The model favours an away win, with a 51% chance for FC Fredericia to come away victorious, a 25% draw probability and a 24% chance of a Hillerød win. The expected total goals sit at three, yet the most likely total is two, with a 23% chance of that outcome. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.7% probability.
Hillerød, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.29 goals scored and concedes 1.0. FC Fredericia, on the road, averages 1.44 goals scored and concedes 1.67 against comparable teams. Recent form shows Hillerød on a two-game winning run after a 3-1 win over Hobro, while FC Fredericia is coming off two straight defeats, losing 1-2 to Hvidovre.
Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals (98.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.8%), Under 6.5 (96.6%), Under 5.5 (91.5%), Away +2 handicap (90.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (88.7%), Home under 2.5 goals (88.3%) and Away over 0.5 goals (83.9%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hillerød win
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia win
51.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hillerød
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.37
1.29
1.00
2.12
1.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.41
1.44
1.29
1.00
1.54
1.92
vs Weaker (3)
4.67
0.67
-
-
4.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Fredericia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Fredericia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.80
1.33
1.87
1.80
1.73
vs Stronger (6)
1.67
2.83
1.50
3.50
1.75
2.50
vs Similar (20)
1.30
1.75
1.18
1.82
1.44
1.67
vs Weaker (4)
2.75
0.50
2.00
0.50
3.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.3%
Under 1.5
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.9%
Under 2.5
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.5%
Under 3.5
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
59.2%
No
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
8.3%
0-1
8.0%
2-1
6.3%
0-0
6.0%
1-3
5.9%
2-2
5.7%
Hillerød goals ↓
FC Fredericia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
8.0%
8.3%
5.0%
2.3%
1
4.8%
12%
9.7%
5.9%
2.7%
2
3.4%
6.3%
5.7%
3.5%
1.6%
3
1.4%
2.5%
2.3%
1.4%
0.6%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hillerød goals (down), columns = FC Fredericia goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hvidovre
2.33
Vejle
2.33
Hobro
2.00
Aarhus Fremad
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Aalborg
1.33
Kolding IF
1.00
AB Copenhagen
1.00
Hillerød
0.67
Esbjerg
0.67
HB Koge
0.33
Hillerød is 0.83 points worse than FC Fredericia in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vejle
2.67
Hillerød
1.67
Hvidovre
1.67
Hobro
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Kolding IF
1.33
AB Copenhagen
1.33
Esbjerg
1.33
Aarhus Fremad
1.17
Vendsyssel FF
1.17
Aalborg
0.83
HB Koge
0.50
Hillerød is 0.17 goals better than FC Fredericia in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Fredericia
0.67
Aarhus Fremad
0.83
Hvidovre
0.83
Aalborg
1.17
AB Copenhagen
1.17
Hobro
1.33
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Kolding IF
1.50
Vejle
1.67
HB Koge
2.00
Hillerød
2.00
Esbjerg
2.17
Hillerød is 1.33 goals worse than FC Fredericia in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hillerød or Draw
48.5%
Avg Implied -
23%
25%
51%
covers Hillerød + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hillerød or FC Fredericia
75.0%
Avg Implied -
23%
25%
51%
covers Hillerød + FC Fredericia
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Fredericia
76.5%
Avg Implied -
23%
25%
51%
covers Draw + FC Fredericia
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hillerød over/under 0.5
Over
69.3%
Under
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5
Over
33.0%
Under
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 0.5
Over
83.9%
Under
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 1.5
Over
54.6%
Under
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 2.5
Over
27.7%
Under
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 3.5
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hillerød, so a minus line means Hillerød give that many goals of a start and FC Fredericia receive them. At -1, Hillerød must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hillerød win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hillerød)
Hillerød -2
3.0%
Draw -2
6.7%
FC Fredericia +2
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Hillerød)
Hillerød -1
9.7%
Draw -1
13.8%
