HJK Helsinki’s recent 2-1 win over Ilves and a winning streak of five matches, contrasted with Inter Turku’s mixed last five, give the model a clear edge for a home victory. The odds reflect this, with a 62% probability for a HJK win, 23% for a draw and 15% for Inter Turku. The model’s pick is a home win, and the expected total of 2.8 goals points to a modestly high scoring game, most likely 2-0 with a 11.5% chance. HJK’s home form shows 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opposition, while Inter Turku’s away form averages 1.17 scored and 1.5 conceded. The suggested picks are: Over 19.5 fouls83.8%, Under 5.5 cards80.3%, Over 1.577.7% (miss), Over 2.5 cards74.4% and Over 21.5 fouls71.2%.
Results analysis
HJK Helsinki finished the match 1-0 to secure a home win, extending their recent run of victories. The model’s pre-match favourite was a home win with a 62% probability, and the prediction proved correct. The match’s expected total of 2.8 goals fell short of the 2-goal outcome, but the most likely scoreline of 2-0 at 11.5% did not materialise. The single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals at 77.7%, was missed. The result matched the model’s forecast for the winner, while the over-goal selection failed, illustrating how even high-probability picks can falter on a tough selection day.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
HJK Helsinki win✓ Hit
61.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Inter Turku win✗ Miss
15.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
HJK Helsinki
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.17
1.79
0.71
1.62
1.56
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
0.00
1.00
2.00
4.00
vs Similar (12)
1.50
1.50
1.60
1.00
1.43
1.86
vs Weaker (16)
1.94
0.75
2.12
0.50
1.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter Turku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter Turku
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
3.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.30
2.20
1.20
1.60
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.62
1.46
2.08
1.42
1.17
1.50
vs Weaker (6)
3.00
0.67
2.67
0.33
3.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.7%
Under 1.5
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.7%
Under 2.5
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.5%
Under 3.5
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.2%
No
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.5%
1-1
11.2%
1-0 ✓
10.9%
2-1
9.8%
3-0
7.4%
0-0
7.2%
3-1
6.3%
1-2
4.4%
HJK Helsinki goals ↓
Inter Turku goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
4.3%
2.3%
0.6%
0.1%
1
11%
11%
4.4%
1.2%
0.3%
2
11%
9.8%
4.2%
1.2%
0.3%
3
7.4%
6.3%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
4
3.6%
3.1%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = HJK Helsinki goals (down), columns = Inter Turku goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
2.07
Ilves
2.00
HJK Helsinki
1.67
SJK
1.52
FF Jaro
1.50
Inter Turku
1.50
Gnistan
1.41
VPS
1.39
Haka
1.32
AC Oulu
1.04
Mariehamn
0.96
Lahti
0.93
EIF
0.70
HJK Helsinki is 0.17 points better than Inter Turku in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ilves
2.07
SJK
1.72
KuPS
1.70
Inter Turku
1.68
HJK Helsinki
1.63
VPS
1.54
Haka
1.48
Gnistan
1.48
AC Oulu
1.19
Lahti
1.10
FF Jaro
1.00
Mariehamn
1.00
EIF
0.89
HJK Helsinki is 0.05 goals worse than Inter Turku in terms of goals scored per game (1.63 vs 1.68).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FF Jaro
0.50
KuPS
0.89
HJK Helsinki
1.00
Ilves
1.00
Inter Turku
1.25
AC Oulu
1.48
Gnistan
1.55
Haka
1.61
SJK
1.62
Mariehamn
1.63
VPS
1.64
Lahti
1.69
EIF
2.11
HJK Helsinki is 0.25 goals better than Inter Turku in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
HJK Helsinki
For 6.0 · Against 6.3 · Total 12.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 12.0 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Inter Turku
For 5.4 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 14.4 · Total 28.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
HJK Helsinki
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.2
10.1
1.2
1.7
0.8
22.3
25.2
19.2
vs Stronger (6)
12.2
12.3
12.0
2.8
3.3
2.3
19.0
22.7
15.3
vs Similar (23)
8.6
8.4
9.0
1.4
2.3
0.4
23.8
25.6
20.8
vs Weaker (21)
8.8
6.0
9.7
0.6
0.3
0.8
23.2
30.0
21.0
% over line
55%
42%
70%
16%
21%
12%
52%
73%
30%
% under line
45%
58%
30%
84%
79%
88%
48%
27%
70%
This opponent (Inter Turku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter Turku
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.6
9.6
2.2
2.3
2.0
25.4
26.5
24.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (40)
10.2
10.9
9.4
2.1
2.2
2.1
24.5
25.2
23.7
vs Weaker (10)
9.8
9.0
10.5
2.3
2.6
2.0
30.0
33.0
27.0
% over line
57%
67%
45%
30%
35%
25%
83%
83%
82%
% under line
43%
33%
55%
70%
65%
75%
17%
17%
18%
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
12.5
SJK
10.6
Haka
10.5
Mariehamn
10.4
Lahti
10.1
VPS
9.9
KuPS
9.7
Inter Turku
9.7
Ilves
9.6
HJK Helsinki
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lahti
4.8
Gnistan
4.5
Mariehamn
4.5
Inter Turku
4.4
Haka
4.4
KuPS
4.4
SJK
4.0
Ilves
3.9
VPS
3.7
HJK Helsinki
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ilves
25.2
Inter Turku
24.7
Mariehamn
24.5
SJK
24.0
KuPS
23.9
Lahti
23.5
HJK Helsinki
22.8
Haka
22.4
VPS
22.1
Gnistan
21.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
56.5%
Under 9.5
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
54.4%
Under 3.5
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
