The encounter between Hillerød and Hvidovre is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win. Home advantage is modest, with Hillerød averaging 1.23 goals scored and 0.85 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Hvidovre, on the road, averages 1.36 goals scored and 0.93 conceded. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a compact game, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.6 % probability. Probabilities for the match result are 38 % for a home win, 31 % for a draw, and 30 % for an away win. The model’s selection includes an Under 3.5 with an 80.5 % chance. Recent form offers no clear edge: Hillerød come off a loss, Hvidovre a draw. All figures are presented as percentages, and every selection is named with its probability.
Results analysis
Hillerød’s recent form, a mixed sequence of losses and wins, ended on a defeat that left them eager for a turnaround, while Hvidovre’s five-match run of draws and victories had them looking to extend a positive streak. The model’s favourite, a home win, was backed with a 38 % probability and proved correct as Hillerød edged Hvidovre 2-1. The predicted total of 2.3 goals materialised in a 2-goal finish, the most likely scoreline being 1-1 at 14.6 %. The model’s sole selection, Under 3.5, hit with an 80.5 % probability, confirming the overall accuracy of the predictions.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hillerød win✓ Hit
38.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre win✗ Miss
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hillerød
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.40
1.21
0.93
1.31
1.81
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.25
1.39
1.23
0.85
1.27
1.87
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Hvidovre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hvidovre
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.23
1.47
1.53
1.40
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.41
1.19
1.46
1.46
1.36
0.93
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.50
2.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.5%
Under 1.5
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.6%
Under 2.5
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.5%
Under 3.5
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.2%
No
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
11.7%
1-0
11.2%
0-1
9.6%
2-1 ✓
8.0%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
7.0%
0-2
5.8%
Hillerød goals ↓
Hvidovre goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.6%
5.8%
2.0%
0.5%
1
11%
15%
7.0%
2.5%
0.6%
2
7.6%
8.0%
4.2%
1.5%
0.4%
3
3.1%
3.3%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hillerød goals (down), columns = Hvidovre goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lyngby
1.88
AC Horsens
1.69
Esbjerg
1.62
Hillerød
1.56
Aalborg
1.44
Hvidovre
1.44
Aarhus Fremad
1.38
Hobro
1.31
HB Koge
1.25
Kolding IF
1.19
B 93
1.16
Middelfart
0.47
Hillerød is 0.12 points better than Hvidovre in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 1.44).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Lyngby
2.16
Aarhus Fremad
1.62
Aalborg
1.56
Esbjerg
1.41
B 93
1.38
Hvidovre
1.34
HB Koge
1.31
Hillerød
1.31
AC Horsens
1.31
Hobro
1.25
Kolding IF
1.16
Middelfart
1.00
Hillerød is 0.03 goals worse than Hvidovre in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.34).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
AC Horsens
0.84
Lyngby
1.12
Aarhus Fremad
1.16
Hvidovre
1.22
Kolding IF
1.25
Hobro
1.34
Hillerød
1.34
Esbjerg
1.34
Aalborg
1.47
HB Koge
1.50
B 93
1.81
Middelfart
2.41
Hillerød is 0.12 goals worse than Hvidovre in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 1.22).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hillerød
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.71
0.29
0.44
0.88
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.57
0.57
0.77
0.23
0.40
0.87
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Hvidovre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hvidovre
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
0.87
0.60
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.78
0.41
0.92
0.46
0.64
0.36
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hillerød
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.80
0.50
0.64
0.88
0.94
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.68
0.82
0.46
0.62
0.87
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Hvidovre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hvidovre
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.60
0.93
0.80
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.78
0.54
1.00
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Denmark: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →