This opponent (Dynamo Dresden) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dynamo Dresden
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.50
1.21
1.21
0.69
1.75
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.12
0.75
1.00
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (21)
0.95
1.62
1.40
1.30
0.55
1.91
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
2.00
-
-
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.9%
Under 1.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.5%
@ 1.85+0.2%
Under 2.5
48.5%
@ 1.95-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.3%
Under 3.5
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.8%
No
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
2-1 ✓
9.6%
1-0
9.5%
2-0
8.7%
0-0
7.7%
1-2
6.4%
0-1
5.9%
3-1
5.2%
Holstein Kiel goals ↓
Dynamo Dresden goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
5.9%
3.9%
1.4%
0.4%
1
9.5%
13%
6.4%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.7%
9.6%
5.2%
1.9%
0.5%
3
4.8%
5.2%
2.9%
1.0%
0.3%
4
2.0%
2.1%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Holstein Kiel goals (down), columns = Dynamo Dresden goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Schalke 04
1.91
Werder Bremen
1.85
Hamburger SV
1.76
SV Darmstadt 98
1.76
FC St. Pauli
1.68
1. FC Heidenheim
1.53
SC Paderborn 07
1.50
1. FC Nürnberg
1.50
Holstein Kiel
1.32
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.29
Hannover 96
1.24
Karlsruher SC
1.21
Hansa Rostock
1.21
SV Sandhausen
1.21
Regensburg
1.18
Dynamo Dresden
0.94
Erzgebirge Aue
0.76
Ingolstadt
0.62
Holstein Kiel is 0.38 points better than Dynamo Dresden in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 0.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Schalke 04
2.12
SV Darmstadt 98
2.09
Hamburger SV
1.97
Werder Bremen
1.91
FC St. Pauli
1.79
SC Paderborn 07
1.65
Karlsruher SC
1.59
Regensburg
1.47
1. FC Nürnberg
1.44
Holstein Kiel
1.35
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.32
1. FC Heidenheim
1.26
SV Sandhausen
1.24
Hansa Rostock
1.21
Hannover 96
1.03
Dynamo Dresden
0.97
Erzgebirge Aue
0.94
Ingolstadt
0.88
Holstein Kiel is 0.38 goals better than Dynamo Dresden in terms of goals scored per game (1.35 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamburger SV
1.03
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.24
Werder Bremen
1.26
SC Paderborn 07
1.29
FC Schalke 04
1.29
1. FC Heidenheim
1.32
FC St. Pauli
1.35
SV Darmstadt 98
1.35
Dynamo Dresden
1.35
Hannover 96
1.44
1. FC Nürnberg
1.44
Regensburg
1.50
Hansa Rostock
1.53
Holstein Kiel
1.59
SV Sandhausen
1.59
Karlsruher SC
1.62
Ingolstadt
1.91
Erzgebirge Aue
2.12
Holstein Kiel is 0.24 goals worse than Dynamo Dresden in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.35).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Holstein Kiel
For 5.5 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 3.2 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 12.1 · Total 22.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dynamo Dresden
For 5.2 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 11.2 · Total 20.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Holstein Kiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.4
10.0
4.0
3.8
4.2
22.9
23.5
22.3
vs Stronger (3)
12.3
10.0
13.5
4.0
1.0
5.5
22.7
21.0
23.5
vs Similar (31)
10.4
10.1
10.6
3.8
4.1
3.5
22.5
23.4
21.5
vs Weaker (16)
7.9
8.0
7.9
4.3
3.6
5.3
23.8
23.9
23.7
% over line
52%
50%
54%
60%
62%
58%
66%
62%
71%
% under line
48%
50%
46%
40%
38%
42%
34%
38%
29%
This opponent (Dynamo Dresden) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dynamo Dresden
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.4
9.6
4.5
4.3
4.7
24.6
24.8
24.5
vs Stronger (12)
10.3
10.2
10.5
4.1
3.7
4.5
21.1
21.3
20.8
vs Similar (36)
9.3
9.3
9.2
4.5
4.4
4.7
25.4
25.3
25.5
vs Weaker (2)
7.5
5.0
10.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
32.0
35.0
29.0
% over line
46%
40%
52%
72%
72%
72%
70%
72%
68%
% under line
54%
60%
48%
28%
28%
28%
30%
28%
32%
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Hamburger SV
11.4
SV Sandhausen
11.1
1. FC Heidenheim
10.6
Karlsruher SC
10.3
SV Darmstadt 98
10.1
Ingolstadt
10.0
1. FC Nürnberg
9.8
Fortuna Düsseldorf
9.8
Holstein Kiel
9.7
Hannover 96
9.6
FC Schalke 04
9.5
Dynamo Dresden
9.5
SC Paderborn 07
9.4
Regensburg
9.4
FC St. Pauli
9.2
Werder Bremen
9.0
Erzgebirge Aue
8.9
Hansa Rostock
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SV Darmstadt 98
4.8
SV Sandhausen
4.7
Werder Bremen
4.6
Regensburg
4.5
Karlsruher SC
4.5
Dynamo Dresden
4.5
Hamburger SV
4.4
Hansa Rostock
4.4
SC Paderborn 07
4.4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
4.4
1. FC Nürnberg
4.3
Erzgebirge Aue
4.3
FC Schalke 04
4.2
Ingolstadt
4.0
Holstein Kiel
4.0
FC St. Pauli
4.0
Hannover 96
3.9
1. FC Heidenheim
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ingolstadt
28.2
Regensburg
28.2
Karlsruher SC
26.2
SV Sandhausen
25.8
FC St. Pauli
25.7
SV Darmstadt 98
25.6
Werder Bremen
25.6
Hamburger SV
25.5
1. FC Nürnberg
24.9
Dynamo Dresden
24.6
Hannover 96
24.5
Erzgebirge Aue
24.2
FC Schalke 04
24.1
SC Paderborn 07
24.0
Fortuna Düsseldorf
23.8
Hansa Rostock
23.8
Holstein Kiel
22.9
1. FC Heidenheim
21.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
51.7%
Under 9.5
