HJK Helsinki is expected to emerge victorious against Gnistan, with a predicted match outcome of a home win. This storyline is further supported by HJK Helsinki's recent form, having come off a win against FF Jaro. The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.0 goals and a most likely total of 2 goals.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 11.8%. HJK Helsinki is likely to continue its strong home form, scoring 1.5 goals per match at home, while conceding just 0.83 goals. Gnistan, however, has struggled on the road, scoring 1.25 goals away from home and conceding 1.62 goals.
The model's selections include Over 1.5, with a probability of 81.8% and a 1% edge, Home or Away at 74.5%, and Home or Draw at 73.1%. The probabilities for the match outcome are: Home win 48%, Draw 26%, and Away win 27%.
Results analysis
Gnistan’s 3-2 victory over HJK Helsinki shocked the pre-match favourite, the model’s home-win call, which had a 48 % probability. The upset ended HJK’s recent run of losses and drew them out of a winless streak, while Gnistan extended a two-game winning run. The final score of 2-3 confirmed the away win. The model’s selection was wrong. Among the suggested picks, Under 7.5 hit at 98.7 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.2 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals missed at 96.9 %, Under 6.5 hit at 96.4 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 95.9 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 95.2 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 93.0 %, and Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 91.7 %.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
HJK Helsinki win✗ Miss
47.7%
Avg Implied 58.1% · @ 1.59
Edge
-10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.64
Dafabet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.61
1xBet
1.61
Draw✗ Miss
25.5%
Avg Implied 22.3% · @ 4.15
Edge
+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.45
Dafabet
4.40
1xBet
4.20
BetVictor
4.20
Superbet
4.20
Gnistan win✓ Hit
26.8%
Avg Implied 19.6% · @ 4.73
Edge
+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.93
Marathonbet
4.90
1xBet
4.82
Dafabet
4.80
Bet365
4.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
HJK Helsinki
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.20
2.14
1.14
2.06
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.64
1.57
1.29
1.86
2.00
1.29
vs Weaker (16)
2.50
0.88
3.00
0.43
2.11
1.22
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Gnistan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gnistan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.67
1.86
2.07
1.31
1.31
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
2.00
0.50
2.50
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (23)
1.78
1.57
2.40
1.90
1.31
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.9%
@ 1.14+0.1%
Under 1.5
18.1%
@ 5.11-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.16
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Under
Pinnacle
5.58
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
Marathonbet
5.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.7%
@ 1.48-4.1%
Under 2.5
41.3%
@ 2.50+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.52
Betano
1.52
888Sport
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.61
10Bet
2.55
BetVictor
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
36.3%
@ 2.22-5.8%
Under 3.5
63.7%
@ 1.62+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.30
SBO
2.26
888Sport
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Betano
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.63
SBO
1.63
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.0%
@ 1.53+0.5%
No
39.0%
@ 2.34-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.57
Unibet
1.56
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.54
1xBet
1.53
No
William Hil
2.40
BetVictor
2.40
888Sport
2.40
10Bet
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%@ 7.80+6.1%
2-1
9.5%@ 7.37+3.5%
2-0
7.4%@ 8.79+2.3%
1-0
7.3%@ 9.01+2.4%
1-2
6.9%@ 13.62+3.6%
2-2
6.1%@ 11.87+2.3%
0-0
5.8%@ 15.55+3.0%
3-1
5.6%@ 10.35+1.3%
HJK Helsinki goals ↓
Gnistan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.8%
5.0%
3.9%
1.7%
0.5%
1
7.3%
12%
6.9%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.4%
9.5%
6.1%
2.6%
0.8%
3
4.3%
5.6%
3.6%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.9%
2.5%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = HJK Helsinki goals (down), columns = Gnistan goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
1.95
Inter Turku
1.91
HJK Helsinki
1.68
Gnistan
1.64
AC Oulu
1.55
VPS
1.50
Lahti
1.45
Turku PS
1.41
Ilves
1.14
SJK
0.86
FF Jaro
0.68
Mariehamn
0.64
HJK Helsinki is 0.05 points better than Gnistan in terms of average points per game (1.68 vs 1.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.73
HJK Helsinki
1.64
Gnistan
1.64
Ilves
1.55
VPS
1.32
Inter Turku
