Holyhead Hotspur is expected to come out on top in this encounter, with a recent surge in form having seen them win three consecutive matches. The model predicts a home win, with a 55% probability of this outcome, alongside a 24% chance of a draw and a 21% probability of a Brickfield Rangers victory.
The expected total number of goals in this match is 3.0, with the most likely score being 2-0, although this outcome has a relatively low probability of 8.9%. A draw, specifically 1-1, is also a possible outcome with a 11.5% chance.
Holyhead Hotspur have been scoring an average of 1.77 goals and conceding 1.15 when playing at home against stronger opponents. Conversely, Brickfield Rangers have struggled to score on the road, averaging 0 goals, but have conceded an average of 3 goals against weaker opponents.
The model's selection is Over 1.5, with an 81.2% probability. Additionally, the model suggests a Home win with a 55% probability, a Draw with a 24% probability, and an Away win with a 21% probability. Brickfield Rangers' Away win percentage is 21%, the Draw percentage is 24%, and Holyhead Hotspur's Home win percentage is 55%.
The upset of the day comes from the Wales: FAW Championship, where Brickfield Rangers stunned Holyhead Hotspur 1-2. This win extends their 3-game winning run, which was sparked by a 2-1 victory over Holyhead Hotspur just last time out. The model's selection, a Home win, was wrong, with a pre-match probability of 55%. The model's call was correct for an Over 1.5 goals, which hit with a probability of 81.2%. The model's selection, a Home win, was the favourite, but it failed to deliver.
Holyhead Hotspur| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.70 | 1.63 | 1.94 | 1.24 | 1.38 | 2.15 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 1.20 | 1.40 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.65 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.30 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.25 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Brickfield Rangers| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 1.67 | 1.75 | 1.25 | 1.07 | 2.14 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.89 | 1.16 | 2.20 | 1.00 | 1.56 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.64 | 2.55 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 0.20 | 3.60 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Brickfield Rangers goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 8.4% | 11% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 8.9% | 9.9% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 5.6% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Holyhead Hotspur| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.90 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.90 | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.60 | 1.60 | 0.75 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Brickfield Rangers| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.38 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.79 | 0.37 | 0.70 | 0.20 | 0.89 | 0.56 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.18 | 0.73 | 0.17 | 0.67 | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+45pp vs league) | |||||
Holyhead Hotspur| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.83 | 1.06 | 0.35 | 0.69 | 1.46 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.75 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.10 | 0.50 | 1.70 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.80 | 0.80 | 1.50 | 0.75 | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Brickfield Rangers| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 1.17 | 1.25 | 0.88 | 0.43 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.11 | 0.79 | 1.50 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.45 | 1.82 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.80 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 81.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 20/12/25 | A | 4-0 |
Holyhead Hotspur| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 31/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 01/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/02/26 | H | 3-0 |
Brickfield Rangers| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 0-6 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 17/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 10/03/26 | H | 0-5 | |
| 06/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 03/03/26 | H | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |