This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ingolstadt
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.77
1.19
1.62
1.00
1.93
vs Stronger (18)
0.94
1.83
0.90
1.70
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
1.33
1.67
1.67
1.50
1.00
1.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.0%
Under 1.5
12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
69.4%
Under 2.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
48.1%
Under 3.5
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.5%
No
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.4%
2-1
9.2%
3-0
8.2%
3-1
8.0%
1-1
7.8%
1-0
6.5%
4-0
5.3%
4-1
5.2%
Holstein Kiel goals ↓
Ingolstadt goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.5%
2.0%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
1
6.5%
7.8%
3.5%
1.1%
0.3%
2
9.4%
9.2%
4.5%
1.5%
0.4%
3
8.2%
8.0%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
4
5.3%
5.2%
2.6%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Holstein Kiel goals (down), columns = Ingolstadt goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
1. FC Köln
1.85
SC Paderborn 07
1.68
Union Berlin
1.68
Hamburger SV
1.65
1. FC Heidenheim
1.62
FC St. Pauli
1.44
Arminia Bielefeld
1.44
Holstein Kiel
1.44
Regensburg
1.44
SV Darmstadt 98
1.35
VfL Bochum
1.29
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.24
Dynamo Dresden
1.24
Erzgebirge Aue
1.18
SV Sandhausen
1.12
Ingolstadt
1.03
1. FC Magdeburg
0.91
Duisburg
0.82
Holstein Kiel is 0.41 points better than Ingolstadt in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
1. FC Köln
2.47
SC Paderborn 07
2.24
Holstein Kiel
1.76
1. FC Heidenheim
1.62
Regensburg
1.62
Union Berlin
1.59
Arminia Bielefeld
1.53
VfL Bochum
1.44
FC St. Pauli
1.35
Hamburger SV
1.32
SV Darmstadt 98
1.32
SV Sandhausen
1.32
Erzgebirge Aue
1.26
Ingolstadt
1.26
Dynamo Dresden
1.21
Duisburg
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.09
1. FC Magdeburg
1.03
Holstein Kiel is 0.50 goals better than Ingolstadt in terms of goals scored per game (1.76 vs 1.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Union Berlin
0.97
Hamburger SV
1.24
1. FC Heidenheim
1.32
1. FC Köln
1.38
Erzgebirge Aue
1.38
Dynamo Dresden
1.41
SC Paderborn 07
1.47
Arminia Bielefeld
1.47
VfL Bochum
1.47
Holstein Kiel
1.50
SV Sandhausen
1.53
FC St. Pauli
1.56
1. FC Magdeburg
1.56
SV Darmstadt 98
1.56
Regensburg
1.59
Ingolstadt
1.62
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.65
Duisburg
1.91
Holstein Kiel is 0.12 goals better than Ingolstadt in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.62).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Holstein Kiel
For 5.7 · Against 4.7 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 12.9 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ingolstadt
For 5.6 · Against 6.3 · Total 11.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 1.5 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 18.5 · Against 12.7 · Total 31.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Holstein Kiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (45)
10.0
10.1
10.0
4.5
4.4
4.6
27.5
27.5
27.6
vs Stronger (1)
14.0
-
14.0
4.0
-
4.0
22.0
-
22.0
vs Similar (32)
9.8
9.8
9.7
4.3
4.6
4.0
26.6
27.2
25.9
vs Weaker (12)
10.4
11.0
10.0
5.1
3.8
6.0
30.5
28.4
32.0
% over line
53%
55%
52%
71%
64%
78%
87%
86%
87%
% under line
47%
45%
48%
29%
36%
22%
13%
14%
13%
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ingolstadt
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
11.6
9.3
4.2
3.5
4.9
30.1
28.7
31.7
vs Stronger (32)
10.8
12.2
9.2
4.2
3.9
4.7
30.1
28.6
31.8
vs Similar (18)
9.9
10.3
9.4
4.1
2.9
5.3
30.2
28.9
31.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
69%
42%
64%
54%
75%
92%
88%
96%
% under line
44%
31%
58%
36%
46%
25%
8%
12%
4%
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
SC Paderborn 07
13.6
Hamburger SV
11.0
1. FC Köln
10.8
SV Darmstadt 98
10.5
Ingolstadt
10.5
Arminia Bielefeld
10.3
1. FC Heidenheim
10.3
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
10.1
Holstein Kiel
10.0
Regensburg
10.0
VfL Bochum
9.8
Union Berlin
9.6
FC St. Pauli
9.6
Dynamo Dresden
9.5
Erzgebirge Aue
9.2
SV Sandhausen
8.8
Duisburg
8.7
1. FC Magdeburg
7.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SC Paderborn 07
5.6
Regensburg
4.9
1. FC Heidenheim
4.5
Holstein Kiel
4.5
1. FC Magdeburg
4.5
Erzgebirge Aue
4.4
VfL Bochum
4.4
Duisburg
4.4
Dynamo Dresden
4.3
SV Sandhausen
4.3
Ingolstadt
4.2
SV Darmstadt 98
4.2
FC St. Pauli
4.1
Hamburger SV
3.9
