This opponent (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.70
1.60
1.47
0.53
1.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.25
1.00
0.50
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (16)
1.25
2.12
2.00
2.00
0.67
2.22
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.80
1.33
1.17
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.9%
Under 1.5
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.7%
Under 2.5
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.4%
Under 3.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.2%
No
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.3%
3-0
9.7%
1-0
9.5%
2-1
9.3%
1-1
8.6%
3-1
7.4%
4-0
5.8%
0-0
5.1%
Holstein Kiel goals ↓
SpVgg Greuther Fürth goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
2.5%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
1
9.5%
8.6%
3.0%
0.8%
0.1%
2
12%
9.3%
3.6%
0.9%
0.2%
3
9.7%
7.4%
2.8%
0.7%
0.1%
4
5.8%
4.4%
1.7%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Holstein Kiel goals (down), columns = SpVgg Greuther Fürth goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
1. FC Köln
1.85
SC Paderborn 07
1.68
Union Berlin
1.68
Hamburger SV
1.65
1. FC Heidenheim
1.62
FC St. Pauli
1.44
Arminia Bielefeld
1.44
Holstein Kiel
1.44
Regensburg
1.44
SV Darmstadt 98
1.35
VfL Bochum
1.29
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.24
Dynamo Dresden
1.24
Erzgebirge Aue
1.18
SV Sandhausen
1.12
Ingolstadt
1.03
1. FC Magdeburg
0.91
Duisburg
0.82
Holstein Kiel is 0.21 points better than SpVgg Greuther Fürth in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 1.24).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
1. FC Köln
2.47
SC Paderborn 07
2.24
Holstein Kiel
1.76
1. FC Heidenheim
1.62
Regensburg
1.62
Union Berlin
1.59
Arminia Bielefeld
1.53
VfL Bochum
1.44
FC St. Pauli
1.35
Hamburger SV
1.32
SV Darmstadt 98
1.32
SV Sandhausen
1.32
Erzgebirge Aue
1.26
Ingolstadt
1.26
Dynamo Dresden
1.21
Duisburg
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.09
1. FC Magdeburg
1.03
Holstein Kiel is 0.68 goals better than SpVgg Greuther Fürth in terms of goals scored per game (1.76 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Union Berlin
0.97
Hamburger SV
1.24
1. FC Heidenheim
1.32
1. FC Köln
1.38
Erzgebirge Aue
1.38
Dynamo Dresden
1.41
SC Paderborn 07
1.47
Arminia Bielefeld
1.47
VfL Bochum
1.47
Holstein Kiel
1.50
SV Sandhausen
1.53
FC St. Pauli
1.56
1. FC Magdeburg
1.56
SV Darmstadt 98
1.56
Regensburg
1.59
Ingolstadt
1.62
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.65
Duisburg
1.91
Holstein Kiel is 0.15 goals better than SpVgg Greuther Fürth in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.65).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Holstein Kiel
For 5.3 · Against 5.8 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 14.9 · Total 25.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
For 4.8 · Against 6.6 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.9 · Against 13.6 · Total 28.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Holstein Kiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.4
10.5
4.3
4.1
4.4
26.6
27.0
26.3
vs Stronger (2)
13.5
13.0
14.0
3.0
2.0
4.0
25.5
29.0
22.0
vs Similar (34)
10.4
10.3
10.4
4.1
4.4
3.9
26.0
26.9
25.1
vs Weaker (14)
10.2
10.3
10.1
4.8
3.9
5.7
28.4
26.9
29.9
% over line
60%
62%
58%
64%
54%
73%
82%
83%
81%
% under line
40%
38%
42%
36%
46%
27%
18%
17%
19%
This opponent (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.6
10.5
4.1
4.9
3.4
28.7
29.1
28.2
vs Stronger (5)
11.0
10.5
11.3
2.6
2.5
2.7
25.8
27.0
25.0
vs Similar (31)
10.6
11.0
10.3
4.5
5.4
3.5
29.1
29.8
28.5
vs Weaker (14)
10.3
9.9
10.7
3.9
4.3
3.6
28.6
28.1
29.1
% over line
58%
68%
48%
62%
80%
44%
92%
96%
88%
% under line
42%
32%
52%
38%
20%
56%
8%
4%
12%
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
SC Paderborn 07
11.2
1. FC Köln
10.7
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
10.6
Holstein Kiel
10.5
1. FC Heidenheim
10.4
Arminia Bielefeld
10.4
Regensburg
10.3
Hamburger SV
10.3
Ingolstadt
10.2
SV Darmstadt 98
10.1
Union Berlin
9.9
VfL Bochum
9.7
Erzgebirge Aue
9.6
FC St. Pauli
9.5
Dynamo Dresden
9.0
Duisburg
8.9
SV Sandhausen
8.7
1. FC Magdeburg
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SC Paderborn 07
5.3
Regensburg
4.7
1. FC Magdeburg
4.7
Erzgebirge Aue
4.6
1. FC Heidenheim
4.6
Duisburg
4.5
VfL Bochum
4.5
SV Darmstadt 98
4.5
Dynamo Dresden
4.4
1. FC Köln
4.3
Holstein Kiel
4.3
SV Sandhausen
4.3
FC St. Pauli
4.2
Ingolstadt
4.2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
4.1
Union Berlin
3.9
Hamburger SV
3.9
Arminia Bielefeld
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Regensburg
30.3
Ingolstadt
30.0
SV Sandhausen
30.0
1. FC Köln
29.1
VfL Bochum
28.7
Duisburg
28.7
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
28.7
Union Berlin
28.6
SC Paderborn 07
28.3
1. FC Heidenheim
28.3
Erzgebirge Aue
27.9
SV Darmstadt 98
27.8
Dynamo Dresden
27.5
1. FC Magdeburg
27.0
Hamburger SV
26.8