1.32
Turku PS
1.27
Lahti
1.18
SJK
1.14
AC Oulu
1.14
FF Jaro
0.82
Mariehamn
0.77
HJK Helsinki and Gnistan are level in goals scored per game (both 1.64).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.73
Lahti
0.86
VPS
1.00
KuPS
1.05
Turku PS
1.05
AC Oulu
1.14
HJK Helsinki
1.23
Gnistan
1.32
SJK
1.50
Ilves
1.68
Mariehamn
1.95
FF Jaro
2.00
HJK Helsinki is 0.09 goals better than Gnistan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.23 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
HJK Helsinki is 10.7 percentage points better than Gnistan in terms of average possession (55% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
HJK Helsinki
For 5.0 · Against 3.3 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.9 · Against 9.5 · Total 18.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Gnistan
For 3.0 · Against 7.0 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 11.4 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
HJK Helsinki
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
8.2
11.3
1.2
1.3
1.1
16.6
16.5
16.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
7.8
6.4
10.2
1.0
1.4
0.6
14.8
15.1
14.2
vs Weaker (27)
11.4
10.6
12.2
1.3
1.2
1.4
18.6
18.4
18.8
% over line
57%
42%
78%
12%
12%
12%
19%
25%
11%
% under line
43%
58%
22%
88%
88%
88%
81%
75%
89%
This opponent (Gnistan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gnistan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.4
10.6
12.3
2.1
2.1
2.2
22.6
21.1
24.2
vs Stronger (9)
12.5
11.8
14.0
1.6
2.2
0.8
18.3
19.5
16.0
vs Similar (41)
11.1
10.2
12.0
2.3
2.0
2.5
23.8
21.8
25.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
70%
64%
77%
30%
28%
32%
59%
50%
69%
% under line
30%
36%
23%
70%
72%
68%
41%
50%
31%
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
11.5
Inter Turku
10.7
Mariehamn
10.3
SJK
10.1
Ilves
10.1
AC Oulu
10.1
FF Jaro
10.1
HJK Helsinki
9.9
KuPS
9.9
VPS
9.8
Lahti
9.8
Turku PS
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lahti
4.5
Turku PS
4.3
Gnistan
4.0
AC Oulu
3.9
SJK
3.9
Mariehamn
3.9
Ilves
3.8
Inter Turku
3.8
VPS
3.6
FF Jaro
3.3
KuPS
3.2
HJK Helsinki
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SJK
23.8
Inter Turku
23.3
Ilves
23.2
Lahti
23.1
AC Oulu
22.7
Gnistan
22.5
VPS
22.4
KuPS
22.0
Mariehamn
21.9
Turku PS
21.8
HJK Helsinki
20.5
FF Jaro
18.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
41.3%
@ 1.50-20.1%
Under 9.5
58.7%
@ 2.38+20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.56
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.48
1xBet
1.45
Under
Pinnacle
2.51
Marathonbet
2.47
1xBet
2.38
Betano
2.37
Superbet
2.35
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
40.3%
@ 1.76-11.9%
Under 3.5
59.7%
@ 1.92+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.76
Under
Superbet
1.92
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
40.0%
Under 21.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
HJK Helsinki or Draw✗ Miss
73.2%
Avg Implied 80.3% · @ 1.16
Edge
-7.2%
48%
25%
27%
covers HJK Helsinki + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.21
BetVictor
1.18
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
HJK Helsinki or Gnistan✓ Hit
74.5%
Avg Implied 78.2% · @ 1.19
Edge
-3.7%
48%
25%
27%
covers HJK Helsinki + Gnistan
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Draw or Gnistan✓ Hit
52.3%
Avg Implied 41.4% · @ 2.25
Edge
+10.9%
48%
25%
27%
covers Draw + Gnistan
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.32
888Sport
2.30
William Hil
2.30
1xBet
2.26
Marathonbet
2.26
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
HJK Helsinki over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.9%
@ 1.08-2.9%
Under
17.1%
@ 6.53+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
Under
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
1xBet
6.50
Betfair
6.50
888Sport
6.50
HJK Helsinki over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
52.6%
@ 1.50-9.6%
Under
47.4%
@ 2.47+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.53
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.50
888Sport
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.60
Bet365
2.50
BetVictor
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Marathonbet
2.49
HJK Helsinki over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
26.0%
@ 2.54-10.6%
Under
74.0%
@ 1.47+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.62
Betano
2.55
1xBet
2.55
Superbet
2.55
Under
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
HJK Helsinki over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.3%
@ 4.92-8.5%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.14+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.00
Superbet
5.00
888Sport
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Under
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
888Sport
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Gnistan over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.3%
