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Holyhead Hotspur vs Mold Alexandra Result & Analysis

Date: 01/10/2022
Time: 13:30
Final 2-2
Holyhead Hotspur
Holyhead Hotspur
Vs
57%
23%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mold Alexandra
Mold Alexandra
Wales: FAW Championship
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Holyhead Hotspur win✗ Miss
57.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mold Alexandra win✗ Miss
19.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Holyhead HotspurHolyhead Hotspur

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D02L20W23L11DA·HOL30/07H·CON02/08A·CEF13/08H·BUC20/08H·LLA29/08A·POR23/09
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.171.671.330.331.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)1.001.171.671.330.331.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Mold Alexandra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Mold AlexandraMold Alexandra

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L40W10W31W04L10W12LA·GUI30/07H·LLA02/08A·GRE12/08H·PEN20/08A·COL29/08H·CHI06/09H·RUT24/09
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.572.250.750.332.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)1.002.202.001.500.332.67
vs Weaker (2)2.500.002.500.00--
Clean sheet %43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Holyhead Hotspur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.5%
Under 1.5
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.4%
Under 2.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.1%
Under 3.5
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.8%
No
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
8.8%
1-0
7.6%
3-1
6.7%
3-0
6.0%
2-2 ✓
5.6%
1-2
5.5%
Holyhead Hotspur goals ↓
Mold Alexandra goals →
01234
05.2%3.8%2.7%1.0%0.3%
17.6%11%5.5%2.1%0.6%
28.8%9.9%5.6%2.1%0.6%
36.0%6.7%3.8%1.4%0.4%
43.0%3.4%1.9%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Holyhead Hotspur goals (down), columns = Mold Alexandra goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Colwyn Bay
2.77
Holywell
2.63
Barry Town
2.60
Llandudno
2.20
llanelli AFC
2.07
Briton Ferry
2.00
Guilsfield
1.90
Carmarthen Town
1.73
Ruthin Town
1.70
Afan Lido
1.57
Cambrian & Clydach
1.57
Prestatyn Town
1.53
Llantwit Major
1.50
Cefn Druids AFC
1.43
Buckley Town
1.40
Cwmbran Celtic
1.27
Pontardawe Town
1.23
Gresford Athletic
1.17
Mold Alexandra
1.17
Ammanford AFC
1.10
Porthmadog
1.10
Taffs Well
1.07
Goytre United
1.07
Abergavenny Town
1.07
Trefelin
0.90
Llanidloes Town
0.90
Chirk AAA
0.87
Swansea University
0.87
Ynyshir Albions
0.80
Conwy Borough
0.77
Penrhyncoch
0.53
Holyhead Hotspur
0.50
Holyhead Hotspur is 0.67 points worse than Mold Alexandra in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 1.17).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Colwyn Bay
3.37
Barry Town
2.60
Holywell
2.50
Briton Ferry
2.40
Llandudno
2.33
Prestatyn Town
2.20
Carmarthen Town
2.20
Cambrian & Clydach
2.13
llanelli AFC
2.10
Cwmbran Celtic
2.07
Afan Lido
2.03
Guilsfield
1.93
Buckley Town
1.77
Pontardawe Town
1.70
Taffs Well
1.67
Trefelin
1.57
Cefn Druids AFC
1.57
Ruthin Town
1.57
Llantwit Major
1.53
Goytre United
1.50
Llanidloes Town
1.40
Mold Alexandra
1.37
Ammanford AFC
1.33
Porthmadog
1.20
Abergavenny Town
1.17
Conwy Borough
1.10
Ynyshir Albions
1.10
Chirk AAA
1.07
Gresford Athletic
1.07
Penrhyncoch
1.03
Swansea University
1.00
Holyhead Hotspur
0.80
Holyhead Hotspur is 0.57 goals worse than Mold Alexandra in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 1.37).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Holywell
0.73
Llandudno
0.77
Colwyn Bay
0.80
Barry Town
0.83
Briton Ferry
1.10
llanelli AFC
1.13
Guilsfield
1.23
Llantwit Major
1.33
Carmarthen Town
1.37
Gresford Athletic
1.43
Ruthin Town
1.47
Prestatyn Town
1.60
Chirk AAA
1.63
Afan Lido
1.73
Mold Alexandra
1.73
Porthmadog
1.77
Cambrian & Clydach
1.77
Cwmbran Celtic
1.77
Taffs Well
1.80
Ammanford AFC
1.90
Abergavenny Town
2.00
Buckley Town
2.03
Llanidloes Town
2.10
Conwy Borough
2.13
Swansea University
2.13
Cefn Druids AFC
2.13
Ynyshir Albions
2.23
Goytre United
2.23
Holyhead Hotspur
2.30
Trefelin
2.33
Penrhyncoch
2.40
Pontardawe Town
2.43
Holyhead Hotspur is 0.57 goals worse than Mold Alexandra in terms of goals conceded per game (2.30 vs 1.73).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Holyhead HotspurHolyhead Hotspur

