This opponent (VPS) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VPS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.15
1.38
0.67
1.67
3.43
1.14
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (8)
2.25
1.12
0.75
1.50
3.75
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
3.00
1.67
1.00
3.00
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.7%
Under 1.5
10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
72.5%
Under 2.5
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
51.8%
Under 3.5
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
70.1%
No
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.0%
1-1
8.6%
1-3
6.8%
2-2
6.6%
0-2
6.0%
2-1
5.8%
2-3
5.0%
0-3
4.6%
HJK Helsinki goals ↓
VPS goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.1%
4.5%
6.0%
4.6%
2.6%
1
2.7%
8.6%
9.0%
6.8%
3.9%
2
2.6%
5.8%
6.6%
5.0%
2.9%
3
1.3%
2.9%
3.3%
2.5%
1.4%
4
0.5%
1.1%
1.2%
0.9%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = HJK Helsinki goals (down), columns = VPS goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
HJK Helsinki
2.15
KuPS
2.11
Honka
1.81
Haka
1.66
AC Oulu
1.55
VPS
1.42
Mariehamn
1.26
Ilves
1.26
SJK
1.25
Inter Turku
1.14
Lahti
0.78
HIFK Helsinki
0.33
HJK Helsinki is 0.73 points better than VPS in terms of average points per game (2.15 vs 1.42).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Honka
1.96
VPS
1.94
AC Oulu
1.66
KuPS
1.59
Ilves
1.59
HJK Helsinki
1.52
Mariehamn
1.52
Haka
1.52
Inter Turku
1.43
SJK
1.18
Lahti
0.96
HIFK Helsinki
0.74
HJK Helsinki is 0.42 goals worse than VPS in terms of goals scored per game (1.52 vs 1.94).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
KuPS
0.78
HJK Helsinki
0.85
Honka
1.00
SJK
1.39
AC Oulu
1.41
Haka
1.45
VPS
1.48
Inter Turku
1.50
Mariehamn
1.59
Ilves
1.59
Lahti
2.04
HIFK Helsinki
2.59
HJK Helsinki is 0.63 goals better than VPS in terms of goals conceded per game (0.85 vs 1.48).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
KuPS
57%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
51%
Honka
51%
Haka
50%
Inter Turku
49%
Lahti
49%
VPS
49%
HIFK Helsinki
48%
Ilves
47%
Mariehamn
47%
HJK Helsinki is 6.2 percentage points better than VPS in terms of average possession (55% vs 49%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
HJK Helsinki
For 8.8 · Against 3.9 · Total 12.7
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.3
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.6 · Against 12.7 · Total 27.3
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
VPS
For 3.7 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.1
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.3
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 7.9 · Total 20.9
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
HJK Helsinki
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (16)
11.7
10.0
13.1
4.4
3.1
5.6
26.0
26.3
25.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
11.6
9.8
14.7
5.0
3.4
7.7
27.0
27.0
27.0
vs Weaker (8)
11.7
10.5
12.2
3.8
2.7
4.4
25.1
25.0
25.2
% over line
73%
57%
88%
62%
50%
75%
77%
100%
57%
% under line
27%
43%
12%
38%
50%
25%
23%
0%
43%
This opponent (VPS) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VPS
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (13)
8.4
9.6
7.3
2.9
2.7
3.1
21.4
22.6
20.3
vs Stronger (2)
6.0
10.0
2.0
3.5
3.0
4.0
22.0
21.0
23.0
vs Similar (8)
9.3
10.3
8.3
2.2
2.2
2.2
20.3
20.7
20.0
vs Weaker (3)
8.0
7.0
8.5
4.3
4.0
4.5
23.0
30.0
19.5
% over line
27%
40%
17%
46%
33%
57%
55%
60%
50%
% under line
73%
60%
83%
54%
67%
43%
45%
40%
50%
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
HJK Helsinki
11.7
SJK
11.6
Honka
10.3
HIFK Helsinki
10.2
Mariehamn
10.2
Haka
10.1
Lahti
9.6
KuPS
9.3
Ilves
8.9
VPS
8.4
Inter Turku
8.1
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lahti
4.9
HJK Helsinki
4.7
HIFK Helsinki
4.4
Inter Turku
4.4
Mariehamn
4.3
SJK
4.2
KuPS
4.1
Haka
3.8
VPS
3.5
Ilves
3.5
Honka
3.4
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
HJK Helsinki
26.0
Mariehamn
25.7
Inter Turku
22.6
Lahti
22.4
HIFK Helsinki
22.0
VPS
21.4
Ilves
21.4
Haka
21.3
KuPS
20.2
Honka
17.5
SJK
17.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
55.1%
Under 9.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
56.0%
Under 3.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
59.4%
Under 21.5
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
HJK Helsinki
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.44
0.44
0.38
0.62
0.50
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.38
0.40
0.60