@ 1.37+4.9%
Under
27.7%
@ 2.84-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.37
Superbet
1.37
Under
Pinnacle
2.95
10Bet
2.95
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.87
Gnistan over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
36.7%
@ 2.85+4.0%
Under
63.3%
@ 1.38-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.98
BetVictor
2.88
Unibet
2.88
Marathonbet
2.88
Under
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
10Bet
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Gnistan over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
13.9%
@ 7.03+0.7%
Under
86.1%
@ 1.07-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
888Sport
7.50
Marathonbet
7.40
1xBet
7.40
BetVictor
7.00
Under
Betano
1.10
Betfair
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Gnistan over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 18.81-1.0%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.01+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
888Sport
23.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to HJK Helsinki, so a minus line means HJK Helsinki give that many goals of a start and Gnistan receive them. At -1, HJK Helsinki must win by two or more to land; a one-goal HJK Helsinki win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (HJK Helsinki)Actual: Gnistan
HJK Helsinki -2
11.7%
@ 4.47-8.2%
Draw -2
14.8%
@ 4.58-4.7%
Gnistan +2
73.5%
@ 1.47+12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
4.75
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.40
Marathonbet
4.35
Draw
Marathonbet
4.80
Bet365
4.75
Superbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Away
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.49
Unibet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Handicap -1 (HJK Helsinki)Actual: Gnistan
HJK Helsinki -1
26.5%
@ 2.44-9.9%
Draw -1
21.1%
@ 3.74-2.7%
Gnistan +1
52.3%
@ 2.24+12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Superbet
2.45
Marathonbet
2.42
Bet365
2.40
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
10Bet
3.60
Away
Marathonbet
2.26
10Bet
2.25
Superbet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Unibet
2.23
Handicap +1 (HJK Helsinki)Actual: Draw
HJK Helsinki +1
73.2%
@ 1.15-2.8%
Draw +1
15.1%
@ 6.10+0.8%
Gnistan -1
11.8%
@ 8.88+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
6.25
Marathonbet
4.55
Away
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
9.50
Marathonbet
6.15
Handicap +2 (HJK Helsinki)Actual: HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki +2
88.2%
@ 1.04-2.3%
Draw +2
7.8%
@ 15.00+1.6%
Gnistan -2
3.9%
@ 29.00+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.04
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Away
Bet365
29.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
HJK Helsinki
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.47
1.07
0.43
1.06
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.64
0.57
0.71
1.14
0.57
vs Weaker (16)
1.25
0.31
1.57
0.14
1.00
0.44
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Gnistan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gnistan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.77
0.71
1.00
0.62
0.56
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.29
0.25
1.50
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.61
0.90
0.80
0.69
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.7%
@ 1.24-0.9%
Under 0.5
26.3%
@ 3.65+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Under
William Hil
3.90
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
10Bet
3.70
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
34.8%
@ 2.17-8.2%
Under 1.5
65.2%
@ 1.64+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.27
SBO
2.26
Pinnacle
2.24
Marathonbet
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Under
10Bet
1.70
William Hil
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
Superbet
1.64
SBO
1.63
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.7%
@ 4.75-5.8%
Under 2.5
86.3%
@ 1.15+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.75
William Hil
4.75
Under
Superbet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.15
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
HJK Helsinki over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
56.2%
@ 1.53-4.7%
Under
43.8%
@ 2.38+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.54
Superbet
1.53
Unibet
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.50
1xBet
2.43
10Bet
2.40
Superbet
2.35
Unibet
2.33
HJK Helsinki over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
19.8%
@ 3.51-6.5%
Under
80.2%
@ 1.25+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
Superbet
3.50
10Bet
3.45
1xBet
3.30
Under
1xBet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
HJK Helsinki over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.8%
@ 8.78-5.8%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.04+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.10