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
3.9
1. FC Köln
3.8
Union Berlin
3.8
Arminia Bielefeld
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Sandhausen
30.8
Regensburg
30.6
Ingolstadt
30.1
1. FC Heidenheim
29.0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
28.9
Union Berlin
28.9
Erzgebirge Aue
28.6
Duisburg
28.4
1. FC Köln
28.2
SC Paderborn 07
28.1
VfL Bochum
28.0
Holstein Kiel
27.5
Dynamo Dresden
27.5
SV Darmstadt 98
27.4
Hamburger SV
27.1
1. FC Magdeburg
26.3
FC St. Pauli
26.1
Arminia Bielefeld
25.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.1%
Under 9.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
66.5%
Under 3.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
91.3%
Under 21.5
8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Holstein Kiel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.67
1.29
1.00
0.44
0.38
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.73
1.18
1.00
0.45
0.45
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.57
1.67
1.00
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ingolstadt
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.60
0.31
0.50
0.43
0.71
vs Stronger (18)
0.22
0.78
0.20
0.70
0.25
0.88
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.33
0.50
0.17
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Holstein Kiel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Holstein Kiel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.70
0.93
0.43
0.94
0.94
vs Stronger (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.73
0.91
0.55
0.64
0.91
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.71
1.00
0.00
1.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ingolstadt
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.17
0.88
1.12
0.57
1.21
vs Stronger (18)
0.72
1.06
0.70
1.00
0.75
1.12
vs Similar (12)
0.75
1.33
1.17
1.33
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Holstein Kiel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home win
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 25.5 fouls
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Holstein Kiel · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Phil Harres75%
Guillermo Balzi50%
Jonas Therkelsen25%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kasper Davidsen75%
Ivan Nekić50%
Jonas Therkelsen50%
Hiroki Sekine50%
Timon Weiner33%
Leon Parduzi33%
Jonas Meffert25%
Guillermo Balzi25%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Phil Harres0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Phil Harres50%
Adrián Kaprálik50%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Guillermo Balzi0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Phil Harres75%
Guillermo Balzi25%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
1FK (74)
€133m
UB (29)
€123m
HS (28)
€117m
FSP (27)
€46m
SP0 (33)
€43m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
SD9 (28)
€24m
1FM (26)
€21m
VB (24)
€19m
DD (26)
€19m
SGF (24)
€19m
AB (23)
€18m
DUI (26)
€9m
ING (26)
€7m
EA (18)
€2m
Holstein Kiel's squad is €27m more valuable than Ingolstadt's (€34m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
1FK (25)
€72m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
1FH (11)
€15m
SP0 (11)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
1FM (9)
€10m
FSP (7)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
AB (8)
€7m
DD (8)
€6m
VB (9)
€6m
SGF (6)
€4m
DUI (12)
€4m
ING (10)
€3m
EA (5)
€1m
Holstein Kiel's attack is €9m more valuable than Ingolstadt's (€12m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (5)
€34m
UB (6)
€26m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
FSP (8)
€15m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
SGF (8)
€5m
VB (4)
€5m
DD (4)
€4m
1FM (4)
€4m
AB (5)
€4m
DUI (4)
€2m
ING (4)
€1m
EA (5)
€1m
Holstein Kiel's midfield is €5m more valuable than Ingolstadt's (€7m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (13)
€50m
1FK (33)
€43m
HS (12)
€37m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
1FH (11)
€12m
SP0 (9)
€11m
SGF (10)
€9m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
VB (11)
€8m
AB (10)
€7m
1FM (13)
€7m
ING (12)
€3m
DUI (10)
€3m
EA (8)
€1m
Holstein Kiel's defence is €12m more valuable than Ingolstadt's (€16m vs €3m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
1. FC Köln
SC Paderborn 07
Union Berlin
Hamburger SV
1. FC Heidenheim
Arminia Bielefeld
FC St. Pauli
SV Darmstadt 98
VfL Bochum
Dynamo Dresden
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Erzgebirge Aue
SV Sandhausen
1. FC Magdeburg
Duisburg