This opponent (Lillestrom) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lillestrom
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
0.80
1.85
0.62
2.53
0.94
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
5.00
-
-
2.00
5.00
vs Similar (13)
2.15
0.46
2.33
0.33
2.00
0.57
vs Weaker (16)
2.31
0.81
1.43
0.86
3.00
0.78
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Hønefoss) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.7%
Under 1.5
8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
76.8%
Under 2.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
57.4%
Under 3.5
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.9%
No
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
8.6%
1-3
7.9%
1-1
6.8%
0-2
6.8%
0-3
6.3%
1-4
5.5%
2-2
5.4%
2-3 ✓
5.0%
Hønefoss goals ↓
Lillestrom goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.4%
4.3%
6.8%
6.3%
4.4%
1
1.6%
6.8%
8.6%
7.9%
5.5%
2
1.4%
3.9%
5.4%
5.0%
3.5%
3
0.6%
1.6%
2.3%
2.1%
1.5%
4
0.2%
0.5%
0.7%
0.7%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hønefoss goals (down), columns = Lillestrom goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stabaek
2.60
Fredrikstad
2.50
Ham-Kam
2.50
Viking
2.50
Lillestrom
2.43
KFUM Oslo
2.40
Brann
2.33
Ranheim
2.33
Sogndal
2.33
Sarpsborg 08 FF
2.29
Asane
2.25
Rosenborg
2.20
Molde
2.00
Træff
2.00
Rana
2.00
Tromsdalen Uil
2.00
Alta
2.00
Lysekloster
2.00
Bodo/Glimt
2.00
Tromso
2.00
Sandefjord
2.00
Aalesund
2.00
Stromsgodset
2.00
Start
2.00
Lyn
2.00
Moss
2.00
Kongsvinger
2.00
Haugesund
2.00
Strommen
2.00
Kristiansund BK
1.83
Bryne
1.75
Egersund
1.75
Grorud
1.67
Bjarg
1.50
Junkeren
1.50
Lørenskog
1.50
Vidar
1.50
jerv
1.50
Levanger
1.50
Stjørdals-Blink
1.50
Eidsvold
1.50
Strindheim
1.50
Skeid
1.50
Kjelsås
1.50
Flint
1.50
Follo
1.50
Flekkerøy
1.50
Raufoss
1.50
Pors Grenland
1.33
Mjondalen
1.25
Djerv
1.00
Asker
1.00
Brattvåg
1.00
Arendal
1.00
Bærum
1.00
Nordstrand
1.00
Valerenga
1.00
Førde
0.92
Madla
0.92
Vigør
0.92
Vestfossen
0.92
Finnsnes
0.92
Gamle Oslo
0.50
Sotra
0.50
Nardo
0.50
Sandviken (Norway)
0.50
Ull/Kisa
0.50
hodd
0.50
Trygg/Lade
0.00
Vard
0.00
Gneist
0.00
Notodden
0.00
Brumunddal
0.00
Ulfstind
0.00
Spjelkavik
0.00
Råde
0.00
Hønefoss
0.00
Eik-Tønsberg
0.00
ODD Ballklubb
0.00
Sandnes ULF
0.00
Hønefoss is 2.43 points worse than Lillestrom in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 2.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kongsvinger
6.00
Alta
4.67
Haugesund
4.67
Levanger
4.50
Rosenborg
4.40
Bodo/Glimt
4.33
Tromso
3.67
Molde
3.50
Follo
3.50
Fredrikstad
3.25
Brann
3.00
Stromsgodset
3.00
Start
3.00
Viking
3.00
Stabaek
3.00
Strommen
3.00
Sogndal
3.00
Kristiansund BK
2.83
Asane
2.75
Egersund
2.75
Sarpsborg 08 FF
2.71
Tromsdalen Uil
2.67
Sandefjord
2.67
Ranheim
2.67
Eidsvold
2.50
Lysekloster
2.50
Raufoss
2.50
Lillestrom
2.29
KFUM Oslo
2.20
Rana
2.00
Asker
2.00
Grorud
2.00
Mjondalen
2.00
Bærum
2.00
Ull/Kisa
2.00
Nordstrand
2.00
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Moss
2.00
Aalesund
1.80
Ham-Kam
1.75
Bryne
1.75
Lyn
1.67
Træff
1.50
Bjarg
1.50
Junkeren
1.50
Lørenskog
1.50
Vidar
1.50
jerv
1.50
Nardo
1.50
Skeid
1.50
Flint
1.50
Flekkerøy
1.50
Førde
1.44
Madla
1.44
Vigør
1.44
Vestfossen
1.44
Finnsnes
1.44
Pors Grenland
1.33
Djerv
1.00
Gamle Oslo
1.00
Brattvåg
1.00
Stjørdals-Blink
1.00
Arendal
1.00
Brumunddal
1.00
Råde
1.00
Eik-Tønsberg
1.00
Valerenga
1.00
hodd
1.00
Sotra
0.50
Strindheim
0.50
Kjelsås
0.50
Sandviken (Norway)
0.50
Trygg/Lade
0.00
Vard
0.00
Gneist
0.00
Notodden
0.00
Ulfstind
0.00
Spjelkavik
0.00
Hønefoss
0.00
Sandnes ULF
0.00
Hønefoss is 2.29 goals worse than Lillestrom in terms of goals scored per game (0.00 vs 2.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Viking
0.17
Brann
0.33
Tromso
0.33
Lillestrom
0.43
Træff
0.50
Fredrikstad
0.50
jerv
0.50
Ham-Kam
0.50
Stromsgodset
0.50
KFUM Oslo
