The contest between HJK Helsinki and Inter Turku is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win as the most likely outcome. HJK’s recent run of wins and losses (WLWLW) and a 2-1 victory over Ilves suggest they are still sharp, while Inter Turku’s mixed form (WLDDW) and a 1-0 win over KuPS keep them competitive. The expected total of goals is 3.0, yet the most probable total is two, with a 12.4% chance of a 1-1 scoreline. HJK averages 1.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Inter Turku averages 1.69 goals scored and 1.31 conceded away. The probabilities for the match result are 39% home win, 27% draw, and 34% away win. Suggested selections include Under 5.5 cards at 89.6%, Under 25.5 fouls at 84.5%, Over 1.5 goals at 80.8% (hit), Under 4.5 cards at 78.3%, and Under 23.5 fouls at 72.6%. Each figure is presented once, keeping the preview concise and focused.
Results analysis
The match ended in a 3-3 draw, a shock that left the pre-match favourite, HJK Helsinki, on the back foot. The model had picked a home win with a 39% probability, but that call was wrong. The only other selection the model offered was Over 1.5 goals, which hit with an 80.8% chance. HJK had been coming off a win and Inter Turku likewise, yet both sides failed to secure the result the model expected. The final score of 3-3 matched the most likely total of 2 goals only 24% of the time, underscoring how unpredictable the Veikkausliiga can be.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
HJK Helsinki win✗ Miss
38.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Inter Turku win✗ Miss
34.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
HJK Helsinki
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
3.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.53
1.33
2.73
1.27
2.33
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.86
1.29
1.83
1.33
1.88
1.25
vs Weaker (16)
3.12
1.38
3.33
1.22
2.86
1.57
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter Turku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter Turku
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.00
1.81
0.81
1.71
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.79
1.07
1.87
0.87
1.69
1.31
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.8%
Under 1.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.0%
Under 2.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.6%
Under 3.5
65.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.9%
No
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
8.1%
1-0
6.7%
0-0
6.3%
0-1
6.2%
2-2
6.2%
2-0
6.0%
HJK Helsinki goals ↓
Inter Turku goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
6.2%
5.3%
2.5%
0.9%
1
6.7%
12%
8.1%
3.9%
1.4%
2
6.0%
8.7%
6.2%
3.0%
1.1%
3
3.1%
4.4%
3.2%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.2%
1.7%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = HJK Helsinki goals (down), columns = Inter Turku goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
1.95
Inter Turku
1.91
HJK Helsinki
1.68
Gnistan
1.64
AC Oulu
1.55
VPS
1.50
Lahti
1.45
Turku PS
1.41
Ilves
1.14
SJK
0.86
FF Jaro
0.68
Mariehamn
0.64
HJK Helsinki is 0.23 points worse than Inter Turku in terms of average points per game (1.68 vs 1.91).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.73
HJK Helsinki
1.64
Gnistan
1.64
Ilves
1.55
VPS
1.32
Inter Turku
1.32
Turku PS
1.27
Lahti
1.18
SJK
1.14
AC Oulu
1.14
FF Jaro
0.82
Mariehamn
0.77
HJK Helsinki is 0.32 goals better than Inter Turku in terms of goals scored per game (1.64 vs 1.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.73
Lahti
0.86
VPS
1.00
KuPS
1.05
Turku PS
1.05
AC Oulu
1.14
HJK Helsinki
1.23
Gnistan
1.32
SJK
1.50
Ilves
1.68
Mariehamn
1.95
FF Jaro
2.00
HJK Helsinki is 0.50 goals worse than Inter Turku in terms of goals conceded per game (1.23 vs 0.73).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
HJK Helsinki is 2.9 percentage points worse than Inter Turku in terms of average possession (55% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
HJK Helsinki
For 5.6 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.2 · Against 8.8 · Total 17.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Inter Turku
For 5.7 · Against 4.7 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 9.7 · Total 20.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
HJK Helsinki
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
9.8
11.9
1.2
1.2
1.2
17.7
16.6
18.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
9.0
8.0
10.3
0.8
1.2
0.4
15.1
15.8
14.3
vs Weaker (31)
11.8
11.0
12.6
1.4
1.1
1.7
19.1
17.2
20.7
% over line
70%
60%
80%
12%
8%
16%
25%
20%
30%
% under line
30%
40%
20%
88%
92%
84%
75%
80%
70%
This opponent (Inter Turku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter Turku
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.6
10.8
1.1
0.9
1.2
20.5
22.1
19.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (45)
10.6
10.6
10.6
1.1
1.0
1.3
20.3
22.1
18.8
vs Weaker (5)
13.0
-
13.0
0.6
0.0
1.0
25.0
-
25.0
% over line
68%
62%
73%
12%
12%
12%
42%
50%
36%
% under line
32%
38%
27%
88%
88%
88%
58%
50%
64%
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
11.8
Inter Turku
10.5
Turku PS
10.5
SJK
10.4
Mariehamn
10.4
FF Jaro
10.3
Ilves
10.3
VPS
10.2
HJK Helsinki
10.0
KuPS
10.0
Lahti
9.9
AC Oulu
9.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Turku PS
6.2
Lahti
4.7
Mariehamn
4.2
Gnistan
4.1
Ilves
4.0
AC Oulu
3.9
SJK
3.9
Inter Turku
3.9
VPS
3.8
FF Jaro
3.6
KuPS
3.5
HJK Helsinki
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Turku PS
