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Hillerød vs Hobro Result & Analysis

Date: 16/08/2025
Time: 12:00
Final 0-2
Hillerød
Hillerød
Vs
60%
23%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hobro
Hobro
Denmark: 1. Division
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hillerød win✗ Miss
60.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hobro win✓ Hit
16.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

HillerødHillerød

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-530W00D52W24L31W21W22D21W50W13LH·HB 25/04A·HOB02/05H·B 908/05A·ROS16/05H·VEN22/05H·MID19/07H·AAL26/07A·B 901/08A·VIK05/08A·AAR09/08
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.971.272.071.401.871.13
vs Stronger (1)1.004.001.004.00--
vs Similar (23)1.871.302.091.181.671.42
vs Weaker (6)2.500.672.331.332.670.00
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Hobro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HobroHobro

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-505L00D11D02L21W02L00D11D42W14LA·B 925/04H·HIL02/05A·ROS09/05A·VEN16/05H·HB 22/05A·HB 18/07H·MID27/07A·AAL01/08A·SKO05/08H·B 908/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.631.311.311.001.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.001.711.301.600.791.79
vs Weaker (6)1.671.331.330.332.002.33
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.7%
Under 1.5
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.1%
Under 2.5
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.6%
Under 3.5
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.9%
No
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
10.0%
1-0
9.2%
3-0
6.8%
3-1
6.6%
0-0
6.1%
1-2
4.9%
Hillerød goals ↓
Hobro goals →
01234
06.1%4.0%2.4%0.8%0.2%
19.2%11%4.9%1.6%0.4%
210%10.0%4.9%1.6%0.4%
36.8%6.6%3.2%1.1%0.3%
43.4%3.3%1.6%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hillerød goals (down), columns = Hobro goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Lyngby
1.88
AC Horsens
1.69
Esbjerg
1.62
Hillerød
1.56
Aalborg
1.44
Hvidovre
1.44
Aarhus Fremad
1.38
Hobro
1.31
HB Koge
1.25
Kolding IF
1.19
B 93
1.16
Middelfart
0.47
Hillerød is 0.25 points better than Hobro in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 1.31).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Lyngby
2.16
Aarhus Fremad
1.62
Aalborg
1.56
Esbjerg
1.41
B 93
1.38
Hvidovre
1.34
Hillerød
1.31
AC Horsens
1.31
HB Koge
1.31
Hobro
1.25
Kolding IF
1.16
Middelfart
1.00
Hillerød is 0.06 goals better than Hobro in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.25).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
AC Horsens
0.84
Lyngby
1.12
Aarhus Fremad
1.16
Hvidovre
1.22
Kolding IF
1.25
Hobro
1.34
Hillerød
1.34
Esbjerg
1.34
Aalborg
1.47
HB Koge
1.50
B 93
1.81
Middelfart
2.41
Hillerød and Hobro are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.34).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

HillerødHillerød

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D22D11D01L11D12L21W10W02LH·HB 25/04A·HOB02/05H·B 908/05A·ROS16/05H·VEN22/05H·MID19/07H·AAL26/07A·B 901/08A·VIK05/08A·AAR09/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.730.870.930.870.53
vs Stronger (1)0.002.000.002.00--
vs Similar (23)0.870.740.910.820.830.67
vs Weaker (6)1.000.501.001.001.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Hobro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HobroHobro

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L00D00D02L10W01L00D10W20W12LA·B 925/04H·HIL02/05A·ROS09/05A·VEN16/05H·HB 22/05A·HB 18/07H·MID27/07A·AAL01/08A·SKO05/08H·B 908/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.830.690.690.290.94
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.380.830.600.800.210.86
vs Weaker (6)0.830.831.000.330.671.33
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

HillerødHillerød

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D30W13L30W10W10W00D40W11DH·HB 25/04A·HOB02/05H·B 908/05A·ROS16/05H·VEN22/05H·MID19/07H·AAL26/07A·B 901/08A·VIK05/08A·AAR09/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.531.200.471.000.60
vs Stronger (1)1.002.001.002.00--
vs Similar (23)1.000.571.180.360.830.75
vs Weaker (6)1.500.171.330.331.670.00
Clean sheet %67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Hobro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HobroHobro