Arminia Bielefeld
26.8
Holstein Kiel
26.6
FC St. Pauli
26.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
64.4%
Under 9.5
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
57.4%
Under 3.5
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
87.4%
Under 21.5
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Holstein Kiel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.63
1.14
0.71
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.86
1.10
1.00
0.64
0.73
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.14
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.07
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (16)
0.19
1.00
0.43
0.71
0.00
1.22
vs Weaker (10)
0.20
0.00
0.17
0.00
0.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Holstein Kiel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Holstein Kiel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.63
0.93
0.64
1.38
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.95
0.62
0.90
0.50
1.00
0.73
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
0.71
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.03
1.27
1.13
0.47
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.25
0.50
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (16)
1.06
1.12
1.57
1.29
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
0.80
1.17
1.17
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Holstein Kiel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Holstein Kiel · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Phil Harres75%
Guillermo Balzi50%
Jonas Therkelsen25%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kasper Davidsen75%
Ivan Nekić50%
Jonas Therkelsen50%
Hiroki Sekine50%
Timon Weiner33%
Leon Parduzi33%
Jonas Meffert25%
Guillermo Balzi25%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Phil Harres0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Phil Harres50%
Adrián Kaprálik50%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Guillermo Balzi0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Phil Harres75%
Guillermo Balzi25%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Felix Klaus75%
Ole Pohlmann25%
Paul Will0%
Dennis Srbeny0%
Jannik Dehm0%
Luca Itter0%
Krisztián Keresztes0%
Shinta Appelkamp0%
Jannis Heuer0%
Aaron Keller0%
Omar Sillah0%
Sacha Banse0%
Florian Hellstern0%
Lukas Reich0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Paul Will25%
Krisztián Keresztes25%
Jannis Heuer25%
Aaron Keller25%
Dennis Srbeny0%
Jannik Dehm0%
Luca Itter0%
Felix Klaus0%
Shinta Appelkamp0%
Ole Pohlmann0%
Omar Sillah0%
Sacha Banse0%
Florian Hellstern0%
Lukas Reich0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Omar Sillah33%
Dennis Srbeny25%
Jannik Dehm25%
Luca Itter25%
Paul Will0%
Felix Klaus0%
Krisztián Keresztes0%
Shinta Appelkamp0%
Jannis Heuer0%
Ole Pohlmann0%
Aaron Keller0%
Sacha Banse0%
Florian Hellstern0%
Lukas Reich0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Felix Klaus50%
Ole Pohlmann25%
Sacha Banse25%
Paul Will0%
Dennis Srbeny0%
Jannik Dehm0%
Luca Itter0%
Krisztián Keresztes0%
Shinta Appelkamp0%
Jannis Heuer0%
Aaron Keller0%
Omar Sillah0%
Florian Hellstern0%
Lukas Reich0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
1FK (74)
€133m
UB (29)
€123m
HS (28)
€117m
FSP (27)
€46m
SP0 (33)
€43m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
SD9 (28)
€24m
1FM (26)
€21m
VB (24)
€19m
DD (26)
€19m
SGF (24)
€19m
AB (23)
€18m
DUI (26)
€9m
ING (26)
€7m
EA (18)
€2m
Holstein Kiel's squad is €15m more valuable than SpVgg Greuther Fürth's (€34m vs €19m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
1FK (25)
€72m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
1FH (11)
€15m
SP0 (11)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
1FM (9)
€10m
FSP (7)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
AB (8)
€7m
DD (8)
€6m
VB (9)
€6m
SGF (6)
€4m
DUI (12)
€4m
ING (10)
€3m
EA (5)
€1m
Holstein Kiel's attack is €8m more valuable than SpVgg Greuther Fürth's (€12m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (5)
€34m
UB (6)
€26m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
FSP (8)
€15m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
SGF (8)
€5m
VB (4)
€5m
DD (4)
€4m
1FM (4)
€4m
AB (5)
€4m
DUI (4)
€2m
ING (4)
€1m
EA (5)
€1m
Holstein Kiel's midfield is €1m more valuable than SpVgg Greuther Fürth's (€7m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (13)
€50m
1FK (33)
€43m
HS (12)
€37m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
1FH (11)
€12m
SP0 (9)
€11m
SGF (10)
€9m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
VB (11)
€8m
AB (10)
€7m
1FM (13)
€7m
ING (12)
€3m
DUI (10)
€3m
EA (8)
€1m
Holstein Kiel's defence is €6m more valuable than SpVgg Greuther Fürth's (€16m vs €9m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
1. FC Köln
SC Paderborn 07
Union Berlin
Hamburger SV
1. FC Heidenheim
Arminia Bielefeld
FC St. Pauli
SV Darmstadt 98
VfL Bochum
Dynamo Dresden
Erzgebirge Aue
SV Sandhausen
Ingolstadt
1. FC Magdeburg
Duisburg