.001.501.001.501.00
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

EsbjergEsbjerg

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W00D14L05L01L30W11D41W21W11DH·HVI10/04H·HIL17/04A·AC 21/04A·LYN24/04H·AC 30/04H·KOL09/05A·HIL16/05A·HVI25/05H·LYN31/05H·KOL25/07
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.371.601.071.271.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)1.081.361.170.831.001.85
vs Weaker (5)3.201.403.332.003.000.50
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.1%
@ 1.18-1.2%
Under 1.5
22.9%
@ 4.27+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Under
Pinnacle
4.60
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.7%
@ 1.64-5.3%
Under 2.5
48.3%
@ 2.17+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Under
Pinnacle
2.24
Betfair
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
1xBet
2.19
Betano
2.18
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.6%
@ 2.56-6.7%
Under 3.5
70.4%
@ 1.45+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.63
BetVictor
2.63
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.62
Betfair
2.60
Under
Pinnacle
1.49
Superbet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Unibet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.4%
@ 1.51-5.5%
No
44.6%
@ 2.35+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Superbet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.52
No
BetVictor
2.40
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.38
William Hil
2.38
Superbet
2.37

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%@ 6.45+6.0%
2-1
9.5%@ 8.82+4.5%
1-0
9.2%@ 9.74+4.7%
2-0
8.4%@ 13.49+5.1%
0-0
7.6%@ 12.30+4.0%
1-2
6.6%@ 8.58+1.5%
0-1
6.1%@ 9.54+1.4%
2-2
5.3%@ 10.41+1.1%
Hillerød goals ↓
Esbjerg goals →
01234
07.6%6.1%4.1%1.5%0.4%
19.2%13%6.6%2.5%0.7%
28.4%9.5%5.3%2.0%0.6%
34.5%5.1%2.9%1.1%0.3%
41.8%2.1%1.2%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hillerød goals (down), columns = Esbjerg goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Vejle
1.63
Esbjerg
1.62
Hillerød
1.56
FC Fredericia
1.50
Hvidovre
1.44
Aalborg
1.44
Aarhus Fremad
1.38
Hobro
1.31
HB Koge
1.25
Kolding IF
1.19
Vendsyssel FF
0.78
AB Copenhagen
0.60
Hillerød is 0.06 points worse than Esbjerg in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 1.62).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Vejle
1.68
Aarhus Fremad
1.62
Aalborg
1.56
FC Fredericia
1.54
Esbjerg
1.41
Hvidovre
1.34
HB Koge
1.31
Hillerød
1.31
Hobro
1.25
Kolding IF
1.16
Vendsyssel FF
0.80
AB Copenhagen
0.61
Hillerød is 0.09 goals worse than Esbjerg in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.41).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Aarhus Fremad
1.16
Vejle
1.17
Hvidovre
1.22
Kolding IF
1.25
FC Fredericia
1.28
Esbjerg
1.34
Hobro
1.34
Hillerød
1.34
Aalborg
1.47
HB Koge
1.50
Vendsyssel FF
2.46
AB Copenhagen
3.21
Hillerød and Esbjerg are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.34).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

HillerødHillerød

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D00D10W11D01L00D01L10W00DH·AC 11/04A·ESB17/04H·LYN21/04H·KOL25/04A·LYN03/05A·AC 09/05H·ESB16/05A·KOL25/05H·HVI31/05A·AAL24/07
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.530.790.210.380.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.500.540.670.170.360.86
vs Weaker (4)1.000.501.500.500.500.50
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

EsbjergEsbjerg

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D12L03L01L10W00D10W01L11DH·HVI10/04H·HIL17/04A·AC 21/04A·LYN24/04H·AC 30/04H·KOL09/05A·HIL16/05A·HVI25/05H·LYN31/05H·KOL25/07
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.670.670.530.670.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.440.680.330.500.540.85
vs Weaker (5)1.800.602.000.671.500.50
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

HillerødHillerød

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D13L10W10W03L11D02L11D01LH·AC 11/04A·ESB17/04H·LYN21/04H·KOL25/04A·LYN03/05A·AC 09/05H·ESB16/05A·KOL25/05H·HVI31/05A·AAL24/07
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.800.500.640.750.94
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.650.850.580.670.711.00
vs Weaker (4)0.500.500.000.501.000.50
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

