This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC St. Pauli
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.27
2.47
0.80
1.20
1.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.57
1.48
2.00
1.00
1.18
1.91
vs Weaker (9)
2.44
0.78
3.40
0.40
1.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.9%
Under 1.5
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.0%
@ 1.52-0.1%
Under 2.5
38.0%
@ 2.49+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.7%
Under 3.5
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.2%
No
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.5%
2-2
6.6%
2-0
6.3%
1-0
6.1%
3-1
5.3%
0-0
5.1%
Holstein Kiel goals ↓
FC St. Pauli goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
4.9%
4.3%
2.0%
0.7%
1
6.1%
11%
7.5%
3.6%
1.3%
2
6.3%
9.1%
6.6%
3.2%
1.1%
3
3.7%
5.3%
3.8%
1.8%
0.7%
4
1.6%
2.3%
1.7%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Holstein Kiel goals (down), columns = FC St. Pauli goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Schalke 04
1.91
Werder Bremen
1.85
Hamburger SV
1.76
SV Darmstadt 98
1.76
FC St. Pauli
1.68
1. FC Heidenheim
1.53
SC Paderborn 07
1.50
1. FC Nürnberg
1.50
Holstein Kiel
1.32
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.29
Hannover 96
1.24
Karlsruher SC
1.21
Hansa Rostock
1.21
SV Sandhausen
1.21
Regensburg
1.18
Dynamo Dresden
0.94
Erzgebirge Aue
0.76
Ingolstadt
0.62
Holstein Kiel is 0.35 points worse than FC St. Pauli in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 1.68).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Schalke 04
2.12
SV Darmstadt 98
2.09
Hamburger SV
1.97
Werder Bremen
1.91
FC St. Pauli
1.79
SC Paderborn 07
1.65
Karlsruher SC
1.59
Regensburg
1.47
1. FC Nürnberg
1.44
Holstein Kiel
1.35
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.32
1. FC Heidenheim
1.26
SV Sandhausen
1.24
Hansa Rostock
1.21
Hannover 96
1.03
Dynamo Dresden
0.97
Erzgebirge Aue
0.94
Ingolstadt
0.88
Holstein Kiel is 0.44 goals worse than FC St. Pauli in terms of goals scored per game (1.35 vs 1.79).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamburger SV
1.03
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.24
Werder Bremen
1.26
SC Paderborn 07
1.29
FC Schalke 04
1.29
1. FC Heidenheim
1.32
FC St. Pauli
1.35
SV Darmstadt 98
1.35
Dynamo Dresden
1.35
Hannover 96
1.44
1. FC Nürnberg
1.44
Regensburg
1.50
Hansa Rostock
1.53
Holstein Kiel
1.59
SV Sandhausen
1.59
Karlsruher SC
1.62
Ingolstadt
1.91
Erzgebirge Aue
2.12
Holstein Kiel is 0.24 goals worse than FC St. Pauli in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.35).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Holstein Kiel
For 5.7 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 3.2 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.9 · Against 10.6 · Total 19.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC St. Pauli
For 5.7 · Against 3.8 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.4 · Against 13.3 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Holstein Kiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.7
10.0
3.9
3.8
4.1
22.0
21.9
22.2
vs Stronger (3)
12.3
10.0
13.5
4.0
1.0
5.5
22.7
21.0
23.5
vs Similar (32)
10.5
10.7
10.4
3.7
3.9
3.4
21.0
21.4
20.7
vs Weaker (15)
7.9
7.9
8.0
4.5
3.8
5.7
24.1
22.9
25.8
% over line
52%
52%
52%
56%
56%
56%
58%
48%
68%
% under line
48%
48%
48%
44%
44%
44%
42%
52%
32%
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC St. Pauli
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.2
9.8
4.0
3.6
4.4
25.5
23.8
27.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (35)
9.5
8.9
10.1
4.2
3.7
4.6
26.4
25.7
27.1
vs Weaker (15)
9.4
9.8
8.8
3.7
3.4
4.0
23.5
20.6
27.8
% over line
46%
44%
48%
52%
44%
60%
70%
60%
80%
% under line
54%
56%
52%
48%
56%
40%
30%
40%
20%
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Hamburger SV
11.6
SV Sandhausen
11.0
1. FC Heidenheim
10.8
Karlsruher SC
10.2
1. FC Nürnberg
9.9
Fortuna Düsseldorf
9.9
Ingolstadt
9.9
FC Schalke 04
9.9
Holstein Kiel
9.9
SV Darmstadt 98
9.8
Hannover 96
9.7
SC Paderborn 07
9.6
FC St. Pauli
9.5
Regensburg
9.5
Hansa Rostock
9.2
Dynamo Dresden
9.2
Erzgebirge Aue
9.0
Werder Bremen
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hansa Rostock
4.9
SV Darmstadt 98
4.7
SV Sandhausen
4.7
Dynamo Dresden
4.6
Werder Bremen
4.6
Regensburg
4.5
Karlsruher SC
4.5
Fortuna Düsseldorf
4.4
Hamburger SV
4.4
SC Paderborn 07
4.4
1. FC Nürnberg
4.3
Hannover 96
4.1
Ingolstadt
4.1
Erzgebirge Aue
4.1
FC St. Pauli
4.0
FC Schalke 04
4.0
Holstein Kiel
3.9
1. FC Heidenheim
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Regensburg
28.1
Ingolstadt
27.5
SV Darmstadt 98
26.1
FC St. Pauli
25.5
Karlsruher SC
25.4
Hamburger SV
25.3
Werder Bremen
25.0
Hansa Rostock
25.0
SV Sandhausen
25.0
Hannover 96
24.6
FC Schalke 04
24.2
Erzgebirge Aue
24.0
Dynamo Dresden
23.9
Fortuna Düsseldorf
23.9
1. FC Nürnberg
23.8
SC Paderborn 07
23.7
Holstein Kiel
22.0
1. FC Heidenheim
21.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
52.6%
Under 9.5
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
60.0%
Under 3.5
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
61.1%
Under 21.5
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Holstein Kiel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.73
0.87
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
-
-
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.89
0.75
0.88
0.36
0.91
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
0.67
0.71
0.86
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC St. Pauli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
1.13
0.20
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.67
0.90
0.30
0.45
1.00
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
0.22
1.60
0.00
0.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Holstein Kiel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Holstein Kiel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
0.80
0.53
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.84
0.75
0.62
0.82
1.00
vs Weaker (9)
0.67
0.56
0.86
0.43
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC St. Pauli
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.73
1.33
0.60
0.80
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.81
1.10
0.70
0.73
0.91
vs Weaker (9)
1.44
0.56
1.80
0.40
1.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Holstein Kiel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Holstein Kiel · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Phil Harres75%
Guillermo Balzi50%
Jonas Therkelsen25%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kasper Davidsen75%
Ivan Nekić50%
Jonas Therkelsen50%
Hiroki Sekine50%
Timon Weiner33%
Leon Parduzi33%
Jonas Meffert25%
Guillermo Balzi25%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Phil Harres0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Phil Harres50%
Adrián Kaprálik50%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Guillermo Balzi0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Phil Harres75%
Guillermo Balzi25%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
FC St. Pauli · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Taichi Hara25%
Martijn Kaars25%
Marcus Mathisen25%
Branimir Hrgota0%
David Nemeth0%
Eric Smith0%
Mathias Rasmussen0%
Ben Voll0%
Ricky-Jade Jones0%
Joel Chima Fujita0%
Arkadiusz Pyrka0%
Louis Oppie0%
Tomoya Ando0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcus Mathisen50%
Arkadiusz Pyrka50%
Ricky-Jade Jones33%
Joel Chima Fujita33%
David Nemeth25%
Mathias Rasmussen25%
Tomoya Ando25%
Branimir Hrgota0%
Eric Smith0%
Taichi Hara0%
Martijn Kaars0%
Ben Voll0%
Louis Oppie0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Branimir Hrgota25%
Taichi Hara25%
Arkadiusz Pyrka25%
David Nemeth0%
Eric Smith0%
Mathias Rasmussen0%
Martijn Kaars0%
Marcus Mathisen0%
Ben Voll0%
Ricky-Jade Jones0%
Joel Chima Fujita0%
Louis Oppie0%
Tomoya Ando0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Martijn Kaars75%
Branimir Hrgota25%
David Nemeth0%
Eric Smith0%
Mathias Rasmussen0%
Taichi Hara0%
Marcus Mathisen0%
Ben Voll0%
Ricky-Jade Jones0%
Joel Chima Fujita0%
Arkadiusz Pyrka0%
Louis Oppie0%
Tomoya Ando0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
FSP (27)
€46m
SP0 (33)
€43m
1FN (28)
€40m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
H9 (26)
€33m
KS (25)
€31m
SD9 (28)
€24m
DD (26)
€19m
FD (26)
€10m
HR (27)
€8m
ING (26)
€7m
EA (18)
€2m
Holstein Kiel's squad is €12m less valuable than FC St. Pauli's (€34m vs €46m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WB (13)
€50m
HS (11)
€46m
FS0 (8)
€17m
KS (7)
€16m
1FH (11)
€15m
1FN (9)
€14m
SP0 (11)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
FSP (7)
€10m
H9 (9)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
DD (8)
€6m
HR (10)
€3m
ING (10)
€3m
FD (8)
€3m
EA (5)
€1m
Holstein Kiel's attack is €2m more valuable than FC St. Pauli's (€12m vs €10m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
FS0 (8)
€24m
SP0 (13)
€18m
FSP (8)
€15m
1FN (6)
€13m
H9 (8)
€11m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
DD (4)
€4m
KS (6)
€4m
FD (5)
€2m
HR (4)
€2m
ING (4)
€1m
EA (5)
€1m
Holstein Kiel's midfield is €9m less valuable than FC St. Pauli's (€7m vs €15m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
1FN (13)
€12m
1FH (11)
€12m
H9 (9)
€12m
KS (12)
€12m
SP0 (9)
€11m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
FD (13)
€5m
HR (13)
€3m
ING (12)
€3m
EA (8)
€1m
Holstein Kiel's defence is €6m less valuable than FC St. Pauli's (€16m vs €21m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
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FC Schalke 04
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
SV Darmstadt 98
1. FC Heidenheim
SC Paderborn 07
1. FC Nürnberg
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Hannover 96
Karlsruher SC
Hansa Rostock
SV Sandhausen
Dynamo Dresden
Erzgebirge Aue
Ingolstadt