Superbet
9.00
Betano
8.50
10Bet
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Gnistan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
40.9%
@ 2.30+0.6%
Under
59.1%
@ 1.56-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.44
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.31
Unibet
2.30
Superbet
2.27
Under
10Bet
1.60
1xBet
1.57
Superbet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.55
Gnistan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.3%
@ 7.60-3.9%
Under
91.7%
@ 1.06+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.50
1xBet
7.80
Superbet
7.60
Betano
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
Gnistan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 29.00-98.2%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
29.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
HJK Helsinki
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.73
1.07
0.71
1.00
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.93
0.71
1.14
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (16)
1.25
0.56
1.43
0.29
1.11
0.78
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Gnistan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gnistan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.90
1.14
1.07
0.69
0.75
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.71
0.25
1.00
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (23)
1.00
0.96
1.50
1.10
0.62
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.5%
@ 1.14-2.3%
Under 0.5
20.5%
@ 5.11+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.25
1xBet
5.25
Betano
5.20
Superbet
5.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
46.4%
@ 1.72-7.8%
Under 1.5
53.6%
@ 2.04+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.75
Bet365
1.73
888Sport
1.73
Unibet
1.71
Superbet
1.71
Under
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.08
Superbet
2.02
888Sport
2.00
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
19.8%
@ 3.20-9.3%
Under 2.5
80.2%
@ 1.31+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.30
888Sport
3.30
Superbet
3.15
1xBet
3.10
Under
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
HJK Helsinki over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
59.3%
@ 1.35-9.1%
Under
40.7%
@ 2.93+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.33
Under
1xBet
3.00
Betano
2.95
Superbet
2.85
HJK Helsinki over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
25.3%
@ 2.63-9.9%
Under
74.7%
@ 1.43+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.75
Betano
2.62
Marathonbet
2.61
1xBet
2.55
Under
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.42
Superbet
1.40
HJK Helsinki over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.0%
@ 6.13-8.1%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.09+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
6.50
1xBet
6.10
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Gnistan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
47.3%
@ 1.92-1.0%
Under
52.7%
@ 1.79+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
Betano
1.91
Under
Betano
1.83
Superbet
1.80
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
Gnistan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
14.2%
@ 5.59-2.3%
Under
85.8%
@ 1.11+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.95
1xBet
5.70
Superbet
5.50
Betano
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
Gnistan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
3.1%
@ 14.50-3.4%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.01+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.4%
✗ Miss
Under 6.5
96.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.2%
1.04
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.0%
1.09
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
-
-
+8.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.7%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
91.1%
1.08
Pinnacle
1.11
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Superbet
1.08
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
89.7%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
888Sport
1.14
Superbet
1.14
+8.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.3%
1.15
Superbet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.15
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.1%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Betfair
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
888Sport
1.08
-0.7%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.8%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
-
+2.3%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
82.9%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
-2.9%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.9%
1.14
Pinnacle
1.16
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
80.7%
1.24
Pinnacle
1.27
Betano
1.26
