HJK Helsinki are favoured to win, a 45% chance that the game will end with them on top, while a draw sits at 27% and Inter Turku 28%. The match is expected to see 2.9 goals on average, with the most likely total being 2 goals, a 24% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.5% chance. HJK, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, normally scores 1.2 goals and concedes 0.4; Inter Turku, on the road against a similar side, averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 82.7%, Under 5.5 cards at 81.0%, Over 1.5 goals at 79.5% (hit), Over 8.5 corners at 76.6%, and Over 2.5 cards at 73.7%. HJK’s recent form shows a win, loss, win, loss, win, and they just beat Ilves 2-1, while Inter Turku also came off a win, defeating KuPS 1-0.
Results analysis
HJK Helsinki’s recent run, highlighted by a win over Ilves, set the stage for a strong home outing, while Inter Turku also entered on a victory. The model predicted a Home win with a 45% probability, and the result matched the forecast as HJK secured a 3-0 triumph. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5, carried a 79.5% chance and was hit, confirming the expected flow of goals. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 fell short, but the overall performance aligned with the model’s expectations, reinforcing confidence in its predictive accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
HJK Helsinki win✓ Hit
45.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Inter Turku win✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
HJK Helsinki
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.10
1.53
0.87
1.20
1.33
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
3.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (13)
1.23
0.77
1.20
0.40
1.25
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
1.85
0.85
2.00
0.88
1.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter Turku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter Turku
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.52
1.32
1.46
1.08
1.58
1.58
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.05
1.37
0.80
1.10
1.33
1.67
vs Weaker (6)
3.00
1.17
3.67
1.00
2.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
16% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.5%
Under 1.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.2%
Under 2.5
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.8%
Under 3.5
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.7%
No
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
7.9%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.2%
0-0
6.7%
2-2
5.9%
0-1
5.8%
HJK Helsinki goals ↓
Inter Turku goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
5.8%
4.4%
1.8%
0.6%
1
7.9%
13%
7.2%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.4%
9.3%
5.9%
2.4%
0.8%
3
4.0%
5.1%
3.2%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.7%
2.1%
1.3%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = HJK Helsinki goals (down), columns = Inter Turku goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
HJK Helsinki
2.15
KuPS
2.11
Honka
1.81
Haka
1.66
AC Oulu
1.55
VPS
1.42
Mariehamn
1.26
Ilves
1.26
SJK
1.25
Inter Turku
1.14
Lahti
0.78
HIFK Helsinki
0.33
HJK Helsinki is 1.01 points better than Inter Turku in terms of average points per game (2.15 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Honka
1.96
VPS
1.94
AC Oulu
1.66
KuPS
1.59
Ilves
1.59
HJK Helsinki
1.52
Mariehamn
1.52
Haka
1.52
Inter Turku
1.43
SJK
1.18
Lahti
0.96
HIFK Helsinki
0.74
HJK Helsinki is 0.09 goals better than Inter Turku in terms of goals scored per game (1.52 vs 1.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
KuPS
0.78
HJK Helsinki
0.85
Honka
1.00
SJK
1.39
AC Oulu
1.41
Haka
1.45
VPS
1.48
Inter Turku
1.50
Mariehamn
1.59
Ilves
1.59
Lahti
2.04
HIFK Helsinki
2.59
HJK Helsinki is 0.65 goals better than Inter Turku in terms of goals conceded per game (0.85 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
KuPS
57%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
51%
Honka
51%
Haka
50%
Inter Turku
49%
Lahti
49%
VPS
49%
HIFK Helsinki
48%
Ilves
47%
Mariehamn
47%
HJK Helsinki is 5.7 percentage points better than Inter Turku in terms of average possession (55% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
HJK Helsinki
For 5.1 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 12.9 · Total 26.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Inter Turku
For 4.7 · Against 3.1 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 13.4 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
HJK Helsinki
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (34)
10.8
10.1
11.6
3.0
2.8
3.3
26.4
26.2
26.6
vs Stronger (4)
9.8
11.5
8.0
3.8
4.5
3.0
26.0
24.0
28.0
vs Similar (15)
10.6
9.2
12.4
3.4
3.3
3.5
27.6
27.0
28.3
vs Weaker (15)
11.6
10.8
12.2
2.5
1.9
3.1
25.6
26.0
25.2
% over line
62%
58%
67%
47%
47%
47%
78%
89%
67%
% under line
38%
42%
33%
53%
53%
53%
22%
11%
33%
This opponent (Inter Turku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter Turku
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (25)
8.5
8.5
8.4
3.1
3.3
2.9
22.8
22.9
22.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
9.1
9.0
9.1
3.0
2.9
3.1
23.5
24.0
23.0
vs Weaker (6)
6.8
7.3
6.0
3.5
4.7
2.3
21.0
20.7
21.5
% over line
21%
20%
22%
48%
54%
42%
53%
44%
62%
% under line
79%
80%
78%
52%
46%
58%
47%
56%
38%
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
HIFK Helsinki
11.6
SJK
11.5
HJK Helsinki
10.8
Mariehamn
10.8
Lahti
10.2
Honka
10.0
Ilves
9.9
Haka
9.9
KuPS
9.6
Inter Turku
8.5
VPS
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lahti
5.0
Mariehamn
4.4
HJK Helsinki
4.3