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D02L00D11D11DA·HOL30/07H·CON02/08A·CEF13/08H·BUC20/08H·LLA29/08A·POR23/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.830.670.670.331.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.500.830.670.670.331.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Mold Alexandra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Mold AlexandraMold Alexandra

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L10W10W11D01L10W01LA·GUI30/07H·LLA02/08A·GRE12/08H·PEN20/08A·COL29/08H·CHI06/09H·RUT24/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.860.750.500.331.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)0.401.200.501.000.331.33
vs Weaker (2)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Holyhead Hotspur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Holyhead Hotspur over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holyhead Hotspur over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holyhead Hotspur over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mold Alexandra over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mold Alexandra over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mold Alexandra over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Holyhead HotspurHolyhead Hotspur

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D20W12L00DA·HOL30/07H·CON02/08A·CEF13/08H·BUC20/08H·LLA29/08A·POR23/09
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.331.000.670.000.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.500.331.000.670.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %83% (+61pp vs league)
This opponent (Mold Alexandra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Mold AlexandraMold Alexandra

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L30W00D20W03L00D11DA·GUI30/07H·LLA02/08A·GRE12/08H·PEN20/08A·COL29/08H·CHI06/09H·RUT24/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.860.711.500.250.001.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)0.601.001.500.500.001.33
vs Weaker (2)1.500.001.500.00--
Clean sheet %57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Holyhead Hotspur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Holyhead Hotspur over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holyhead Hotspur over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holyhead Hotspur over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mold Alexandra over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mold Alexandra over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mold Alexandra over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CB (20)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CB (7)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (10)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
HH wins
0
Draws
0
MA wins

Head-to-head

Holyhead Hotspur vs Mold Alexandra · H/A from HH
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Holyhead HotspurHolyhead Hotspur

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/09/22APorthmadog Vs HH1-1
29/08/22HHH Vs Llanidloes Town2-3
20/08/22HHH Vs Buckley Town2-0
13/08/22ACefn Druids AFC Vs HH2-0
02/08/22HHH Vs Conwy Borough1-1
30/07/22AHolywell Vs HH0-0