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+5.7%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.2%
1.31
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
+9.3%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.2%
1.25
1xBet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
+6.5%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.5%
1.14
888Sport
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
-2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
77.6%
1.42
Superbet
1.42
-
-
-
-
+14.1%
-
Under 23.5 fouls
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
74.7%
1.43
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.42
Superbet
1.40
-
+9.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.5%
1.19
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
-3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
74.0%
1.47
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
+10.6%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.7%
1.24
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
73.5%
1.47
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.49
Unibet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
+12.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
73.2%
1.16
Betano
1.21
BetVictor
1.18
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
-7.2%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
73.2%
1.15
Unibet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-2.8%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
72.3%
1.37
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.37
Superbet
1.37
+4.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
HJK Helsinki
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
T. Pukki33%
David Ezeh33%
M. Borchers29%
A. Ring20%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster20%
Mihailo Bogićević20%
Toivo Mero20%
V. Tikkanen17%
M. Ylitolva14%
Till Cissokho0%
L. Lappalainen0%
Lucas Lingman0%
J. Kallinen0%
L. Montano0%
Pyry Mentu0%
Alfie Cicale0%
Liam Möller0%
Matej Marković0%
Martin Kirilov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Martin Kirilov40%
Mihailo Bogićević20%
Toivo Mero20%
V. Tikkanen17%
Till Cissokho0%
T. Pukki0%
A. Ring0%
L. Lappalainen0%
Lucas Lingman0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
M. Borchers0%
J. Kallinen0%
L. Montano0%
M. Ylitolva0%
David Ezeh0%
Pyry Mentu0%
Alfie Cicale0%
Liam Möller0%
Matej Marković0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
David Ezeh67%
T. Pukki33%
Pyry Mentu33%
Lucas Lingman29%
Liam Möller25%
Martin Kirilov20%
Till Cissokho0%
A. Ring0%
V. Tikkanen0%
L. Lappalainen0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
M. Borchers0%
J. Kallinen0%
L. Montano0%
M. Ylitolva0%
Mihailo Bogićević0%
Toivo Mero0%
Alfie Cicale0%
Matej Marković0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
T. Pukki33%
M. Borchers14%
Till Cissokho0%
A. Ring0%
V. Tikkanen0%
L. Lappalainen0%
Lucas Lingman0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
J. Kallinen0%
L. Montano0%
M. Ylitolva0%
Mihailo Bogićević0%
David Ezeh0%
Pyry Mentu0%
Toivo Mero0%
Alfie Cicale0%
Liam Möller0%
Matej Marković0%
Martin Kirilov0%
Gnistan
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Adeleke Akinyemi60%
Joakim Latonen25%
D. Pérez0%
Ayo Obileye0%
Alexandro Craninx0%
Juhani Ojala0%
S. Ylätupa0%
Roman Eremenko0%
Edmund Arko-Mensah0%
V. Hänninen0%
Otto Hannula0%
G. Europaeus0%
Rachide Gnanou0%
Sergei Eremenko0%
Adam Jouhi0%
Marcelo Costa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Otto Hannula40%
Alexandro Craninx33%
V. Hänninen33%
Adeleke Akinyemi20%
Edmund Arko-Mensah20%
G. Europaeus20%
D. Pérez0%
Ayo Obileye0%
Juhani Ojala0%
S. Ylätupa0%
Roman Eremenko0%
Joakim Latonen0%
Rachide Gnanou0%
Sergei Eremenko0%
Adam Jouhi0%
Marcelo Costa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
V. Hänninen33%
D. Pérez20%
Edmund Arko-Mensah20%
Ayo Obileye0%
Alexandro Craninx0%
Juhani Ojala0%
S. Ylätupa0%
Roman Eremenko0%
Joakim Latonen0%
Adeleke Akinyemi0%
Otto Hannula0%
G. Europaeus0%
Rachide Gnanou0%
Sergei Eremenko0%
Adam Jouhi0%
Marcelo Costa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
D. Pérez20%
Ayo Obileye0%
Alexandro Craninx0%
Juhani Ojala0%
S. Ylätupa0%
Roman Eremenko0%
Joakim Latonen0%
Adeleke Akinyemi0%
Edmund Arko-Mensah0%
V. Hänninen0%
Otto Hannula0%
G. Europaeus0%
Rachide Gnanou0%
Sergei Eremenko0%
Adam Jouhi0%
Marcelo Costa0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
HJK Helsinki's squad is €4m more valuable than Gnistan's (€7m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
HJK Helsinki's attack is €1m more valuable than Gnistan's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
HJK Helsinki and Gnistan have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
HJK Helsinki's defence is €2m more valuable than Gnistan's (€3m vs €1m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
KuPS
Inter Turku
AC Oulu
VPS
Lahti
Turku PS
Ilves
SJK
FF Jaro
Mariehamn