This opponent (Lahti) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lahti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.27
2.13
1.20
2.00
1.33
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.95
1.18
2.00
0.91
1.91
1.45
vs Weaker (6)
2.50
1.33
3.33
2.00
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
83.8%
Under 1.5
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
62.0%
Under 2.5
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.7%
Under 3.5
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.4%
No
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
8.6%
1-0 â
7.4%
3-1
6.8%
3-0
5.9%
2-2
5.6%
1-2
5.5%
HJK Helsinki goals ↓
Lahti goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
3.7%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
1
7.4%
11%
5.5%
2.1%
0.6%
2
8.6%
9.9%
5.6%
2.2%
0.6%
3
5.9%
6.8%
3.9%
1.5%
0.4%
4
3.0%
3.5%
2.0%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = HJK Helsinki goals (down), columns = Lahti goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
1.95
Inter Turku
1.91
HJK Helsinki
1.68
Gnistan
1.64
AC Oulu
1.55
VPS
1.50
Lahti
1.45
Turku PS
1.41
Ilves
1.14
SJK
0.86
FF Jaro
0.68
Mariehamn
0.64
HJK Helsinki is 0.23 points better than Lahti in terms of average points per game (1.68 vs 1.45).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.73
HJK Helsinki
1.64
Gnistan
1.64
Ilves
1.55
VPS
1.32
Inter Turku
1.32
Turku PS
1.27
Lahti
1.18
SJK
1.14
AC Oulu
1.14
FF Jaro
0.82
Mariehamn
0.77
HJK Helsinki is 0.45 goals better than Lahti in terms of goals scored per game (1.64 vs 1.18).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.73
Lahti
0.86
VPS
1.00
KuPS
1.05
Turku PS
1.05
AC Oulu
1.14
HJK Helsinki
1.23
Gnistan
1.32
SJK
1.50
Ilves
1.68
Mariehamn
1.95
FF Jaro
2.00
HJK Helsinki is 0.36 goals worse than Lahti in terms of goals conceded per game (1.23 vs 0.86).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
HJK Helsinki is 1.1 percentage points worse than Lahti in terms of average possession (55% vs 56%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
HJK Helsinki
For 6.4 · Against 4.7 · Total 11.1
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.8 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.2
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.5 · Against 8.1 · Total 16.6
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lahti
For 4.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.0
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.7
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 13.0 · Total 24.3
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
HJK Helsinki
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
10.0
11.8
1.3
1.4
1.2
19.4
18.2
20.6
vs Stronger (2)
10.0
-
10.0
3.0
-
3.0
30.0
-
30.0
vs Similar (19)
9.4
8.8
10.3
1.1
1.7
0.4
17.5
19.4
14.3
vs Weaker (29)
12.1
11.0
13.2
1.3
1.2
1.5
18.9
17.2
20.7
% over line
73%
64%
82%
14%
12%
16%
36%
27%
45%
% under line
27%
36%
18%
86%
88%
84%
64%
73%
55%
This opponent (Lahti) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lahti
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.0
10.5
3.0
0.3
0.3
0.2
24.3
24.5
24.0
vs Stronger (7)
13.0
13.0
-
0.4
1.5
0.0
25.0
25.0
-
vs Similar (35)
5.5
8.0
3.0
0.3
0.3
0.3
24.0
24.0
24.0
vs Weaker (8)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
33%
50%
0%
4%
4%
4%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
67%
50%
100%
96%
96%
96%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
12.3
Turku PS
11.2
FF Jaro
10.8
SJK
10.6
Mariehamn
10.5
Ilves
10.5
Inter Turku
10.3
HJK Helsinki
10.3
VPS
10.1
Lahti
9.9
AC Oulu
9.9
KuPS
9.9
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Turku PS
6.6
Lahti
4.8
Mariehamn
4.2
Gnistan
4.2
SJK
4.0
Inter Turku
4.0
Ilves
4.0
AC Oulu
3.9
FF Jaro
3.7
VPS
3.6
KuPS
3.6
HJK Helsinki
3.1
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Turku PS
30.6
SJK
24.1
Ilves
24.0
Inter Turku
23.7
Lahti
23.5
Mariehamn
23.2
VPS
22.4
AC Oulu
22.3
KuPS
22.3
Gnistan
22.1
HJK Helsinki
20.9
FF Jaro
18.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
48.2%
Under 9.5
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
50.7%
Under 3.5
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
41.0%
Under 21.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
HJK Helsinki
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.73
0.88
0.69
0.71
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.38
0.77
0.43
0.86
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (17)