29.2
SJK
24.2
Ilves
23.9
Inter Turku
23.6
Lahti
23.6
Mariehamn
23.3
VPS
22.9
Gnistan
22.6
KuPS
22.4
AC Oulu
22.3
HJK Helsinki
21.0
FF Jaro
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
54.4%
Under 9.5
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
39.5%
Under 3.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
43.1%
Under 21.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
HJK Helsinki
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.70
1.13
0.60
1.13
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.64
0.50
0.67
1.00
0.62
vs Weaker (16)
1.44
0.75
1.56
0.56
1.29
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter Turku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter Turku
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.50
0.94
0.38
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.86
0.54
1.00
0.40
0.69
0.69
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
HJK Helsinki over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Turku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Turku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Turku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
HJK Helsinki
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.63
1.60
0.67
1.20
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.07
0.64
1.33
0.67
0.88
0.62
vs Weaker (16)
1.69
0.62
1.78
0.67
1.57
0.57
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter Turku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter Turku
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.50
0.88
0.44
1.07
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.93
0.54
0.87
0.47
1.00
0.62
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
HJK Helsinki over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Turku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Turku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Turku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
HJK Helsinki
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
T. Pukki33%
David Ezeh33%
M. Borchers29%
A. Ring20%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster20%
Mihailo Bogićević20%
Toivo Mero20%
V. Tikkanen17%
M. Ylitolva14%
Till Cissokho0%
L. Lappalainen0%
Lucas Lingman0%
J. Kallinen0%
L. Montano0%
Pyry Mentu0%
Alfie Cicale0%
Liam Möller0%
Matej Marković0%
Martin Kirilov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Martin Kirilov40%
Mihailo Bogićević20%
Toivo Mero20%
V. Tikkanen17%
Till Cissokho0%
T. Pukki0%
A. Ring0%
L. Lappalainen0%
Lucas Lingman0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
M. Borchers0%
J. Kallinen0%
L. Montano0%
M. Ylitolva0%
David Ezeh0%
Pyry Mentu0%
Alfie Cicale0%
Liam Möller0%
Matej Marković0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
David Ezeh67%
T. Pukki33%
Pyry Mentu33%
Lucas Lingman29%
Liam Möller25%
Martin Kirilov20%
Till Cissokho0%
A. Ring0%
V. Tikkanen0%
L. Lappalainen0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
M. Borchers0%
J. Kallinen0%
L. Montano0%
M. Ylitolva0%
Mihailo Bogićević0%
Toivo Mero0%
Alfie Cicale0%
Matej Marković0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
T. Pukki33%
M. Borchers14%
Till Cissokho0%
A. Ring0%
V. Tikkanen0%
L. Lappalainen0%
Lucas Lingman0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
J. Kallinen0%
L. Montano0%
M. Ylitolva0%
Mihailo Bogićević0%
David Ezeh0%
Pyry Mentu0%
Toivo Mero0%
Alfie Cicale0%
Liam Möller0%
Matej Marković0%
Martin Kirilov0%
Inter Turku
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Clinton Jephta40%
J. Yli-Kokko29%
Alie Conteh25%
Ilari Kangasniemi20%
J. Tuominen12%
Jussi Niska11%
Antoin Loic Essomba11%
Albin Granlund0%
J. Laine0%
Juuso Hämäläinen0%
S. Saarinen0%
E. Huuhtanen0%
Prosper Ahiabu0%
Jean Fiacre Kouamé Botué0%
Luka Kuittinen0%
Henri Salomaa0%
V. Ulundu0%
Bismark Ampofo0%
Eeli Kiiskila0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Prosper Ahiabu25%
Juuso Hämäläinen20%
Ilari Kangasniemi20%
Clinton Jephta20%
J. Yli-Kokko14%
Jussi Niska11%
Luka Kuittinen11%
Antoin Loic Essomba11%
J. Tuominen0%
Albin Granlund0%
J. Laine0%
S. Saarinen0%
E. Huuhtanen0%
Jean Fiacre Kouamé Botué0%
Henri Salomaa0%
V. Ulundu0%
Alie Conteh0%
Bismark Ampofo0%
Eeli Kiiskila0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Yli-Kokko14%
J. Tuominen12%
J. Laine11%
Antoin Loic Essomba11%
Albin Granlund0%
Juuso Hämäläinen0%
S. Saarinen0%
E. Huuhtanen0%
Jussi Niska0%
Prosper Ahiabu0%
Jean Fiacre Kouamé Botué0%
Luka Kuittinen0%
Henri Salomaa0%
V. Ulundu0%
Alie Conteh0%
Bismark Ampofo0%
Ilari Kangasniemi0%
Clinton Jephta0%
Eeli Kiiskila0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Henri Salomaa25%
Alie Conteh25%
Clinton Jephta20%
Jean Fiacre Kouamé Botué14%
J. Tuominen12%
Albin Granlund0%
J. Laine0%
Juuso Hämäläinen0%
S. Saarinen0%
J. Yli-Kokko0%
E. Huuhtanen0%
Jussi Niska0%
Prosper Ahiabu0%
Luka Kuittinen0%
Antoin Loic Essomba0%
V. Ulundu0%
Bismark Ampofo0%
Ilari Kangasniemi0%
Eeli Kiiskila0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
HJK Helsinki's squad is €2m more valuable than Inter Turku's (€7m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
HJK Helsinki and Inter Turku have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
HJK Helsinki and Inter Turku have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
HJK Helsinki's defence is €1m more valuable than Inter Turku's (€3m vs €2m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
KuPS
Gnistan
AC Oulu
VPS
Lahti
Turku PS
Ilves
SJK
FF Jaro
Mariehamn