The model favours an away win, with Vejle’s probability at 52 %, a draw at 26 %, and Hobro at 22 %. The expected total is 2.7 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.5 % chance. Hobro, at home against a similarly strong opponent, averages 1.15 goals scored and 1.69 conceded, while Vejle, on the road, averages 1.17 scored and 1.67 conceded. Hobro’s recent form shows a four-game winning streak, ending 2-1 over Aalborg, whereas Vejle’s four-game winning run finished 4-2 against Esbjerg. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.9 %), Under 6.5 (97.8 %), Under 5.5 (93.9 %), Away +2 handicap (91.7 %), Home under 2.5 goals (91.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (90.4 %), and Under 4.5 (85.5 %). These picks reflect the expected low-scoring nature of the encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hobro win
21.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vejle win
50.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hobro
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.43
1.19
1.75
1.64
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
4.00
1.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.22
1.39
1.17
1.50
1.27
1.27
vs Weaker (6)
2.17
1.17
1.33
2.00
3.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Vejle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vejle
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.67
2.00
1.57
1.44
1.75
vs Stronger (5)
1.60
2.20
1.67
1.67
1.50
3.00
vs Similar (23)
1.65
1.61
2.10
1.50
1.31
1.69
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
2.00
2.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Hobro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
71.6%
Under 1.5
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
44.5%
Under 2.5
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
23.3%
Under 3.5
76.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.4%
No
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
0-1
12.0%
0-2
10.1%
0-0
9.8%
1-2
9.3%
1-0
6.7%
2-1
5.6%
0-3
5.2%
Hobro goals ↓
Vejle goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
12%
10%
5.2%
2.0%
1
6.7%
13%
9.3%
4.8%
1.8%
2
3.6%
5.6%
4.3%
2.2%
0.8%
3
1.1%
1.7%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hobro goals (down), columns = Vejle goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hvidovre
2.33
Vejle
2.33
Hobro
2.00
Aarhus Fremad
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Aalborg
1.33
Kolding IF
1.00
AB Copenhagen
1.00
Hillerød
0.67
Esbjerg
0.67
HB Koge
0.33
Hobro is 0.33 points worse than Vejle in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 2.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vejle
2.67
Hillerød
1.67
Hvidovre
1.67
Hobro
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Kolding IF
1.33
AB Copenhagen
1.33
Esbjerg
1.33
Aarhus Fremad
1.17
Vendsyssel FF
1.17
Aalborg
0.83
HB Koge
0.50
Hobro is 1.17 goals worse than Vejle in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 2.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Fredericia
0.67
Aarhus Fremad
0.83
Hvidovre
0.83
Aalborg
1.17
AB Copenhagen
1.17
Hobro
1.33
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Kolding IF
1.50
Vejle
1.67
HB Koge
2.00
Hillerød
2.00
Esbjerg
2.17
Hobro is 0.33 goals better than Vejle in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hobro or Draw
49.5%
Avg Implied -
21%
28%
51%
covers Hobro + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hobro or Vejle
71.9%
Avg Implied -
21%
28%
51%
covers Hobro + Vejle
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Vejle
78.6%
Avg Implied -
21%
28%
51%
covers Draw + Vejle
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hobro over/under 0.5
Over
60.1%
Under
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 1.5
Over
23.5%
Under
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 2.5
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 3.5
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vejle over/under 0.5
Over
78.5%
Under
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vejle over/under 1.5
Over
45.4%
Under
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vejle over/under 2.5
Over
20.0%
Under
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vejle over/under 3.5
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hobro, so a minus line means Hobro give that many goals of a start and Vejle receive them. At -1, Hobro must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hobro win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hobro)
Hobro -2
2.0%
Draw -2
5.7%
Vejle +2
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Hobro)
Hobro -1
7.6%
Draw -1
13.7%
Vejle +1
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Hobro)
Hobro +1
49.5%
Draw +1
23.7%
Vejle -1
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Hobro)
Hobro +2
73.2%
Draw +2
15.8%
Vejle -2
10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hobro
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
0.62
0.88
0.71
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.74
0.58
0.83
0.36
0.64
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
0.67
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Vejle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vejle
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.43
0.71
0.56
0.88
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.60