0.60
Bodo/Glimt
0.67
Molde
0.75
Rosenborg
0.80
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.00
Djerv
1.00
Trygg/Lade
1.00
Lørenskog
1.00
Vidar
1.00
Brattvåg
1.00
Levanger
1.00
Stjørdals-Blink
1.00
Arendal
1.00
Eidsvold
1.00
Hønefoss
1.00
Sandefjord
1.00
Valerenga
1.00
Aalesund
1.00
Lyn
1.00
Bryne
1.00
Haugesund
1.00
Stabaek
1.20
Grorud
1.33
Alta
1.33
Kristiansund BK
1.33
Moss
1.33
Sogndal
1.33
Bjarg
1.50
Sotra
1.50
Strindheim
1.50
Skeid
1.50
Kjelsås
1.50
Lysekloster
1.50
Raufoss
1.50
Egersund
1.50
Pors Grenland
1.67
Rana
1.67
Tromsdalen Uil
1.67
Ranheim
1.67
Strommen
1.67
Mjondalen
1.75
Kongsvinger
1.75
Asker
2.00
Vard
2.00
Gneist
2.00
Spjelkavik
2.00
Råde
2.00
Bærum
2.00
Flekkerøy
2.00
Nordstrand
2.00
Start
2.00
hodd
2.00
Sandnes ULF
2.00
Asane
2.25
Sandviken (Norway)
2.50
Follo
2.50
Ull/Kisa
2.50
Førde
2.68
Madla
2.68
Vigør
2.68
Vestfossen
2.68
Finnsnes
2.68
Junkeren
3.00
Notodden
3.00
Ulfstind
3.00
Nardo
3.00
ODD Ballklubb
3.00
Gamle Oslo
3.50
Flint
3.50
Brumunddal
4.00
Eik-Tønsberg
4.00
Hønefoss is 0.57 goals worse than Lillestrom in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hønefoss or Draw✗ Miss
31.6%
Avg Implied -
14%
17%
68%
covers Hønefoss + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hønefoss or Lillestrom✓ Hit
82.8%
Avg Implied -
14%
17%
68%
covers Hønefoss + Lillestrom
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Lillestrom✓ Hit
85.6%
Avg Implied -
14%
17%
68%
covers Draw + Lillestrom
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hønefoss over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.8%
Under
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hønefoss over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
36.0%
Under
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hønefoss over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hønefoss over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lillestrom over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
93.8%
Under
6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lillestrom over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
76.5%
Under
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lillestrom over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
52.4%
Under
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lillestrom over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
30.2%
Under
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hønefoss, so a minus line means Hønefoss give that many goals of a start and Lillestrom receive them. At -1, Hønefoss must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hønefoss win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hønefoss)Actual: Lillestrom
Hønefoss -2
1.8%
Draw -2
4.0%
Lillestrom +2
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Hønefoss)Actual: Lillestrom
Hønefoss -1
5.8%
Draw -1
8.6%
Lillestrom +1
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Hønefoss)Actual: Draw
Hønefoss +1
31.6%
Draw +1
19.6%
Lillestrom -1
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Hønefoss)Actual: Hønefoss
Hønefoss +2
51.2%
Draw +2
19.1%
Lillestrom -2
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hønefoss
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.25
1.50
0.25
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.33
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
75% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Lillestrom) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lillestrom
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.40
1.00
0.15
1.12
0.59
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.23
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.43
vs Weaker (16)
1.12
0.44
1.00
0.29
1.22
0.56
Clean sheet %
70% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Hønefoss) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hønefoss over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hønefoss over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hønefoss over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lillestrom over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lillestrom over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lillestrom over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hønefoss
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
0.50
0.75
0.50
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Lillestrom) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lillestrom
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.40
0.85
0.46
1.41
0.35
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (13)
1.15
0.23
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.14
vs Weaker (16)
1.19
0.38
0.43
0.57
1.78
0.22
Clean sheet %
70% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Hønefoss) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hønefoss over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hønefoss over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hønefoss over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lillestrom over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lillestrom over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lillestrom over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 3.5 goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 1.5 goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lillestrom
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Thomas Lehne Olsen25%
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim24%
Felix Vá22%
Markus Karlsbakk20%
Fredrik Gulbrandsen17%
Salieu Drammeh17%
Lars Ranger12%
Camil Jebara9%
Karl Linus Alperud9%
Kparobo Arierhi9%
Ulrik Jenssen0%
Pontus Dahlberg0%
Ruben Gabrielsen0%
Ylldren Ibrahimaj0%
Kevin Martin Krygard0%
Sander Moen Foss0%
Espen Bjørnsen Garnås0%
Eric Kitolano0%
Sturla Ottesen0%
Yaw Paintsil0%
Gustav Nordh0%
Frederik Elkær0%
Stian Kristiansen0%
Harald Woxen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ylldren Ibrahimaj35%
Harald Woxen27%
Stian Kristiansen25%
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim24%
Frederik Elkær20%
Fredrik Gulbrandsen17%
Markus Karlsbakk13%
Kevin Martin Krygard12%
Lars Ranger12%
Pontus Dahlberg11%
Sander Moen Foss11%
Ulrik Jenssen10%
Camil Jebara9%
Yaw Paintsil8%
Ruben Gabrielsen7%
Felix Vá6%
Thomas Lehne Olsen0%
Espen Bjørnsen Garnås0%
Eric Kitolano0%
Sturla Ottesen0%
Gustav Nordh0%
Salieu Drammeh0%
Karl Linus Alperud0%
Kparobo Arierhi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Felix Vá22%
Fredrik Gulbrandsen17%
Ylldren Ibrahimaj12%
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim12%
Frederik Elkær10%
Thomas Lehne Olsen8%
Yaw Paintsil8%
Salieu Drammeh8%
Lars Ranger6%
Ulrik Jenssen0%
Pontus Dahlberg0%
Ruben Gabrielsen0%
Kevin Martin Krygard0%
Markus Karlsbakk0%
Sander Moen Foss0%
Espen Bjørnsen Garnås0%
Eric Kitolano0%
Sturla Ottesen0%
Gustav Nordh0%
Camil Jebara0%
Stian Kristiansen0%
Karl Linus Alperud0%
Harald Woxen0%
Kparobo Arierhi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thomas Lehne Olsen33%
Salieu Drammeh17%
Markus Karlsbakk13%
Lars Ranger6%
Felix Vá6%
Fredrik Gulbrandsen0%
Ulrik Jenssen0%
Pontus Dahlberg0%
Ruben Gabrielsen0%
Ylldren Ibrahimaj0%
Kevin Martin Krygard0%
Sander Moen Foss0%
Espen Bjørnsen Garnås0%
Eric Kitolano0%
Sturla Ottesen0%
Yaw Paintsil0%
Gustav Nordh0%
Frederik Elkær0%
Camil Jebara0%
Stian Kristiansen0%
Karl Linus Alperud0%
Harald Woxen0%
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim0%
Kparobo Arierhi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Norway: Eliteserien 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: Eliteserien stats & trends →