This opponent (Lahti) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lahti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.97
1.23
1.46
0.76
2.35
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
3.25
2.00
2.33
0.20
3.80
vs Similar (22)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.20
1.00
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.1%
Under 1.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.3%
Under 2.5
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.1%
Under 3.5
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
39.6%
No
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
15.1%
1-0
13.0%
3-0
11.1%
1-1
8.7%
2-1
8.7%
0-0
7.1%
3-1
6.3%
4-0
6.1%
HJK Helsinki goals ↓
Lahti goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
2.8%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
1
13%
8.7%
2.3%
0.4%
0.1%
2
15%
8.7%
2.5%
0.5%
0.1%
3
11%
6.3%
1.8%
0.3%
0.0%
4
6.1%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = HJK Helsinki goals (down), columns = Lahti goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
1.96
HJK Helsinki
1.96
VPS
1.90
SJK
1.54
Honka
1.45
AC Oulu
1.34
Inter Turku
1.29
Ilves
1.22
Haka
1.19
Lahti
1.07
Mariehamn
0.90
Kooteepee
0.74
Gnistan
0.50
HJK Helsinki is 0.89 points better than Lahti in terms of average points per game (1.96 vs 1.07).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
HJK Helsinki
1.85
KuPS
1.52
AC Oulu
1.48
VPS
1.48
SJK
1.32
Haka
1.30
Ilves
1.30
Inter Turku
1.25
Honka
1.10
Mariehamn
1.07
Lahti
0.96
Kooteepee
0.78
Gnistan
0.00
HJK Helsinki is 0.89 goals better than Lahti in terms of goals scored per game (1.85 vs 0.96).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
KuPS
0.74
VPS
0.90
Honka
0.94
HJK Helsinki
0.96
Ilves
1.22
SJK
1.25
Mariehamn
1.38
Inter Turku
1.43
Gnistan
1.50
Lahti
1.52
Haka
1.56
Kooteepee
1.63
AC Oulu
1.79
HJK Helsinki is 0.56 goals better than Lahti in terms of goals conceded per game (0.96 vs 1.52).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
HJK Helsinki
53%
SJK
52%
Honka
52%
KuPS
52%
VPS
50%
Ilves
50%
Inter Turku
50%
Gnistan
49%
Kooteepee
49%
Lahti
48%
Haka
48%
Mariehamn
47%
HJK Helsinki is 5.4 percentage points better than Lahti in terms of average possession (53% vs 48%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
HJK Helsinki
For 5.3 · Against 3.6 · Total 8.9
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.2
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 11.9 · Total 24.9
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lahti
For 3.9 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.3
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.8
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 12.5 · Total 23.4
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
HJK Helsinki
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.3
9.8
2.8
2.4
3.2
24.1
23.5
24.7
vs Stronger (8)
8.8
9.8
7.8
4.1
4.5
3.8
21.5
22.3
20.7
vs Similar (19)
11.0
10.3
11.6
3.1
2.3
3.7
24.7
23.0
26.0
vs Weaker (23)
9.9
10.5
9.3
2.1
1.8
2.4
24.7
24.1
25.4
% over line
56%
61%
50%
38%
35%
42%
63%
67%
60%
% under line
44%
39%
50%
62%
65%
58%
37%
33%
40%
This opponent (Lahti) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lahti
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (39)
9.9
10.1
9.7
3.5
2.9
4.0
23.5
23.7
23.4
vs Stronger (12)
8.2
8.3
8.0
3.8
3.3
4.3
22.0
23.3
20.7
vs Similar (27)
11.1
11.8
10.7
3.4
2.8
3.9
24.6
24.0
25.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
50%
56%
62%
50%
71%
68%
67%
69%
% under line
46%
50%
44%
38%
50%
29%
32%
33%
31%
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kooteepee
11.5
SJK
11.0
Haka
10.4
Mariehamn
10.4
HJK Helsinki
10.0
Honka
10.0
Lahti
9.9
Inter Turku
9.7
Ilves
9.3
VPS
9.2
KuPS
9.1
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Mariehamn
5.0
Kooteepee
5.0
Lahti
4.9
Inter Turku
4.4
KuPS
4.4
SJK
4.3
Haka
4.2
HJK Helsinki
3.9
Honka
3.8
VPS
3.7
Ilves
3.6
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Mariehamn
25.5
Ilves
24.9
HJK Helsinki
24.5
SJK
24.3
Inter Turku
24.3
Lahti
23.5
Kooteepee
23.3
KuPS
22.7
Haka
22.6
VPS
21.8
Honka
19.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
61.7%
Under 9.5
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
64.0%
Under 3.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
73.6%
Under 21.5
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
HJK Helsinki
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.40
0.53
0.47
0.53
0.33
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.30
0.25
0.50
0.67
0.17
vs Weaker (14)
0.79
0.21
0.88
0.25
0.67
0.17
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lahti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.90
0.54
0.69
0.12
1.06