1.12
0.71
1.22
0.56
1.00
0.88
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lahti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.53
1.20
0.40
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.05
0.59
1.18
0.36
0.91
0.82
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.33
1.67
0.67
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
HJK Helsinki over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
HJK Helsinki
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.83
1.50
0.94
1.00
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.77
1.29
0.86
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (17)
1.59
0.88
1.67
1.00
1.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lahti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.73
0.93
0.80
1.20
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
0.00
2.00
3.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.91
0.59
0.82
0.55
1.00
0.64
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
1.00
1.67
1.33
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
HJK Helsinki over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 5.5 cards
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
HJK Helsinki
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
T. Pukki33%
David Ezeh33%
M. Borchers29%
A. Ring20%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster20%
Mihailo BogiÄeviÄ20%
Toivo Mero20%
V. Tikkanen17%
M. Ylitolva14%
Till Cissokho0%
L. Lappalainen0%
Lucas Lingman0%
J. Kallinen0%
L. Montano0%
Pyry Mentu0%
Alfie Cicale0%
Liam MÃķller0%
Matej MarkoviÄ0%
Martin Kirilov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Martin Kirilov40%
Mihailo BogiÄeviÄ20%
Toivo Mero20%
V. Tikkanen17%
Till Cissokho0%
T. Pukki0%
A. Ring0%
L. Lappalainen0%
Lucas Lingman0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
M. Borchers0%
J. Kallinen0%
L. Montano0%
M. Ylitolva0%
David Ezeh0%
Pyry Mentu0%
Alfie Cicale0%
Liam MÃķller0%
Matej MarkoviÄ0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
David Ezeh67%
T. Pukki33%
Pyry Mentu33%
Lucas Lingman29%
Liam MÃķller25%
Martin Kirilov20%
Till Cissokho0%
A. Ring0%
V. Tikkanen0%
L. Lappalainen0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
M. Borchers0%
J. Kallinen0%
L. Montano0%
M. Ylitolva0%
Mihailo BogiÄeviÄ0%
Toivo Mero0%
Alfie Cicale0%
Matej MarkoviÄ0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
T. Pukki33%
M. Borchers14%
Till Cissokho0%
A. Ring0%
V. Tikkanen0%
L. Lappalainen0%
Lucas Lingman0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
J. Kallinen0%
L. Montano0%
M. Ylitolva0%
Mihailo BogiÄeviÄ0%
David Ezeh0%
Pyry Mentu0%
Toivo Mero0%
Alfie Cicale0%
Liam MÃķller0%
Matej MarkoviÄ0%
Martin Kirilov0%
Lahti
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martim Ferreira33%
Neemias Barbosa33%
A. Lindholm20%
Neemias Barbosa20%
TÃēfol Montiel17%
Otso Koskinen14%
M. Sarr12%
Yohan Cassubie11%
R. Sans0%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
JosÃĐ MÞller0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joel Lehtonen33%
R. Yapi33%
Martim Ferreira33%
M. Sarr25%
R. Sans22%
Yohan Cassubie22%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas20%
TÃēfol Montiel17%
Osku Maukonen11%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
A. Lindholm0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
JosÃĐ MÞller0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
TÃēfol Montiel33%
R. Sans22%
Yohan Cassubie22%
Martim Ferreira17%
Erik Andersson0%
M. Sarr0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
A. Lindholm0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
JosÃĐ MÞller0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Topias Inkinen33%
TÃēfol Montiel17%
M. Sarr12%
Yohan Cassubie11%
R. Sans0%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Martim Ferreira0%
A. Lindholm0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
JosÃĐ MÞller0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
HJK Helsinki's squad is €4m more valuable than Lahti's (€7m vs €3m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
HJK Helsinki's attack is €1m more valuable than Lahti's (€2m vs €1m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
HJK Helsinki and Lahti have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
HJK Helsinki's defence is €2m more valuable than Lahti's (€3m vs €1m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
KuPS
Inter Turku
Gnistan
AC Oulu
VPS
Turku PS
Ilves
SJK
FF Jaro
Mariehamn