0.33
0.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.87
0.40
0.80
0.62
0.92
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Hobro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.1%
Under 0.5
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.2%
Under 1.5
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.7%
Under 2.5
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hobro over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.8%
Under
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.1%
Under
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vejle over/under 0.5 HT
Over
52.9%
Under
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vejle over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.7%
Under
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vejle over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hobro
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
0.56
0.88
0.93
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.74
0.65
0.58
0.67
0.91
0.64
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.50
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Vejle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vejle
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.87
1.57
0.86
0.88
0.88
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
1.60
1.33
1.33
1.50
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.13
0.74
1.70
0.70
0.69
0.77
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Hobro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.8%
Under 0.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.3%
Under 1.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.3%
Under 2.5
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hobro over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.0%
Under
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.9%
Under
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hobro over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vejle over/under 0.5 2H
Over
60.2%
Under
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vejle over/under 1.5 2H
Over
27.1%
Under
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vejle over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Vejle · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Anders Jacobsen25%
Christian Gammelgaard25%
Mikkel Duelund24%
Stefan Velkov20%
Jelle Duin17%
Tobias Bach15%
Amin Chiakha14%
Yusuf Faghir13%
Giorgi Tabatadze9%
Andrew Hjulsager8%
Abdoulaye Camara5%
Bismark Edjeodji4%
Lasse Flø4%
Lasse Nielsen0%
Thomas Gundelund0%
Jonathan Amon0%
Christian Sørensen0%
Alexi Pitu0%
Igor Vekić0%
Masaki Murata0%
Mike Vestergård0%
Mads Enggård0%
Valdemar Lund0%
Tobias Haahr Jakobsen0%
Tobias Lauritsen0%
Anders Sønderskov0%
Max Jensen0%
Hjalte Gitz0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Giorgi Tabatadze36%
Stefan Velkov30%
Lasse Nielsen26%
Mads Enggård20%
Tobias Bach20%
Mike Vestergård19%
Andrew Hjulsager17%
Bismark Edjeodji17%
Mikkel Duelund16%
Alexi Pitu12%
Valdemar Lund11%
Christian Sørensen8%
Amin Chiakha7%
Lasse Flø7%
Thomas Gundelund7%
Tobias Lauritsen7%
Christian Gammelgaard6%
Igor Vekić4%
Anders Jacobsen0%
Jonathan Amon0%
Jelle Duin0%
Masaki Murata0%
Yusuf Faghir0%
Tobias Haahr Jakobsen0%
Anders Sønderskov0%
Abdoulaye Camara0%
Max Jensen0%
Hjalte Gitz0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andrew Hjulsager17%
Tobias Bach15%
Anders Jacobsen12%
Christian Gammelgaard12%
Christian Sørensen12%
Giorgi Tabatadze9%
Lasse Flø7%
Thomas Gundelund7%
Tobias Lauritsen7%
Bismark Edjeodji4%
Mikkel Duelund4%
Mads Enggård4%
Lasse Nielsen4%
Mike Vestergård3%
Jonathan Amon0%
Stefan Velkov0%
Jelle Duin0%
Alexi Pitu0%
Igor Vekić0%
Masaki Murata0%
Yusuf Faghir0%
Valdemar Lund0%
Tobias Haahr Jakobsen0%
Amin Chiakha0%
Anders Sønderskov0%
Abdoulaye Camara0%
Max Jensen0%
Hjalte Gitz0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Amin Chiakha21%
Yusuf Faghir13%
Andrew Hjulsager12%
Mikkel Duelund12%
Tobias Bach10%
Christian Gammelgaard9%
Stefan Velkov5%
Christian Sørensen4%
Lasse Nielsen0%
Thomas Gundelund0%
Anders Jacobsen0%
Jonathan Amon0%
Jelle Duin0%
Alexi Pitu0%
Igor Vekić0%
Masaki Murata0%
Mike Vestergård0%
Mads Enggård0%
Valdemar Lund0%
Tobias Haahr Jakobsen0%
Giorgi Tabatadze0%
Tobias Lauritsen0%
Lasse Flø0%
Anders Sønderskov0%
Bismark Edjeodji0%
Abdoulaye Camara0%
Max Jensen0%
Hjalte Gitz0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (24)
€10m
VEJ (22)
€9m
FF (17)
€8m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
VF (3)
€1m
AC (3)
€1m
Hobro's squad is €2m less valuable than Vejle's (€7m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEJ (7)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
FF (5)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
AC (1)
€0m
Hobro's attack is €2m less valuable than Vejle's (€2m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FF (5)
€3m
VEJ (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
Hobro and Vejle have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
VEJ (9)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
VF (0)
€0m
Hobro and Vejle have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Denmark: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Hvidovre
FC Fredericia
Aarhus Fremad
Vendsyssel FF
Aalborg
AB Copenhagen
Kolding IF
Hillerød
Esbjerg
HB Koge