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.80
vs Similar (22)
0.27
0.68
0.40
0.60
0.17
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
HJK Helsinki over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
HJK Helsinki
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.67
1.07
0.20
0.47
1.13
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.17
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.80
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.33
vs Weaker (14)
0.71
0.36
0.75
0.12
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lahti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.07
0.69
0.77
0.65
1.29
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.75
1.00
1.33
0.20
2.00
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.82
0.60
0.60
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
HJK Helsinki over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 2.5 cards
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Home win
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 8.5 corners
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 5.5 cards
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
HJK Helsinki
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bojan RaduloviÄ60%
Hassane BandÃĐ40%
Santeri Hostikka25%
PÃŦrparim Hetemaj20%
Pyry Soiri0%
Aapo Halme0%
Niki MÃĪenpÃĪÃĪ0%
Kristopher Da Graca0%
Joona Toivio0%
Jukka Raitala0%
Niko HÃĪmÃĪlÃĪinen0%
Jesse Ãst0%
Kevin Kouassivi-Benissan0%
Miro Tenho0%
Lucas Lingman0%
Anthony Olusanya0%
Tuomas Ollila0%
Matti Peltola0%
Georgios Kanellopoulos0%
Topi Keskinen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lucas Lingman33%
Topi Keskinen33%
Santeri Hostikka25%
Miro Tenho25%
Matti Peltola25%
PÃŦrparim Hetemaj20%
Pyry Soiri0%
Aapo Halme0%
Niki MÃĪenpÃĪÃĪ0%
Kristopher Da Graca0%
Joona Toivio0%
Jukka Raitala0%
Niko HÃĪmÃĪlÃĪinen0%
Jesse Ãst0%
Kevin Kouassivi-Benissan0%
Anthony Olusanya0%
Tuomas Ollila0%
Hassane BandÃĐ0%
Georgios Kanellopoulos0%
Bojan RaduloviÄ0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lucas Lingman33%
Matti Peltola25%
Hassane BandÃĐ20%
Pyry Soiri0%
Aapo Halme0%
Niki MÃĪenpÃĪÃĪ0%
PÃŦrparim Hetemaj0%
Santeri Hostikka0%
Kristopher Da Graca0%
Joona Toivio0%
Jukka Raitala0%
Niko HÃĪmÃĪlÃĪinen0%
Jesse Ãst0%
Kevin Kouassivi-Benissan0%
Miro Tenho0%
Anthony Olusanya0%
Tuomas Ollila0%
Georgios Kanellopoulos0%
Bojan RaduloviÄ0%
Topi Keskinen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Santeri Hostikka25%
Bojan RaduloviÄ20%
Pyry Soiri0%
Aapo Halme0%
Niki MÃĪenpÃĪÃĪ0%
PÃŦrparim Hetemaj0%
Kristopher Da Graca0%
Joona Toivio0%
Jukka Raitala0%
Niko HÃĪmÃĪlÃĪinen0%
Jesse Ãst0%
Kevin Kouassivi-Benissan0%
Miro Tenho0%
Lucas Lingman0%
Anthony Olusanya0%
Tuomas Ollila0%
Hassane BandÃĐ0%
Matti Peltola0%
Georgios Kanellopoulos0%
Topi Keskinen0%
Lahti · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martim Ferreira33%
Neemias Barbosa33%
A. Lindholm20%
Neemias Barbosa20%
TÃēfol Montiel17%
Otso Koskinen14%
M. Sarr12%
Yohan Cassubie11%
R. Sans0%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
JosÃĐ MÞller0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joel Lehtonen33%
R. Yapi33%
Martim Ferreira33%
M. Sarr25%
R. Sans22%
Yohan Cassubie22%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas20%
TÃēfol Montiel17%
Osku Maukonen11%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
A. Lindholm0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
JosÃĐ MÞller0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
TÃēfol Montiel33%
R. Sans22%
Yohan Cassubie22%
Martim Ferreira17%
Erik Andersson0%
M. Sarr0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
A. Lindholm0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
JosÃĐ MÞller0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Topias Inkinen33%
TÃēfol Montiel17%
M. Sarr12%
Yohan Cassubie11%
R. Sans0%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Martim Ferreira0%
A. Lindholm0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
JosÃĐ MÞller0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
HAK (21)
€1m
KOO (19)
€1m
HJK Helsinki's squad is €4m more valuable than Lahti's (€7m vs €3m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
KOO (10)
€1m
HAK (7)
€0m
HJK Helsinki's attack is €1m more valuable than Lahti's (€2m vs €1m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
HAK (5)
€0m
KOO (2)
€0m
HJK Helsinki and Lahti have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
HAK (9)
€1m
KOO (7)
€0m
HJK Helsinki's defence is €2m more valuable than Lahti's (€3m vs €1m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
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VPS
KuPS
Honka
SJK
AC Oulu
Inter Turku
Ilves
Haka
Mariehamn
Kooteepee
Gnistan