71.2%
Under 21.5
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
HJK Helsinki
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
0.71
0.50
0.75
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.75
0.60
0.80
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (16)
0.75
0.44
0.88
0.25
0.62
0.62
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter Turku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter Turku
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.50
0.93
0.27
0.67
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.62
0.83
0.33
0.50
0.92
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.00
1.33
0.00
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
HJK Helsinki over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Turku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Turku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Turku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
HJK Helsinki
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.57
1.07
0.21
0.88
0.88
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.20
0.57
1.14
vs Weaker (16)
1.19
0.31
1.25
0.25
1.12
0.38
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter Turku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter Turku
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.80
1.27
0.93
0.93
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.96
0.83
1.25
1.08
0.67
0.58
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.67
1.33
0.33
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
HJK Helsinki over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Turku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Turku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Turku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
HJK Helsinki
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kai Meriluoto25%
Lee Erwin17%
Liam Möller17%
Georgios Antzoulas0%
Atomu Tanaka0%
Thijmen Nijhuis0%
Santeri Hostikka0%
Joona Toivio0%
Daniel O'Shaughnessy0%
Lucas Lingman0%
Ozan Kökçü0%
Hassane Bandé0%
Georgios Kanellopoulos0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
Noah Pallas0%
Miska Ylitolva0%
Luke Plange0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Georgios Antzoulas33%
Hassane Bandé33%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster33%
Joona Toivio25%
Lucas Lingman25%
Miska Ylitolva20%
Lee Erwin17%
Santeri Hostikka17%
Georgios Kanellopoulos17%
Liam Möller17%
Atomu Tanaka0%
Thijmen Nijhuis0%
Daniel O'Shaughnessy0%
Ozan Kökçü0%
Kai Meriluoto0%
Noah Pallas0%
Luke Plange0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lucas Lingman25%
Lee Erwin0%
Georgios Antzoulas0%
Atomu Tanaka0%
Thijmen Nijhuis0%
Santeri Hostikka0%
Joona Toivio0%
Daniel O'Shaughnessy0%
Ozan Kökçü0%
Hassane Bandé0%
Georgios Kanellopoulos0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
Kai Meriluoto0%
Noah Pallas0%
Miska Ylitolva0%
Luke Plange0%
Liam Möller0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Lee Erwin33%
Liam Möller17%
Georgios Antzoulas0%
Atomu Tanaka0%
Thijmen Nijhuis0%
Santeri Hostikka0%
Joona Toivio0%
Daniel O'Shaughnessy0%
Lucas Lingman0%
Ozan Kökçü0%
Hassane Bandé0%
Georgios Kanellopoulos0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
Kai Meriluoto0%
Noah Pallas0%
Miska Ylitolva0%
Luke Plange0%
Inter Turku · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Clinton Jephta40%
J. Yli-Kokko29%
Alie Conteh25%
Ilari Kangasniemi20%
J. Tuominen12%
Jussi Niska11%
Antoin Loic Essomba11%
Albin Granlund0%
J. Laine0%
Juuso Hämäläinen0%
S. Saarinen0%
E. Huuhtanen0%
Prosper Ahiabu0%
Jean Fiacre Kouamé Botué0%
Luka Kuittinen0%
Henri Salomaa0%
V. Ulundu0%
Bismark Ampofo0%
Eeli Kiiskila0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Prosper Ahiabu25%
Juuso Hämäläinen20%
Ilari Kangasniemi20%
Clinton Jephta20%
J. Yli-Kokko14%
Jussi Niska11%
Luka Kuittinen11%
Antoin Loic Essomba11%
J. Tuominen0%
Albin Granlund0%
J. Laine0%
S. Saarinen0%
E. Huuhtanen0%
Jean Fiacre Kouamé Botué0%
Henri Salomaa0%
V. Ulundu0%
Alie Conteh0%
Bismark Ampofo0%
Eeli Kiiskila0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Yli-Kokko14%
J. Tuominen12%
J. Laine11%
Antoin Loic Essomba11%
Albin Granlund0%
Juuso Hämäläinen0%
S. Saarinen0%
E. Huuhtanen0%
Jussi Niska0%
Prosper Ahiabu0%
Jean Fiacre Kouamé Botué0%
Luka Kuittinen0%
Henri Salomaa0%
V. Ulundu0%
Alie Conteh0%
Bismark Ampofo0%
Ilari Kangasniemi0%
Clinton Jephta0%
Eeli Kiiskila0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Henri Salomaa25%
Alie Conteh25%
Clinton Jephta20%
Jean Fiacre Kouamé Botué14%
J. Tuominen12%
Albin Granlund0%
J. Laine0%
Juuso Hämäläinen0%
S. Saarinen0%
J. Yli-Kokko0%
E. Huuhtanen0%
Jussi Niska0%
Prosper Ahiabu0%
Luka Kuittinen0%
Antoin Loic Essomba0%
V. Ulundu0%
Bismark Ampofo0%
Ilari Kangasniemi0%
Eeli Kiiskila0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
HAK (21)
€1m
EIF (20)
€1m
HJK Helsinki's squad is €2m more valuable than Inter Turku's (€7m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
EIF (9)
€0m
HAK (7)
€0m
HJK Helsinki and Inter Turku have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
HAK (5)
€0m
EIF (4)
€0m
HJK Helsinki and Inter Turku have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
HAK (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
EIF (7)
€0m
HJK Helsinki's defence is €1m more valuable than Inter Turku's (€3m vs €2m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
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KuPS
Ilves
SJK
Gnistan
Haka
VPS
AC Oulu
Lahti
Mariehamn
EIF
FF Jaro