Holyhead Hotspur are favoured to win at home against Bangor City 1876 FC, with a recent-form note that they're coming off a defeat. The home side has struggled to score at home, averaging 1.82 goals per match against stronger opponents, while conceding 1.09 goals. Bangor City 1876 FC, on the other hand, has scored 1.25 goals on average when playing away against weaker opponents, but conceded 3.0 goals.
The model predicts a 48% chance of a home win, 25% chance of a draw, and 26% chance of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 3.1, with the most likely total being 2. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.5%. The model suggests Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 82.7%.
In terms of scoring and conceding, Holyhead Hotspur averages 1.82 goals at home and 1.09 conceded, while Bangor City 1876 FC averages 1.25 goals away and 3.0 conceded.
The model's selections are: Home win (48%), Draw (25%), Away win (26%), Over 1.5 (82.7%).
The pre-match favourite, Holyhead Hotspur, failed to deliver as the away side edged a 3-2 victory, ending their three-game losing streak with a win that extended Bangor City 1876 FC’s three-match winning run. The model had picked a home win with a 48 % probability, but this call was wrong. Every suggested selection was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 98.5 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.4 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.6 %, Under 6.5 hit at 96.1 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 95.7 %, Under 5.5 hit at 90.4 %, Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 89.1 %, and Under 2.5 HT goals missed at 89.0 %. The final score of 2-3 confirmed the away win.
Holyhead Hotspur| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.63 | 1.57 | 2.00 | 1.29 | 1.15 | 1.92 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.67 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.70 | 1.55 | 2.10 | 1.10 | 1.30 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 2.25 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Bangor City 1876 FC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.57 | 2.00 | 1.94 | 1.75 | 1.14 | 2.29 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.22 | 1.78 | 1.88 | 1.25 | 0.70 | 2.20 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 2.08 | 2.33 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| Bangor City 1876 FC goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 7.0% | 12% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 7.3% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 4.4% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Holyhead Hotspur| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.70 | 0.88 | 0.82 | 0.69 | 0.54 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.50 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.90 | 0.55 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.75 | 1.25 | 0.75 | 1.25 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Bangor City 1876 FC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.69 | 0.43 | 1.14 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.50 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 1.10 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 1.08 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.88 | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Holyhead Hotspur| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.87 | 1.12 | 0.47 | 0.46 | 1.38 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.80 | 1.00 | 1.10 | 0.30 | 0.50 | 1.70 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.50 | 0.75 | 1.50 | 0.75 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Bangor City 1876 FC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 1.10 | 0.94 | 1.06 | 0.71 | 1.14 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.72 | 0.94 | 0.88 | 0.75 | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.38 | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 98.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 98.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 96.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 6.5 | 96.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 95.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 | 90.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 89.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 89.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 88.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home +2 handicap | 88.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 86.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 85.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 83.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 82.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 | 79.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Home or Away | 74.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Draw | 73.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Home +1 handicap | 73.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 72.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 72.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away +2 handicap | 72.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 72.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Holyhead Hotspur| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 08/08/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 31/07/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 31/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 1-0 |
Bangor City 1876 FC| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 31/07/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 31/01/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 13/12/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 22/11/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 18/10/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 20/09/25 | A | 0-6 | |
| 12/04/25 | A | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 3 | Brickfield Rangers | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 3.8 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Bala Town | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | - |
| 6 | Newtown AFC | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 13 | 1 | +12 | 3.5 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 0.2 | - |
| 7 | Mold Alexandra | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 60% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 8 | Carmarthen Town | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 2.2 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | - |
| 10 | Baglan Dragons | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 1.8 | 40% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 11 | Aberystwyth Town | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 4.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 12 | Treowen Stars | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 13 | Caersws | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Ynyshir Albions | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.8 | 50% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 15 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 16 | Guilsfield | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 3.4 | 100% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 17 | Afan Lido | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.8 | 80% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.6 | - |
| 18 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 9 | 9 | +0 | 3.6 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | - |
| 19 | Denbigh Town | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 20 | Rhyl | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3.2 | 75% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 21 | Buckley Town | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 22 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | Caerau (Ely) | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 5.0 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 24 | Ruthin Town | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3.4 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.2 | - |
| 25 | Caerphilly Athletic | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2.2 | 75% | 75% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 26 | Holyhead Hotspur | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 28 | Llanuwchllyn | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 4.5 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 3.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 3.0 | - |
| 31 | Gresford Athletic | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 12 | -12 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 32 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |