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Hillerød vs Naestved Result & Analysis

Date: 06/11/2023
Time: 18:00
Final 1-0
Hillerød
Hillerød
Vs
47%
28%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Naestved
Naestved
Denmark: 1. Division
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hillerød win✓ Hit
46.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Naestved win✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

HillerødHillerød

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-620W61W03L22D01L22D00D30W11D31WH·VEN19/08A·FC 23/08A·AAL27/08H·SON01/09H·B 915/09A·NAE24/09H·AC 29/09A·B 906/10H·FC 20/10A·AC 27/10
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.401.000.931.531.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)1.041.360.851.081.251.67
vs Weaker (5)2.401.602.000.002.672.67
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Naestved) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NaestvedNaestved

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D01L03L33D11D22D14L10W23L11DA·AAL18/08H·B 922/08A·AC 25/08H·HB 04/09A·VEN17/09H·HIL24/09A·FC 01/10H·HOB08/10A·HB 22/10H·VEN29/10
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.272.101.471.871.072.33
vs Stronger (9)0.892.111.002.000.752.25
vs Similar (16)1.562.121.751.751.382.50
vs Weaker (5)1.002.001.502.000.672.00
Clean sheet %7% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.0%
Under 1.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.2%
Under 2.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.7%
Under 3.5
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.1%
No
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-0 ✓
10.8%
0-0
9.3%
2-1
9.2%
2-0
9.0%
0-1
7.0%
1-2
6.3%
2-2
4.7%
Hillerød goals ↓
Naestved goals →
01234
09.3%7.0%4.2%1.5%0.4%
111%14%6.3%2.2%0.6%
29.0%9.2%4.7%1.6%0.4%
34.5%4.6%2.4%0.8%0.2%
41.7%1.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hillerød goals (down), columns = Naestved goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sonderjyske
2.12
Aalborg
2.03
Hillerød
1.53
Kolding IF
1.53
Hobro
1.47
FC Fredericia
1.47
AC Horsens
1.34
Vendsyssel FF
1.34
B 93
1.22
HB Koge
1.06
Naestved
0.84
FC Helsingor
0.50
Hillerød is 0.69 points better than Naestved in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 0.84).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sonderjyske
2.22
Aalborg
2.06
Hillerød
1.81
Kolding IF
1.62
FC Fredericia
1.44
B 93
1.41
Vendsyssel FF
1.41
HB Koge
1.34
Hobro
1.31
AC Horsens
1.16
Naestved
1.03
FC Helsingor
1.00
Hillerød is 0.78 goals better than Naestved in terms of goals scored per game (1.81 vs 1.03).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sonderjyske
0.91
Aalborg
1.19
Hobro
1.25
Hillerød
1.28
FC Fredericia
1.31
AC Horsens
1.41
Kolding IF
1.44
Vendsyssel FF
1.56
Naestved
1.66
B 93
1.72
FC Helsingor
2.03
HB Koge
2.06
Hillerød is 0.38 goals better than Naestved in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.66).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

HillerødHillerød

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W20W01L10W00D01L00D00D10W11DH·VEN19/08A·FC 23/08A·AAL27/08H·SON01/09H·B 915/09A·NAE24/09H·AC 29/09A·B 906/10H·FC 20/10A·AC 27/10
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.430.400.270.330.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.240.480.310.310.170.67
vs Weaker (5)1.000.201.000.001.000.33
Clean sheet %67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Naestved) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NaestvedNaestved

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L01L21W11D10W01L00D10W01LA·AAL18/08H·B 922/08A·AC 25/08H·HB 04/09A·VEN17/09H·HIL24/09A·FC 01/10H·HOB08/10A·HB 22/10H·VEN29/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.900.600.930.400.87
vs Stronger (9)0.440.780.600.800.250.75
vs Similar (16)0.560.880.621.000.500.75
vs Weaker (5)0.401.200.501.000.331.33
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naestved over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naestved over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naestved over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

HillerødHillerød

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W41W02L12L01L21W00D30W01L20WH·VEN19/08A·FC 23/08A·AAL27/08H·SON01/09H·B 915/09A·NAE24/09H·AC 29/09A·B 906/10H·FC 20/10A·AC 27/10
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.970.600.671.201.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.800.880.540.771.081.00
vs Weaker (5)1.401.401.000.001.672.33
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Naestved) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NaestvedNaestved

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D02L12L00D12L13L10W13L10WA·AAL18/08H·B 922/08A·AC 25/08H·HB 04/09A·VEN17/09H·HIL24/09A·FC 01/10H·HOB08/10A·HB 22/10H·VEN29/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.200.870.930.671.47
vs Stronger (9)0.441.330.401.200.501.50
vs Similar (16)1.001.251.120.750.881.75
vs Weaker (5)0.600.801.001.000.330.67
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Hillerød) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hillerød over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hillerød over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naestved over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naestved over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naestved over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.0%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SON (26)
€13m
AH (27)
€10m
AAL (24)
€10m
FF (17)
€8m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
VF (3)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (9)
€4m
SON (6)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
FF (5)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SON (7)
€3m
FF (5)
€3m
AH (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SON (13)
€6m
AAL (12)
€6m
AH (12)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
VF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
HIL wins
1
Draws
1
NAE wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Hillerød vs Naestved · H/A from HIL
DateH/AGameScore
24/09/23ANaestved Vs HIL2-2
11/03/23HHIL Vs Naestved2-0
02/10/22ANaestved Vs HIL2-0

HillerødHillerød

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/10/23AAC Horsens Vs HIL1-3
20/10/23HHIL Vs FC Fredericia1-1
06/10/23AB 93 Vs HIL0-3
29/09/23HHIL Vs AC Horsens0-0
24/09/23ANaestved Vs HIL2-2
15/09/23HHIL Vs B 930-1
01/09/23HHIL Vs Sonderjyske2-2
27/08/23AAalborg Vs HIL3-0
23/08/23AFC Helsingor Vs HIL1-6
19/08/23HHIL Vs Vendsyssel FF2-0

NaestvedNaestved

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/10/23HNAE Vs Vendsyssel FF1-1
22/10/23AHB Koge Vs NAE3-2
08/10/23HNAE Vs Hobro1-0
01/10/23AFC Fredericia Vs NAE4-1
24/09/23HNAE Vs Hillerød2-2
17/09/23AVendsyssel FF Vs NAE1-1
04/09/23HNAE Vs HB Koge3-3
25/08/23AAC Horsens Vs NAE3-0
22/08/23HNAE Vs B 930-1
18/08/23AAalborg Vs NAE1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Hillerød
Hillerød
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWDW1.24
HomeWDLDD1.43
AwayWLDWW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %35%39%30%
AVG goals2.852.303.39
Over 1.5 %80%74%87%
Over 2.5 %48%35%61%
Over 3.5 %33%22%43%
Scored1.281.131.43
Conceded1.571.171.96
BTTS46%35%57%
Clean Sheet26%39%13%
Corners---
Cards---
Naestved
Naestved
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 5 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLD1.11
HomeLDDWD1.39
AwayDLDLL0.83
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%35%17%
AVG goals3.153.303.00
Over 1.5 %85%87%83%
Over 2.5 %59%61%57%
Over 3.5 %39%43%35%
Scored1.461.831.09
Conceded1.701.481.91
BTTS61%61%61%
Clean Sheet24%30%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SonderjyskeSonderjyske3268
62%
2.1
7129+42
3.1
84%
62%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
3362.20.9
-
2AalborgAalborg3265
59%
2.0
6638+28
3.2
84%
69%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
2262.11.2
-
3HillerødHillerød3249
41%
1.5
5841+17
3.1
78%
59%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.81.3
-
4Kolding IFKolding IF3249
44%
1.5
5246+6
3.1
78%
66%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.61.4
-
5FC FredericiaFC Fredericia3247
41%
1.5
4642+4
2.8
75%
53%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
2331.41.3
-
6HobroHobro3247
44%
1.5
4240+2
2.6
72%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.31.2
-
7Vendsyssel FFVendsyssel FF3243
34%
1.3
4550-5
3.0
75%
53%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.6
-
8AC HorsensAC Horsens3243
38%
1.3
3745-8
2.6
72%
44%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.21.4
-
9B 93B 933239
34%
1.2
4555-10
3.1
75%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.7
-
10HB KogeHB Koge3234
28%
1.1
4366-23
3.4
81%
59%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.32.1
-
11NaestvedNaestved3227
16%
0.8
3353-20
2.7
69%
47%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
12FC HelsingorFC Helsingor3216
6%
0.5
3265-33
3.0
75%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
Denmark: 1. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →

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