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D11D00D11D01L00D01L22D02LA·B 925/04H·HIL02/05A·ROS09/05A·VEN16/05H·HB 22/05A·HB 18/07H·MID27/07A·AAL01/08A·SKO05/08H·B 908/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.800.620.620.710.94
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.620.880.700.800.570.93
vs Weaker (6)0.830.500.330.001.331.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LYN (22)
€13m
AH (27)
€10m
AAL (24)
€10m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
Hillerød's squad is €3m less valuable than Hobro's (€4m vs €7m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (9)
€4m
LYN (5)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
Hillerød and Hobro have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LYN (8)
€5m
AH (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
Hillerød and Hobro have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
LYN (9)
€5m
AH (12)
€4m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
Hillerød's defence is €1m less valuable than Hobro's (€2m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
HIL wins
5
Draws
2
HOB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Hillerød vs Hobro · H/A from HIL
DateH/AGameScore
02/05/25AHobro Vs HIL0-0
04/04/25HHIL Vs Hobro2-0
11/11/24AHobro Vs HIL2-2
21/07/24HHIL Vs Hobro2-2
13/11/23AHobro Vs HIL0-0
04/08/23HHIL Vs Hobro0-1
02/06/23HHIL Vs Hobro0-0
10/04/23AHobro Vs HIL2-1

HillerødHillerød

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/08/25AAarhus Fremad Vs HIL3-1
05/08/25AViktoria Vs HIL0-5
01/08/25AB 93 Vs HIL1-2
26/07/25HHIL Vs Aalborg2-2
19/07/25HHIL Vs Middelfart2-1
22/05/25HHIL Vs Vendsyssel FF3-1
16/05/25ARoskilde Vs HIL4-2
08/05/25HHIL Vs B 935-2
02/05/25AHobro Vs HIL0-0
25/04/25HHIL Vs HB Koge3-0

HobroHobro

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/08/25HHOB Vs B 931-4
05/08/25ASkovsgård Vs HOB2-4
01/08/25AAalborg Vs HOB1-1
27/07/25HHOB Vs Middelfart0-0
18/07/25AHB Koge Vs HOB2-0
22/05/25HHOB Vs HB Koge2-1
16/05/25AVendsyssel FF Vs HOB2-0
09/05/25ARoskilde Vs HOB1-1
02/05/25HHOB Vs Hillerød0-0
25/04/25AB 93 Vs HOB5-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Hillerød
Hillerød
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWL1.74
HomeWWWWD1.92
AwayDLWWL1.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%54%42%
AVG goals3.043.332.77
Over 1.5 %82%92%73%
Over 2.5 %58%62%54%
Over 3.5 %42%42%42%
Scored1.862.041.69
Conceded1.181.291.08
BTTS56%58%54%
Clean Sheet34%33%35%
Corners---
Cards---
Hobro
Hobro
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDWL1.24
HomeWDWDL1.39
AwayDLLDW1.11
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%35%30%
AVG goals2.943.002.89
Over 1.5 %82%74%89%
Over 2.5 %52%61%44%
Over 3.5 %34%39%30%
Scored1.341.431.26
Conceded1.601.571.63
BTTS60%70%52%
Clean Sheet20%22%19%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LyngbyLyngby3260
56%
1.9
6936+33
3.3
91%
69%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
3552.21.1
-
2AC HorsensAC Horsens3254
47%
1.7
4227+15
2.2
56%
41%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.30.8
-
3EsbjergEsbjerg3252
47%
1.6
4543+2
2.8
75%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.41.3
-
4HillerødHillerød3250
41%
1.6
4243-1
2.7
81%
59%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.31.3
-
5HvidovreHvidovre3246
34%
1.4
4339+4
2.6
81%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.31.2
-
6AalborgAalborg3246
38%
1.4
5047+3
3.0
78%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
2261.61.5
-
7Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad3244
34%
1.4
5237+15
2.8
72%
53%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.61.2
-
8HobroHobro3242
34%
1.3
4043-3
2.6
72%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.21.3
-
9HB KogeHB Koge3240
34%
1.2
4248-6
2.8
81%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.31.5
-
10Kolding IFKolding IF3238
31%
1.2
3740-3
2.4
72%
50%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.21.2
-
11B 93B 933237
31%
1.2
4458-14
3.2
81%
66%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
12MiddelfartMiddelfart3215
9%
0.5
3277-45
3.4
78%
72%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.4
-
Denmark: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →

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