This opponent (Arminia Bielefeld) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arminia Bielefeld
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
0.83
1.73
0.73
2.07
0.93
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.20
1.00
vs Similar (20)
2.15
0.75
2.09
0.73
2.22
0.78
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
5.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.4%
Under 1.5
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.0%
@ 1.73+3.4%
Under 2.5
42.0%
@ 2.08-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.6%
Under 3.5
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.5%
No
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
1-2 ✓
8.9%
2-1
7.8%
0-1
6.8%
0-2
6.3%
2-2
6.3%
0-0
6.0%
1-0
5.8%
Holstein Kiel goals ↓
Arminia Bielefeld goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
6.8%
6.3%
3.4%
1.4%
1
5.8%
12%
8.9%
4.8%
1.9%
2
4.9%
7.8%
6.3%
3.4%
1.4%
3
2.3%
3.7%
2.9%
1.6%
0.6%
4
0.8%
1.3%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Holstein Kiel goals (down), columns = Arminia Bielefeld goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arminia Bielefeld
2.00
VfB Stuttgart
1.71
1. FC Heidenheim
1.62
Hamburger SV
1.59
SV Darmstadt 98
1.53
Hannover 96
1.41
Erzgebirge Aue
1.38
VfL Bochum
1.35
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.29
Holstein Kiel
1.26
SV Sandhausen
1.26
Regensburg
1.26
VfL Osnabrück
1.18
FC St. Pauli
1.15
Karlsruher SC
1.09
1. FC Nürnberg
1.09
Wehen
1.00
Dynamo Dresden
0.94
Holstein Kiel is 0.74 points worse than Arminia Bielefeld in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Arminia Bielefeld
1.91
Hamburger SV
1.82
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
Hannover 96
1.59
Holstein Kiel
1.56
VfL Bochum
1.56
Regensburg
1.47
SV Darmstadt 98
1.41
VfL Osnabrück
1.35
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.35
Erzgebirge Aue
1.35
Karlsruher SC
1.32
Wehen
1.32
1. FC Heidenheim
1.32
1. FC Nürnberg
1.32
SV Sandhausen
1.26
FC St. Pauli
1.21
Dynamo Dresden
0.94
Holstein Kiel is 0.35 goals worse than Arminia Bielefeld in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 1.91).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arminia Bielefeld
0.88
1. FC Heidenheim
1.06
VfB Stuttgart
1.21
SV Darmstadt 98
1.26
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.32
SV Sandhausen
1.32
Hamburger SV
1.35
VfL Osnabrück
1.41
Erzgebirge Aue
1.41
Hannover 96
1.44
FC St. Pauli
1.47
VfL Bochum
1.50
Karlsruher SC
1.65
Holstein Kiel
1.65
Regensburg
1.65
Dynamo Dresden
1.71
1. FC Nürnberg
1.71
Wehen
1.91
Holstein Kiel is 0.76 goals worse than Arminia Bielefeld in terms of goals conceded per game (1.65 vs 0.88).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Holstein Kiel
For 5.6 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 3.2 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.7 · Against 12.9 · Total 20.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arminia Bielefeld
For 5.6 · Against 4.4 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 10.6 · Total 19.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Holstein Kiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.4
11.0
11.8
3.9
4.0
3.7
24.4
25.4
23.5
vs Stronger (4)
9.8
10.3
8.0
4.8
4.3
6.0
23.5
24.3
21.0
vs Similar (31)
11.5
10.8
11.9
3.6
4.0
3.3
24.5
25.5
23.8
vs Weaker (15)
11.7
11.6
11.9
4.1
4.0
4.3
24.5
25.8
23.1
% over line
56%
50%
62%
54%
58%
50%
72%
79%
65%
% under line
44%
50%
38%
46%
42%
50%
28%
21%
35%
This opponent (Arminia Bielefeld) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arminia Bielefeld
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.7
9.6
3.9
4.0
3.8
23.7
23.6
23.9
vs Stronger (14)
8.0
7.5
8.4
3.4
4.0
2.9
21.1
23.0
19.6
vs Similar (34)
10.3
10.2
10.4
4.1
4.0
4.2
24.9
23.8
26.1
vs Weaker (2)
10.5
15.0
6.0
4.5
4.0
5.0
23.0
22.0
24.0
% over line
44%
48%
40%
54%
56%
52%
66%
64%
68%
% under line
56%
52%
60%
46%
44%
48%
34%
36%
32%
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Regensburg
11.6
Holstein Kiel
11.4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
11.1
Karlsruher SC
10.8
SV Sandhausen
10.8
1. FC Heidenheim
10.6
SV Darmstadt 98
10.5
VfB Stuttgart
10.5
VfL Bochum
10.4
1. FC Nürnberg
10.3
FC St. Pauli
10.3
Hannover 96
10.0
Wehen
10.0
Hamburger SV
9.9
Erzgebirge Aue
9.7
VfL Osnabrück
9.7
Arminia Bielefeld
9.6
Dynamo Dresden
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Erzgebirge Aue
5.4
VfL Osnabrück
5.2
SV Sandhausen
4.7
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
4.6
Wehen
4.6
Karlsruher SC
4.6
Dynamo Dresden
4.5
Regensburg
4.4
VfB Stuttgart
4.3
VfL Bochum
4.2
SV Darmstadt 98
4.2
Hannover 96
4.0
1. FC Nürnberg
3.9
Arminia Bielefeld
3.9
FC St. Pauli
3.9
Holstein Kiel
3.9
Hamburger SV
3.7
1. FC Heidenheim
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Regensburg
28.3
Dynamo Dresden
27.8
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
27.8
VfL Osnabrück
27.3
VfL Bochum
27.1
SV Sandhausen
26.9
Erzgebirge Aue
26.7
SV Darmstadt 98
25.6
Karlsruher SC
25.5
Hannover 96
25.4
FC St. Pauli
24.8
Holstein Kiel
24.4
Hamburger SV
24.2
Wehen
24.2
1. FC Heidenheim
23.9
VfB Stuttgart
23.8
Arminia Bielefeld
23.7
1. FC Nürnberg
23.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.5%
Under 9.5
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