SJK
4.3
Inter Turku
4.1
KuPS
4.1
HIFK Helsinki
4.1
Haka
4.0
Honka
3.6
VPS
3.4
Ilves
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Mariehamn
26.6
HJK Helsinki
26.4
Lahti
23.4
HIFK Helsinki
22.8
Inter Turku
22.8
Haka
22.1
Ilves
21.6
VPS
21.2
KuPS
21.2
SJK
19.6
Honka
17.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
65.6%
Under 9.5
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
53.4%
Under 3.5
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
69.6%
Under 21.5
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
HJK Helsinki
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.47
0.60
0.73
0.40
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.25
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (13)
0.38
0.23
0.20
0.40
0.50
0.12
vs Weaker (13)
1.00
0.54
0.75
0.62
1.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter Turku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter Turku
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.48
0.77
0.38
0.83
0.58
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.53
0.40
0.40
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.33
2.00
0.33
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
56% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
HJK Helsinki over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Turku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Turku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Turku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
HJK Helsinki
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
1.07
0.27
0.47
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.75
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.54
1.00
0.00
0.75
0.88
vs Weaker (13)
0.85
0.31
1.25
0.25
0.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter Turku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter Turku
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.72
0.84
0.69
0.69
0.75
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.84
0.40
0.70
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.83
1.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
HJK Helsinki over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Turku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Turku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Turku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
HJK Helsinki
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Përparim Hetemaj40%
Nassim Boujellab0%
Pyry Soiri0%
David Browne0%
Santeri Hostikka0%
Conor Hazard0%
Jukka Raitala0%
Santeri Väänänen0%
Arttu Hoskonen0%
Miro Tenho0%
Lucas Lingman0%
Anthony Olusanya0%
Matti Peltola0%
Malik Abubakari0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Përparim Hetemaj40%
Jukka Raitala40%
Nassim Boujellab33%
David Browne17%
Santeri Hostikka17%
Malik Abubakari17%
Pyry Soiri0%
Conor Hazard0%
Santeri Väänänen0%
Arttu Hoskonen0%
Miro Tenho0%
Lucas Lingman0%
Anthony Olusanya0%
Matti Peltola0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Santeri Hostikka17%
Malik Abubakari17%
Nassim Boujellab0%
Pyry Soiri0%
Përparim Hetemaj0%
David Browne0%
Conor Hazard0%
Jukka Raitala0%
Santeri Väänänen0%
Arttu Hoskonen0%
Miro Tenho0%
Lucas Lingman0%
Anthony Olusanya0%
Matti Peltola0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Përparim Hetemaj20%
David Browne17%
Malik Abubakari17%
Nassim Boujellab0%
Pyry Soiri0%
Santeri Hostikka0%
Conor Hazard0%
Jukka Raitala0%
Santeri Väänänen0%
Arttu Hoskonen0%
Miro Tenho0%
Lucas Lingman0%
Anthony Olusanya0%
Matti Peltola0%
Inter Turku · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Clinton Jephta40%
J. Yli-Kokko29%
Alie Conteh25%
Ilari Kangasniemi20%
J. Tuominen12%
Jussi Niska11%
Antoin Loic Essomba11%
Albin Granlund0%
J. Laine0%
Juuso Hämäläinen0%
S. Saarinen0%
E. Huuhtanen0%
Prosper Ahiabu0%
Jean Fiacre Kouamé Botué0%
Luka Kuittinen0%
Henri Salomaa0%
V. Ulundu0%
Bismark Ampofo0%
Eeli Kiiskila0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Prosper Ahiabu25%
Juuso Hämäläinen20%
Ilari Kangasniemi20%
Clinton Jephta20%
J. Yli-Kokko14%
Jussi Niska11%
Luka Kuittinen11%
Antoin Loic Essomba11%
J. Tuominen0%
Albin Granlund0%
J. Laine0%
S. Saarinen0%
E. Huuhtanen0%
Jean Fiacre Kouamé Botué0%
Henri Salomaa0%
V. Ulundu0%
Alie Conteh0%
Bismark Ampofo0%
Eeli Kiiskila0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Yli-Kokko14%
J. Tuominen12%
J. Laine11%
Antoin Loic Essomba11%
Albin Granlund0%
Juuso Hämäläinen0%
S. Saarinen0%
E. Huuhtanen0%
Jussi Niska0%
Prosper Ahiabu0%
Jean Fiacre Kouamé Botué0%
Luka Kuittinen0%
Henri Salomaa0%
V. Ulundu0%
Alie Conteh0%
Bismark Ampofo0%
Ilari Kangasniemi0%
Clinton Jephta0%
Eeli Kiiskila0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Henri Salomaa25%
Alie Conteh25%
Clinton Jephta20%
Jean Fiacre Kouamé Botué14%
J. Tuominen12%
Albin Granlund0%
J. Laine0%
Juuso Hämäläinen0%
S. Saarinen0%
J. Yli-Kokko0%
E. Huuhtanen0%
Jussi Niska0%
Prosper Ahiabu0%
Luka Kuittinen0%
Antoin Loic Essomba0%
V. Ulundu0%
Bismark Ampofo0%
Ilari Kangasniemi0%
Eeli Kiiskila0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
HAK (21)
€1m
HJK Helsinki's squad is €2m more valuable than Inter Turku's (€7m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
HAK (7)
€0m
HJK Helsinki and Inter Turku have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
HAK (5)
€0m
HJK Helsinki and Inter Turku have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
HAK (9)
€1m
HJK Helsinki's defence is €1m more valuable than Inter Turku's (€3m vs €2m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
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KuPS
Honka
Haka
AC Oulu
VPS
SJK
Ilves
Mariehamn
Lahti
HIFK Helsinki