Mold AlexandraMold Alexandra

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/09/22HMA Vs Ruthin Town1-2
06/09/22HMA Vs Chirk AAA1-0
29/08/22AColwyn Bay Vs MA4-0
20/08/22HMA Vs Penrhyncoch3-1
12/08/22AGresford Athletic Vs MA0-1
02/08/22HMA Vs Llanidloes Town4-0
30/07/22AGuilsfield Vs MA4-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Holyhead Hotspur
Holyhead Hotspur
Wales: FAW Championship
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLD1.00
HomeDWL1.33
AwayDLD0.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %17%33%0%
AVG goals2.173.001.33
Over 1.5 %83%100%67%
Over 2.5 %17%33%0%
Over 3.5 %17%33%0%
Scored1.001.670.33
Conceded1.171.331.00
BTTS50%67%33%
Clean Sheet33%33%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Mold Alexandra
Mold Alexandra
Wales: FAW Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWL1.71
HomeWWWL2.25
AwayLWL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %57%75%33%
AVG goals3.003.003.00
Over 1.5 %71%75%67%
Over 2.5 %71%75%67%
Over 3.5 %57%50%67%
Scored1.432.250.33
Conceded1.570.752.67
BTTS29%50%0%
Clean Sheet43%50%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Colwyn BayColwyn Bay3083
90%
2.8
10124+77
4.2
100%
77%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0003.40.8
-
2HolywellHolywell3079
87%
2.6
7522+53
3.2
93%
67%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.50.7
-
3Barry TownBarry Town3078
83%
2.6
7825+53
3.4
80%
67%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.60.8
-
4LlandudnoLlandudno3066
67%
2.2
7023+47
3.1
80%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.8
-
5llanelli AFCllanelli AFC3062
63%
2.1
6334+29
3.2
77%
57%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.1
-
6Briton FerryBriton Ferry3060
57%
2.0
7233+39
3.5
87%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.41.1
-
7GuilsfieldGuilsfield3057
57%
1.9
5837+21
3.2
80%
70%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.2
-
8Carmarthen TownCarmarthen Town3052
53%
1.7
6641+25
3.6
80%
70%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.4
-
9Ruthin TownRuthin Town3051
53%
1.7
4744+3
3.0
83%
63%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.5
-
10Cambrian & ClydachCambrian & Clydach3047
47%
1.6
6453+11
3.9
87%
70%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.8
-
11Afan LidoAfan Lido3047
43%
1.6
6152+9
3.8
93%
67%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.7
-
12Prestatyn TownPrestatyn Town3046
47%
1.5
6648+18
3.8
93%
73%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.6
-
13Llantwit MajorLlantwit Major3045
43%
1.5
4640+6
2.9
77%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
14Cefn Druids AFCCefn Druids AFC3043
43%
1.4
4764-17
3.7
90%
70%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.1
-
15Buckley TownBuckley Town3042
40%
1.4
5361-8
3.8
90%
73%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.0
-
16Cwmbran CelticCwmbran Celtic3038
33%
1.3
6253+9
3.8
90%
70%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.8
-
17Pontardawe TownPontardawe Town3037
40%
1.2
5173-22
4.1
93%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.4
-
18Mold AlexandraMold Alexandra3035
33%
1.2
4152-11
3.1
83%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.7
-
19Gresford AthleticGresford Athletic3035
33%
1.2
3243-11
2.5
70%
47%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
20Ammanford AFCAmmanford AFC3033
27%
1.1
4057-17
3.2
87%
60%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
21PorthmadogPorthmadog3033
33%
1.1
3653-17
3.0
87%
63%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
-
22Taffs WellTaffs Well3032
27%
1.1
5054-4
3.5
80%
57%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.8
-
23Goytre UnitedGoytre United3032
27%
1.1
4567-22
3.7
93%
67%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.2
-
24Abergavenny TownAbergavenny Town3032
30%
1.1
3560-25
3.2
80%
53%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
25Llanidloes TownLlanidloes Town3027
23%
0.9
4263-21
3.5
93%
73%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.1
-
26TrefelinTrefelin3027
23%
0.9
4770-23
3.9
97%
83%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.3
-
27Chirk AAAChirk AAA3026
17%
0.9
3249-17
2.7
77%
47%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.6
-
28Swansea UniversitySwansea University3026
20%
0.9
3064-34
3.1
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.1
-
29Ynyshir AlbionsYnyshir Albions3024
23%
0.8
3367-34
3.3
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.2
-
30Conwy BoroughConwy Borough3023
17%
0.8
3364-31
3.2
83%
60%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.1
-
31PenrhyncochPenrhyncoch3016
10%
0.5
3172-41
3.4
93%
67%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.4
-
32Holyhead HotspurHolyhead Hotspur3015
7%
0.5
2469-45
3.1
90%
60%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.3
-
Wales: FAW Championship 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: FAW Championship stats & trends →

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