FC Fredericia +1
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Hillerød)
Hillerød +1
48.5%
Draw +1
21.9%
FC Fredericia -1
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Hillerød)
Hillerød +2
70.4%
Draw +2
16.0%
FC Fredericia -2
13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hillerød
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.57
0.36
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.48
0.57
0.36
0.54
0.62
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
-
-
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Fredericia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Fredericia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.93
0.73
1.07
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.33
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.90
0.82
1.00
0.78
0.78
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hillerød
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.87
0.71
0.64
1.50
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.85
0.96
0.71
0.64
1.00
1.31
vs Weaker (3)
3.67
0.00
-
-
3.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Fredericia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Fredericia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.87
0.60
0.80
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.75
1.50
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.85
0.36
0.82
0.67
0.89
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Fredericia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Friday Etim29%
Oscar Buch27%
Sofus Johannesen27%
Jonatan Lindekilde24%
Agon Mucolli19%
Gustav Marcussen14%
Felix Winther11%
Svenn Crone10%
Patrick Egelund7%
Anders Dahl6%
Emilio Simonsen5%
William Madsen5%
Eskild Dall4%
Jeppe Kudsk4%
Jakob Jessen3%
Moses Opondo0%
Andreas Pyndt0%
Kristian Pedersen0%
Mattias Lamhauge0%
Valdemar Birksø0%
Etienne Green0%
Frederik Rieper0%
Daniel Kristjansson0%
Elias Hansborg0%
Daniel Haarbo0%
Martin Huldahl0%
Malthe Ladefoged0%
Adam Nygaard0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daniel Haarbo33%
Jeppe Kudsk26%
Emilio Simonsen25%
Friday Etim21%
Svenn Crone20%
Felix Winther19%
Moses Opondo12%
Oscar Buch9%
Eskild Dall9%
Andreas Pyndt7%
Adam Nygaard7%
Agon Mucolli6%
Daniel Kristjansson6%
Jakob Jessen6%
William Madsen5%
Sofus Johannesen5%
Gustav Marcussen3%
Frederik Rieper3%
Patrick Egelund0%
Kristian Pedersen0%
Mattias Lamhauge0%
Valdemar Birksø0%
Etienne Green0%
Anders Dahl0%
Elias Hansborg0%
Martin Huldahl0%
Jonatan Lindekilde0%
Malthe Ladefoged0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daniel Kristjansson19%
Emilio Simonsen15%
Jakob Jessen12%
Jonatan Lindekilde12%
Andreas Pyndt11%
Sofus Johannesen9%
Eskild Dall9%
Felix Winther7%
Friday Etim7%
Gustav Marcussen7%
Patrick Egelund7%
Agon Mucolli6%
Moses Opondo6%
Anders Dahl6%
William Madsen5%
Oscar Buch5%
Adam Nygaard4%
Svenn Crone0%
Kristian Pedersen0%
Mattias Lamhauge0%
Valdemar Birksø0%
Etienne Green0%
Frederik Rieper0%
Elias Hansborg0%
Daniel Haarbo0%
Jeppe Kudsk0%
Martin Huldahl0%
Malthe Ladefoged0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Friday Etim43%
Oscar Buch23%
Sofus Johannesen23%
Jonatan Lindekilde18%
Agon Mucolli12%
Emilio Simonsen10%
Felix Winther4%
Moses Opondo0%
Patrick Egelund0%
Andreas Pyndt0%
Svenn Crone0%
Gustav Marcussen0%
Kristian Pedersen0%
Mattias Lamhauge0%
Valdemar Birksø0%
Etienne Green0%
Anders Dahl0%
Eskild Dall0%
William Madsen0%
Frederik Rieper0%
Daniel Kristjansson0%
Elias Hansborg0%
Daniel Haarbo0%
Jeppe Kudsk0%
Martin Huldahl0%
Jakob Jessen0%
Malthe Ladefoged0%
Adam Nygaard0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (24)
€10m
VEJ (22)
€9m
FF (17)
€8m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
VF (3)
€1m
AC (3)
€1m
Hillerød's squad is €4m less valuable than FC Fredericia's (€4m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEJ (7)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
FF (5)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
AC (1)
€0m
Hillerød and FC Fredericia have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FF (5)
€3m
VEJ (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
Hillerød's midfield is €1m less valuable than FC Fredericia's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
VEJ (9)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
VF (0)
€0m
Hillerød's defence is €2m less valuable than FC Fredericia's (€2m vs €3m).
Denmark: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vejle
Hvidovre
Hobro
Aarhus Fremad
Vendsyssel FF
Aalborg
AB Copenhagen
Kolding IF
Esbjerg
HB Koge