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.67
0.60
0.40
Clean sheet %
56% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (VPS) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VPS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.85
0.54
0.17
0.50
1.43
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.50
0.25
0.50
1.50
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
0.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
62% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
HJK Helsinki over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
HJK Helsinki
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.88
0.50
1.25
0.62
0.50
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.62
0.80
0.60
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.38
2.00
0.67
0.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
69% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (VPS) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VPS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.31
0.85
0.50
1.17
2.00
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
1.38
0.62
0.50
1.00
2.25
0.25
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
1.33
1.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
31% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
HJK Helsinki over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 2.5
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
BTTS Yes
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
HJK Helsinki
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
PÃŦrparim Hetemaj40%
Nassim Boujellab0%
Pyry Soiri0%
David Browne0%
Santeri Hostikka0%
Conor Hazard0%
Jukka Raitala0%
Santeri VÃĪÃĪnÃĪnen0%
Arttu Hoskonen0%
Miro Tenho0%
Lucas Lingman0%
Anthony Olusanya0%
Matti Peltola0%
Malik Abubakari0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
PÃŦrparim Hetemaj40%
Jukka Raitala40%
Nassim Boujellab33%
David Browne17%
Santeri Hostikka17%
Malik Abubakari17%
Pyry Soiri0%
Conor Hazard0%
Santeri VÃĪÃĪnÃĪnen0%
Arttu Hoskonen0%
Miro Tenho0%
Lucas Lingman0%
Anthony Olusanya0%
Matti Peltola0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Santeri Hostikka17%
Malik Abubakari17%
Nassim Boujellab0%
Pyry Soiri0%
PÃŦrparim Hetemaj0%
David Browne0%
Conor Hazard0%
Jukka Raitala0%
Santeri VÃĪÃĪnÃĪnen0%
Arttu Hoskonen0%
Miro Tenho0%
Lucas Lingman0%
Anthony Olusanya0%
Matti Peltola0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
PÃŦrparim Hetemaj20%
David Browne17%
Malik Abubakari17%
Nassim Boujellab0%
Pyry Soiri0%
Santeri Hostikka0%
Conor Hazard0%
Jukka Raitala0%
Santeri VÃĪÃĪnÃĪnen0%
Arttu Hoskonen0%
Miro Tenho0%
Lucas Lingman0%
Anthony Olusanya0%
Matti Peltola0%
VPS · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luka Smyth62%
Olavi Keturi25%
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi20%
A. RÃĪisÃĪnen14%
L. Mane14%
M. Haukioja10%
J. Turfkruier10%
K. Kouassivi-Benissan0%
S. Lindholm0%
M. Niemi0%
Y. Daoussi0%
Jonathan Muzinga0%
Paulo Lima0%
V. RÃķnnberg0%
E. Okereke0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Paulo Lima33%
J. Turfkruier30%
V. RÃķnnberg20%
K. Kouassivi-Benissan14%
S. Lindholm14%
A. RÃĪisÃĪnen14%
Y. Daoussi14%
L. Mane14%
Luka Smyth12%
M. Haukioja10%
M. Niemi0%
Jonathan Muzinga0%
E. Okereke0%
Olavi Keturi0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Turfkruier20%
K. Kouassivi-Benissan14%
Y. Daoussi14%
M. Haukioja10%
Jonathan Muzinga10%
S. Lindholm0%
A. RÃĪisÃĪnen0%
M. Niemi0%
Paulo Lima0%
V. RÃķnnberg0%
Luka Smyth0%
E. Okereke0%
Olavi Keturi0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
L. Mane0%
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. RÃĪisÃĪnen14%
Luka Smyth12%
K. Kouassivi-Benissan0%
M. Haukioja0%
S. Lindholm0%
M. Niemi0%
Y. Daoussi0%
Jonathan Muzinga0%
Paulo Lima0%
V. RÃķnnberg0%
J. Turfkruier0%
E. Okereke0%
Olavi Keturi0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
L. Mane0%
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
HAK (21)
€1m
HJK Helsinki's squad is €4m more valuable than VPS's (€7m vs €3m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
HAK (7)
€0m
HJK Helsinki's attack is €1m more valuable than VPS's (€2m vs €1m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
HAK (5)
€0m
HJK Helsinki and VPS have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
HAK (9)
€1m
HJK Helsinki's defence is €2m more valuable than VPS's (€3m vs €1m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
KuPS
Honka
Haka
AC Oulu
SJK
Ilves
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
Lahti
HIFK Helsinki