PythiaFootballBETA
HJK Helsinki is expected to dominate Turku PS, with the model predicting a home win. The recent form of both teams suggests a closely contested match, with HJK Helsinki coming off a defeat and Turku PS coming off a win. However, HJK Helsinki's home form against stronger opponents is concerning, with an average of 3 goals conceded. On the other hand, Turku PS has shown resilience away to weaker opponents, scoring 1.31 goals and conceding 1.46.
The expected total goals is 3.0, with the most likely score being 1-1 at 11.9%. The home side's home scoring and conceding against stronger opponents is poor, but Turku PS's away scoring and conceding is relatively strong.
The model's selection is the home win, with a 52% probability. The suggested picks include Under 21.5 fouls at 85.6%, Under 9.5 corners at 76.4%, and Over 1.5 at 80.5%. The home win percentage is 52%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 23%.
The win extends HJK Helsinki's run of inconsistent form, coming off a defeat in their last outing. The final score was 1-0, a result that defied the model's expectations of a higher-scoring match. The model predicted a 52% chance of a home win, which proved correct. The model's selection was the home win, with a predicted probability of 52%. The suggested picks included under 21.5 fouls, which hit at 85.6%, over 1.5 goals, which missed at 80.5%, and under 9.5 corners, which hit at 76.4%. The model's call on the home win was correct, with the actual result being a 1-0 victory for HJK Helsinki, well clear of the expected total of 3 goals.
HJK Helsinki| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.13 | 1.43 | 2.12 | 1.56 | 2.14 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 2.09 | 1.55 | 2.31 | 1.69 | 1.78 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 2.25 | 1.12 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
Turku PS| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.60 | 1.20 | 2.00 | 0.93 | 1.20 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.27 | 1.18 | 1.77 | 1.08 | 0.56 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 2.50 | 1.25 | 3.50 | 0.00 | 2.17 | 1.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
| Turku PS goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 8.3% | 12% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.5% | 9.8% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 5.1% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 2.3% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
HJK HelsinkiTurku PSHJK Helsinki| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.4 | 9.1 | 11.9 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 17.0 | 15.5 | 18.8 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (34) | 9.2 | 7.8 | 11.6 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 17.0 | 15.9 | 18.8 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 12.4 | 12.7 | 12.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 17.1 | 14.3 | 18.8 |
| % over line | 67% | 55% | 80% | 12% | 8% | 16% | 24% | 18% | 30% |
| % under line | 33% | 45% | 20% | 88% | 92% | 84% | 76% | 82% | 70% |
Turku PS| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.0 | 10.3 | 8.3 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 22.4 | 25.7 | 20.8 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (30) | 8.0 | 10.3 | 6.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 20.0 | 25.7 | 15.8 |
| vs Weaker (20) | 12.5 | - | 12.5 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 31.0 | - | 31.0 |
| % over line | 56% | 67% | 50% | 12% | 8% | 16% | 67% | 67% | 67% |
| % under line | 44% | 33% | 50% | 88% | 92% | 84% | 33% | 33% | 33% |
HJK Helsinki| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 0.67 | 1.06 | 0.69 | 1.00 | 0.64 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.05 | 0.68 | 1.08 | 0.77 | 1.00 | 0.56 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.00 | 0.62 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
Turku PS| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.53 | 0.93 | 0.47 | 0.33 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.68 | 0.55 | 1.00 | 0.54 | 0.22 | 0.56 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
HJK Helsinki| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 0.77 | 1.06 | 0.88 | 1.14 | 0.64 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.05 | 0.86 | 1.23 | 0.92 | 0.78 | 0.78 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.25 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
Turku PS| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.67 | 1.07 | 0.47 | 0.87 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.59 | 0.64 | 0.77 | 0.54 | 0.33 | 0.78 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 2.00 | 0.75 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 25.5 fouls | 95.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 89.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 23.5 fouls | 88.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 88.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 10.5 corners | 81.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 80.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 4.5 cards | 78.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 21.5 fouls | 78.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 9.5 corners | 71.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/26 | A | 1-0 |
HJK Helsinki| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 11/07/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 01/07/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 27/06/26 | H | 0-4 | |
| 23/06/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 17/06/26 | H | 3-3 | |
| 13/06/26 | A | 2-5 | |
| 09/06/26 | A | 1-7 | |
| 30/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/05/26 | H | 11-1 |
Turku PS| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 11/07/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 04/07/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 27/06/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 23/06/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 17/06/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 13/06/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 30/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 27/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  KuPS | 21 | 43 | 57% | 2.0 | 38 | 22 | +16 | 2.9 | 86% | 48% | 29% | 8.1 | 33% | 1.9 | 11% | 19.9 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 57% |
| 2 |  Inter Turku | 21 | 39 | 48% | 1.9 | 28 | 16 | +12 | 2.1 | 67% | 33% | 19% | 10.7 | 67% | 2.3 | 14% | 19.7 | 57% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 58% |
| 3 |  Gnistan | 21 | 35 | 48% | 1.7 | 35 | 28 | +7 | 3.0 | 81% | 48% | 33% | 10.1 | 57% | 3.6 | 50% | 24.2 | 71% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 44% |
| 4 | HJK Helsinki | 21 | 34 | 48% | 1.6 | 34 | 26 | +8 | 2.9 | 71% | 57% | 29% | 7.0 | 14% | 3.0 | 43% | 18.4 | 43% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 55% |
| 5 |  VPS | 21 | 33 | 43% | 1.6 | 29 | 21 | +8 | 2.4 | 62% | 43% | 29% | 7.1 | 30% | 3.4 | 50% | 21.8 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 48% |
| 6 |  AC Oulu | 21 | 33 | 48% | 1.6 | 25 | 25 | +0 | 2.4 | 57% | 38% | 19% | 9.5 | 38% | 3.8 | 62% | 22.6 | 50% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 48% |
| 7 | Turku PS | 21 | 30 | 38% | 1.4 | 27 | 22 | +5 | 2.3 | 67% | 48% | 24% | 7.7 | 40% | 3.9 | 60% | 20.3 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 50% |
| 8 |  Lahti | 21 | 29 | 38% | 1.4 | 25 | 19 | +6 | 2.1 | 67% | 33% | 10% | 8.3 | 50% | 3.8 | 60% | 22.6 | 80% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 56% |
| 9 |  Ilves | 21 | 25 | 33% | 1.2 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 3.2 | 76% | 62% | 52% | 8.1 | 11% | 3.0 | 56% | 18.0 | 44% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 10 |  SJK | 21 | 18 | 19% | 0.9 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 2.8 | 86% | 57% | 29% | 9.0 | 57% | 3.9 | 57% | 20.4 | 57% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 50% |
| 11 |  FF Jaro | 21 | 15 | 14% | 0.7 | 18 | 42 | -24 | 2.9 | 81% | 57% | 29% | 8.4 | 30% | 3.1 | 40% | 19.2 | 50% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 47% |
| 12 |  Mariehamn | 21 | 11 | 10% | 0.5 | 15 | 43 | -28 | 2.8 | 86% | 48% | 24% | 10.5 | 70% | 3.0 | 64% | 21.3 | 64% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 45% |