The contest between Hobro and Esbjerg is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win. The expected total goals hover around 3.1, but the most likely total is two, a 23% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.8% probability. Hobro, playing at home against a similarly strong opponent, averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Esbjerg, on the road, averages 1.71 goals scored and 1.79 conceded. The probabilities for the match outcome are 38% for a Hobro win, 26% for a draw, and 36% for an Esbjerg win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.5%), Under 6.5 (96.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.5%), Under 5.5 (90.3%), Over 1.5 (82.9%), Home +2 handicap (81.7%), and Away +2 handicap (80.9%). Both sides are coming off defeats, adding to the uncertainty.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hobro win
37.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg win
36.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hobro
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.43
1.19
1.75
1.64
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
4.00
1.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.22
1.39
1.17
1.50
1.27
1.27
vs Weaker (6)
2.17
1.17
1.33
2.00
3.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Esbjerg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.50
1.50
1.29
1.88
1.69
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
2.00
4.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.56
1.40
1.36
0.91
1.71
1.79
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
1.33
2.00
2.00
6.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Hobro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.9%
Under 1.5
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.4%
Under 2.5
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.0%
Under 3.5
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
63.5%
No
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.3%
2-2
6.5%
1-0
5.9%
0-1
5.7%
0-0
5.5%
2-0
5.5%
Hobro goals ↓
Esbjerg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
5.7%
5.3%
2.7%
1.1%
1
5.9%
12%
8.3%
4.3%
1.7%
2
5.5%
8.5%
6.5%
3.4%
1.3%
3
2.9%
4.4%
3.4%
1.8%
0.7%
4
1.1%
1.7%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hobro goals (down), columns = Esbjerg goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hvidovre
2.33
Vejle
2.33
Hobro
2.00
FC Fredericia
1.50
Aarhus Fremad
1.50
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Aalborg
1.33
Kolding IF
1.00
AB Copenhagen
1.00
Esbjerg
0.67
Hillerød
0.67
HB Koge
0.33
Hobro is 1.33 points better than Esbjerg in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vejle
2.67
Hvidovre
1.67
Hillerød
1.67
FC Fredericia
1.50
Hobro
1.50
Kolding IF
1.33
AB Copenhagen
1.33
Esbjerg
1.33
Aarhus Fremad
1.17
Vendsyssel FF
1.17
Aalborg
0.83
HB Koge
0.50
Hobro is 0.17 goals better than Esbjerg in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Fredericia
0.67
Hvidovre
0.83
Aarhus Fremad
0.83
AB Copenhagen
1.17
Aalborg
1.17
Hobro
1.33
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Kolding IF
1.50
Vejle
1.67
HB Koge
2.00
Hillerød
2.00
Esbjerg
2.17
Hobro is 0.83 goals better than Esbjerg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 2.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hobro or Draw
63.5%
Avg Implied -
38%
26%
36%
covers Hobro + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hobro or Esbjerg
74.1%
Avg Implied -
38%
26%
36%
covers Hobro + Esbjerg
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Esbjerg
62.4%
Avg Implied -
38%
26%
36%
covers Draw + Esbjerg
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hobro over/under 0.5
Over
79.3%
Under
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 1.5
Over
46.7%
Under
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 2.5
Over
21.0%
Under
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 3.5
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 0.5
Over
78.7%
Under
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 1.5
Over
45.8%
Under
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 2.5
Over
20.3%
Under
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 3.5
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hobro, so a minus line means Hobro give that many goals of a start and Esbjerg receive them. At -1, Hobro must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hobro win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hobro)
Hobro -2
7.6%
Draw -2
11.5%
Esbjerg +2
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Hobro)
Hobro -1
19.1%
Draw -1
18.5%
Esbjerg +1
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Hobro)
Hobro +1
63.5%
Draw +1
18.2%
Esbjerg -1
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Hobro)
Hobro +2
81.7%
Draw +2
11.1%
Esbjerg -2
7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hobro
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
0.62
0.88
0.71
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.74
0.58
0.83
0.36
0.64
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
0.67
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Esbjerg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.60
0.64
0.71
1.06
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.48
0.55
0.45
0.93
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Hobro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hobro over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hobro
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
0.56
0.88
0.93
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.74
0.65
0.58
0.67
0.91
0.64
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.50
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Esbjerg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Esbjerg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.90
0.86
0.57
0.81
1.19
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.92
0.82
0.45
0.79
1.29
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Hobro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hobro over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esbjerg over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (24)
€10m
VEJ (22)
€9m
FF (17)
€8m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
VF (3)
€1m
AC (3)
€1m
Hobro and Esbjerg have a similar squad value (both €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEJ (7)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
FF (5)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
AC (1)
€0m
Hobro and Esbjerg have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FF (5)
€3m
VEJ (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
Hobro and Esbjerg have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
VEJ (9)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
VF (0)
€0m
Hobro and Esbjerg have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Denmark: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vejle
Hvidovre
FC Fredericia
Aarhus Fremad
Vendsyssel FF
Aalborg
AB Copenhagen
Kolding IF
Hillerød
HB Koge