58.1%
Under 3.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
59.6%
Under 21.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Holstein Kiel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
0.79
0.57
0.75
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.58
0.75
0.62
0.45
0.55
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.62
0.75
0.75
1.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Arminia Bielefeld) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arminia Bielefeld
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.30
0.60
0.40
0.80
0.20
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.60
0.40
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.20
0.82
0.36
0.67
0.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Holstein Kiel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Holstein Kiel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.97
0.71
0.79
0.88
1.12
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.79
0.75
0.38
0.73
1.09
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
1.38
0.50
1.25
1.25
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Arminia Bielefeld) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arminia Bielefeld
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.53
1.13
0.33
1.27
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.50
0.67
0.33
0.60
0.60
vs Similar (20)
1.40
0.55
1.27
0.36
1.56
0.78
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Holstein Kiel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Holstein Kiel · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Phil Harres75%
Guillermo Balzi50%
Jonas Therkelsen25%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kasper Davidsen75%
Ivan Nekić50%
Jonas Therkelsen50%
Hiroki Sekine50%
Timon Weiner33%
Leon Parduzi33%
Jonas Meffert25%
Guillermo Balzi25%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Phil Harres0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Phil Harres50%
Adrián Kaprálik50%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Guillermo Balzi0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Phil Harres75%
Guillermo Balzi25%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Arminia Bielefeld · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joel Grodowski50%
Marvin Mehlem25%
Stefano Russo25%
Marius Wörl25%
Sam Schreck0%
Arne Sicker0%
Maximilian Bauer0%
Tim Handwerker0%
Roberts Uldriķis0%
Isaiah Young0%
Jonas Thomas Kersken0%
Jannik Rochelt0%
Monju Momuluh0%
Maximilian Großer0%
Henri Koudossou0%
Benjamin Boakye0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Arne Sicker33%
Sam Schreck25%
Tim Handwerker25%
Joel Grodowski25%
Benjamin Boakye25%
Marvin Mehlem0%
Maximilian Bauer0%
Roberts Uldriķis0%
Stefano Russo0%
Isaiah Young0%
Jonas Thomas Kersken0%
Jannik Rochelt0%
Monju Momuluh0%
Maximilian Großer0%
Henri Koudossou0%
Marius Wörl0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Maximilian Bauer25%
Isaiah Young25%
Henri Koudossou25%
Sam Schreck0%
Arne Sicker0%
Marvin Mehlem0%
Tim Handwerker0%
Roberts Uldriķis0%
Stefano Russo0%
Joel Grodowski0%
Jonas Thomas Kersken0%
Jannik Rochelt0%
Monju Momuluh0%
Maximilian Großer0%
Benjamin Boakye0%
Marius Wörl0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joel Grodowski50%
Sam Schreck0%
Arne Sicker0%
Marvin Mehlem0%
Maximilian Bauer0%
Tim Handwerker0%
Roberts Uldriķis0%
Stefano Russo0%
Isaiah Young0%
Jonas Thomas Kersken0%
Jannik Rochelt0%
Monju Momuluh0%
Maximilian Großer0%
Henri Koudossou0%
Benjamin Boakye0%
Marius Wörl0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VS (54)
€430m
HS (28)
€117m
FSP (27)
€46m
1FN (28)
€40m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
H9 (26)
€33m
KS (25)
€31m
SD9 (28)
€24m
VB (24)
€19m
DD (26)
€19m
SGF (24)
€19m
AB (23)
€18m
VO (25)
€10m
EA (18)
€2m
Holstein Kiel's squad is €17m more valuable than Arminia Bielefeld's (€34m vs €18m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VS (19)
€193m
HS (11)
€46m
KS (7)
€16m
1FH (11)
€15m
1FN (9)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
FSP (7)
€10m
H9 (9)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
AB (8)
€7m
DD (8)
€6m
VB (9)
€6m
VO (9)
€5m
SGF (6)
€4m
EA (5)
€1m
Holstein Kiel's attack is €5m more valuable than Arminia Bielefeld's (€12m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VS (10)
€92m
HS (5)
€34m
FSP (8)
€15m
1FN (6)
€13m
H9 (8)
€11m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
SGF (8)
€5m
VB (4)
€5m
DD (4)
€4m
KS (6)
€4m
AB (5)
€4m
VO (7)
€3m
EA (5)
€1m
Holstein Kiel's midfield is €3m more valuable than Arminia Bielefeld's (€7m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VS (25)
€145m
HS (12)
€37m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
1FN (13)
€12m
1FH (11)
€12m
H9 (9)
€12m
KS (12)
€12m
SGF (10)
€9m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
VB (11)
€8m
AB (10)
€7m
VO (9)
€3m
EA (8)
€1m
Holstein Kiel's defence is €8m more valuable than Arminia Bielefeld's (€16m vs €7m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
VfB Stuttgart
1. FC Heidenheim
Hamburger SV
SV Darmstadt 98
Hannover 96
Erzgebirge Aue
VfL Bochum
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
SV Sandhausen
VfL Osnabrück
FC St. Pauli
Karlsruher SC
1. FC Nürnberg
Dynamo Dresden