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
66.5%
Under 3.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
60.6%
Under 21.5
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Holstein Kiel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.86
0.79
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
-
-
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.79
1.14
0.86
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (9)
0.89
0.56
0.57
0.71
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dynamo Dresden) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dynamo Dresden
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.83
0.43
0.71
0.19
0.94
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
0.62
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.75
vs Similar (21)
0.29
0.86
0.50
0.80
0.09
0.91
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Holstein Kiel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo Dresden over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo Dresden over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo Dresden over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Holstein Kiel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.64
0.50
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.74
0.43
0.71
0.83
0.75
vs Weaker (9)
0.67
0.44
0.86
0.29
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Dynamo Dresden) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dynamo Dresden
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.79
0.50
0.50
0.81
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.76
0.90
0.50
0.45
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Holstein Kiel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo Dresden over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo Dresden over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo Dresden over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Holstein Kiel · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Phil Harres75%
Guillermo Balzi50%
Jonas Therkelsen25%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kasper Davidsen75%
Ivan Nekić50%
Jonas Therkelsen50%
Hiroki Sekine50%
Timon Weiner33%
Leon Parduzi33%
Jonas Meffert25%
Guillermo Balzi25%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Phil Harres0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Phil Harres50%
Adrián Kaprálik50%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Guillermo Balzi0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Phil Harres75%
Guillermo Balzi25%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Dynamo Dresden · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jonas Sterner67%
Vincent Vermeij33%
Robert Wagner33%
Niklas Hauptmann0%
Alexander Rossipal0%
Nils Fröling0%
Thomas Keller0%
Tim Schreiber0%
Jakob Lemmer0%
Ben Bobzien0%
Kaan İnanoğlu0%
Friedrich Müller0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Thomas Keller100%
Ben Bobzien33%
Niklas Hauptmann0%
Alexander Rossipal0%
Vincent Vermeij0%
Nils Fröling0%
Tim Schreiber0%
Jakob Lemmer0%
Jonas Sterner0%
Robert Wagner0%
Kaan İnanoğlu0%
Friedrich Müller0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vincent Vermeij33%
Jonas Sterner33%
Ben Bobzien33%
Niklas Hauptmann0%
Alexander Rossipal0%
Nils Fröling0%
Thomas Keller0%
Tim Schreiber0%
Jakob Lemmer0%
Robert Wagner0%
Kaan İnanoğlu0%
Friedrich Müller0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vincent Vermeij33%
Jakob Lemmer33%
Ben Bobzien33%
Niklas Hauptmann0%
Alexander Rossipal0%
Nils Fröling0%
Thomas Keller0%
Tim Schreiber0%
Jonas Sterner0%
Robert Wagner0%
Kaan İnanoğlu0%
Friedrich Müller0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
FSP (27)
€46m
SP0 (33)
€43m
1FN (28)
€40m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
H9 (26)
€33m
KS (25)
€31m
SD9 (28)
€24m
DD (26)
€19m
FD (26)
€10m
HR (27)
€8m
ING (26)
€7m
EA (18)
€2m
Holstein Kiel's squad is €15m more valuable than Dynamo Dresden's (€34m vs €19m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WB (13)
€50m
HS (11)
€46m
FS0 (8)
€17m
KS (7)
€16m
1FH (11)
€15m
1FN (9)
€14m
SP0 (11)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
FSP (7)
€10m
H9 (9)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
DD (8)
€6m
HR (10)
€3m
ING (10)
€3m
FD (8)
€3m
EA (5)
€1m
Holstein Kiel's attack is €6m more valuable than Dynamo Dresden's (€12m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
FS0 (8)
€24m
SP0 (13)
€18m
FSP (8)
€15m
1FN (6)
€13m
H9 (8)
€11m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
DD (4)
€4m
KS (6)
€4m
FD (5)
€2m
HR (4)
€2m
ING (4)
€1m
EA (5)
€1m
Holstein Kiel's midfield is €2m more valuable than Dynamo Dresden's (€7m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
1FN (13)
€12m
1FH (11)
€12m
H9 (9)
€12m
KS (12)
€12m
SP0 (9)
€11m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
FD (13)
€5m
HR (13)
€3m
ING (12)
€3m
EA (8)
€1m
Holstein Kiel's defence is €7m more valuable than Dynamo Dresden's (€16m vs €8m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Schalke 04
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
SV Darmstadt 98
FC St. Pauli
1. FC Heidenheim
SC Paderborn 07
1. FC Nürnberg
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Hannover 96
Karlsruher SC
Hansa Rostock
SV Sandhausen
Erzgebirge Aue
Ingolstadt