EsbjergEsbjerg

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D02L02L00D20W11D31W20W00DH·HVI10/04H·HIL17/04A·AC 21/04A·LYN24/04H·AC 30/04H·KOL09/05A·HIL16/05A·HVI25/05H·LYN31/05H·KOL25/07
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.700.930.530.600.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.640.680.830.330.461.00
vs Weaker (5)1.400.801.331.331.500.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.1%1.18
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.18
-1.2%✓ Hit
Under 3.570.4%1.45
Pinnacle
1.49
Superbet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Unibet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
+6.7%✗ Miss

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEJ (31)
€15m
FF (32)
€13m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEJ (11)
€7m
FF (10)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEJ (8)
€3m
FF (6)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FF (16)
€6m
VEJ (12)
€5m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
1
HIL wins
4
Draws
1
ESB wins

Head-to-head

Hillerød vs Esbjerg · H/A from HIL
DateH/AGameScore
16/05/26HHIL Vs Esbjerg1-1
17/04/26AEsbjerg Vs HIL0-0
15/03/26AEsbjerg Vs HIL2-2
14/09/25HHIL Vs Esbjerg3-0
24/11/24HHIL Vs Esbjerg1-2
29/09/24AEsbjerg Vs HIL1-1

HillerødHillerød

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/07/26AAalborg Vs HIL1-0
31/05/26HHIL Vs Hvidovre2-1
25/05/26AKolding IF Vs HIL3-0
16/05/26HHIL Vs Esbjerg1-1
09/05/26AAC Horsens Vs HIL4-0
03/05/26ALyngby Vs HIL1-2
25/04/26HHIL Vs Kolding IF2-0
21/04/26HHIL Vs Lyngby1-3
17/04/26AEsbjerg Vs HIL0-0
11/04/26HHIL Vs AC Horsens0-0

EsbjergEsbjerg

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/07/26HESB Vs Kolding IF1-1
31/05/26HESB Vs Lyngby2-1
25/05/26AHvidovre Vs ESB1-4
16/05/26AHillerød Vs ESB1-1
09/05/26HESB Vs Kolding IF3-0
30/04/26HESB Vs AC Horsens0-1
24/04/26ALyngby Vs ESB5-0
21/04/26AAC Horsens Vs ESB4-1
17/04/26HESB Vs Hillerød0-0
10/04/26HESB Vs Hvidovre1-0

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Hillerød
Hillerød
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWL1.64
HomeDLWDW1.92
AwayDWLLL1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%54%35%
AVG goals2.802.792.81
Over 1.5 %80%83%77%
Over 2.5 %56%50%62%
Over 3.5 %30%25%35%
Scored1.561.791.35
Conceded1.241.001.46
BTTS62%62%62%
Clean Sheet26%29%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Esbjerg
Esbjerg
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWD1.38
HomeDLWWD1.52
AwayDLLDW1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%44%36%
AVG goals2.742.522.96
Over 1.5 %78%72%84%
Over 2.5 %46%40%52%
Over 3.5 %24%20%28%
Scored1.301.241.36
Conceded1.441.281.60
BTTS50%44%56%
Clean Sheet22%24%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1VejleVejle513
80%
2.6
1610+6
5.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
15
7353.22.0
-
2HobroHobro512
80%
2.4
85+3
2.6
80%
80%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
3HvidovreHvidovre511
60%
2.2
84+4
2.4
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.60.8
-
4FC FredericiaFC Fredericia59
40%
1.8
82+6
2.0
80%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
3361.60.4
-
5Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad58
40%
1.6
75+2
2.4
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.0
-
6AalborgAalborg57
40%
1.4
57-2
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
7AB CopenhagenAB Copenhagen56
20%
1.2
75+2
2.4
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.0
-
8Vendsyssel FFVendsyssel FF55
20%
1.0
58-3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
9EsbjergEsbjerg54
20%
0.8
811-3
3.8
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.2
-
10Kolding IFKolding IF42
0%
0.5
46-2
2.5
75%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
11HillerødHillerød51
0%
0.2
711-4
3.6
60%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.2
-
12HB KogeHB Koge40
0%
0.0
110-9
2.8
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.22.5
-
Denmark: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →

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